Exxon Mobil

Prospero · Senior Poster Joined: 01 Mar 2006 Posts: 82

I like Exxon Mobil here. I bought some earlier today. Technically, it seems to have broken through long term resistance at $65. Considering the last month's collapse in energy markets, the price is reacting very well, having pulled back to support. If energy prices rebound from here, and the Dow continues its ascent, there could be a double whammy of good news for the stock. If not, the downside risk seems to be limited.

I also quite like Conoco Phillips. The technical picture isn't so rosy, but it could be aided by the same factors (rising Dow/Energy) and at a P.E of 5.5 or so it looks very cheap.

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?XOM

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?COP

Any thoughts?

HenryTo · Posted: Sun Oct 08, 2006 11:23 am Post subject:

Speaking of ethanol, here is a recent update:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/local/harford/bal-ha.farm08oct08,0,6781448.story?coll=bal-local-harford

The best situation for the bulls in the longer run is for crude oil to now "dip back" to below $50 a barrel. This will halt the construction of ethanol plants, make the production of oil sands very marginal, and halt VC funding for alternative energy companies. A year-long base of between $40 to $48 a barrel would be very bullish for crude oil prices for the rest of this decade.

rffrydr · Posted: Sun Oct 08, 2006 10:03 am Post subject:

Like I said, this would be a logical spot for another leg up esp. if you believe market will respond as it did before with coordinated OPEC cut. Then not only would I be wrong (wah!) it wouldn't be a "bear" market.

By the time it's called a "bear" you better be fast on your feet to dodge the short-covering rally to make any decent money. Knowlege, like all monuments, is an ending. It's also why you start by selling calls. Way up top is always an iffy proposition--but it's the most challenging, and fun!

Any short trade here, of course, would be trend following, with oil now off what 25%? --Unless it's the trend from $10--so many trends, so many labels.

In this case I now have the stop margin paid for so I can take an outright position without too much risk. The risk would be that a market pukes (as is want to happen on the short side) and you're left there with little call money and pain of being soooo right!

Right now I'll stay with OPEC and look for the glut in 2ndQ'07. Interestingly, this is probably the trend behind your dollar "buy.'

ps Saw the 'coal gas' cars the Nazi's put out at the new "double-helix" Mercedes Mus. in Stuttgart. It was a small modiification and "only" drawback was that you'd have to get out every 20miles to empty the woodchip ashes. Check out corn: 3600000 barrels of ethanol on the way.

nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 2408

I don't believe you have to be early to make money. Surfing established trends works pretty well ...

Lots of different ways to skin cats, let's not get too wrapped up in how we do it as being the only way ...

I'm neutral on this stock and this sector and looking at other stuff. That doesn't mean I'm right to be neutral on it ...
_________________
I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

rffrydr · Posted: Sat Oct 07, 2006 9:05 pm Post subject:

Y'got be premature or you'll never make any money:

"Doubled up on oct 60 naked XLE calls in face of this hurricane. Lightning can't stike twice--can it?!" Aug 25

Maybe this is a logical place for a bounce (or even a new leg, which I don't believe) but then you can toss the Dow rally rationalization.

You need an OPEC opinion: many are looking to 04 when they cut a million and got a 20% rally. They lost it on the upside and, barring a very cold winter, I think their credibilty is going to suffer for awhile.

Prospero · Senior Poster Joined: 01 Mar 2006 Posts: 82

Isn't it a bit premature to call this a bear market? Even a cyclical one...

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?$XOI

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 10:21 pm Post subject:

I try to avoid a sector if I have decided that it is in a bear market (even a cyclical and short one). In a bear market, the surprises are usually to the downside.

nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 2408

My favorite major integrated is CVX, but I would check the div yield and growth in reserves before deciding. I am out of the sector right now and don't feel it's compelling either way.
_________________
I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.