Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE)

[HenryTo]

Both stocks bounced substantially since Friday afternoon and will most probably lead the next housing bull cycle, however muted it is (actually, the more muted the better, as long as the pipeline is growing). Now that the jumbo loan market is starting to freeze up as well, senators and regulators alike are entertaining the though of easing the caps of both quasi-government companies.

Following is courtesy of the WSJ:
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Big Fans for Fannie, Freddie Some Lawmakers See
One-Time Pariah Firms As Subprime Salvation
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
August 8, 2007; Page C1

The mortgage-market meltdown isn't over, but it already has produced two clear winners: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the nation's biggest investors in home loans.

Until recently, politicians in Washington were arguing about how best to rein in the two giant government-sponsored companies, both recovering from accounting scandals and lapses in financial controls. Now, as worry about the housing market trumps accounting scruples, the political debate has shifted to whether Fannie and Freddie need to grow even bigger to buy more loans and calm mortgage investors.

Sen. Christopher Dodd (D., Conn.), chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, yesterday called on the companies' regulator to consider raising the caps placed last year on the amount of mortgages and related securities Fannie and Freddie can hold, as a way of ensuring that plenty of money is available to fund mortgage loans.

Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.) also called for higher caps. Both Fannie and Freddie are pushing for the same move. A spokeswoman for their regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, or Ofheo, said the agency will respond to the senators shortly.

Fannie's shares gained 3.1% to close at $64.43 on the New York Stock Exchange yesterday, while Freddie was up 2.7% to $61.64.

The two stocks have held steady over the past month amid anxiety over mortgage defaults, while shares of Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation's largest home-mortgage lender, have fallen 27%.

Fannie and Freddie are benefiting because investors are still happy to buy the mortgage securities they create, backed by loans purchased from lenders scattered across the country. The two companies collect fees for guaranteeing the interest and principal payments on the loans backing those securities. Although Fannie and Freddie are private-sector companies, they were created by Congress to funnel money into housing, and investors assume that Congress would bail them out in a crisis.

Sticking With Uncle Sam

With loan defaults rising and house prices falling, investors now are shunning, at least temporarily, mortgage securities packaged by Wall Street firms and others that don't have any implied backing from Uncle Sam. That makes it hard for lenders to find buyers for loans that can't be sold to Fannie and Freddie. Regulations prevent them from buying loans of more than $417,000 on single-family homes, and they have stricter standards on down payments and verification of income than were imposed by Wall Street during the housing boom.


The result is a spike in rates on some types of loans that can't be sold to Fannie or Freddie, such as prime, 30-year, fixed-rate jumbo loans, those above $417,000. Yesterday, the average rate on such loans was 7.44%, according to a survey by financial publishers HSH Associates. That's 0.84 percentage point higher than the average rate on "conforming" loans, those that meet Fannie and Freddie's standards. Typically over the past decade, the premium paid for jumbo loans has been around 0.20 to 0.30 point.

Even middle-class people often pay $500,000 to $700,000 for a humdrum home in high-cost areas. So the higher rates on jumbo loans could be "devastating" for the housing market in some areas, says Michael Menatian, president of Sanborn Mortgage Corp., a mortgage bank in West Hartford, Conn.

As lenders recoil from riskier types of mortgages, "we're turning a lot of people away now," says Jeff Lazerson, chief executive of Mortgage Grader, a mortgage broker in Laguna Niguel, Calif.

Many investors hope that alarm over the housing market will induce Ofheo to ease restraints on Fannie and Freddie.

But Joshua Rosner, an analyst at the New York research boutique Graham Fisher & Co., describes as "mass delusion" the idea that they can save the day for investors exposed to billions of dollars of ill-advised home loans now heading toward foreclosure. For one thing, he says, Ofheo has required Fannie and Freddie to follow stricter standards, recently imposed by banking regulators, in assessing borrowers' ability to repay. So they can't buy up loads of reckless loans to speculators or people failing to pay bills.


Richard Syron, chief executive of Freddie, agrees that there are limits to what his company can do. "Neither we nor anyone else can buy at par loans that probably shouldn't have been made in the first place," he says.

Freddie's Limited Help

Mr. Syron says Freddie can provide funding to refinance many subprime borrowers stuck with loans due to reset to sharply higher monthly payments, but not most of them. In addition, he says, Freddie could help the market by buying and holding more mortgage securities packaged by Wall Street if the cap on its holdings rises.

Fannie and Freddie may be able to buy subprime mortgage securities at discounts that more than make up for the credit risk, Kenneth Posner, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said in a research note. They also may be able to charge more for providing guarantees on securities sold to others, he said: "We can't imagine anyone complaining -- right now there's no other game in town."

The flight of other investors from the mortgage market "does show the role and the need" for Freddie and Fannie to act as steady providers of mortgage funding, Mr. Syron says. Still, he says, Freddie isn't gloating: "You don't want to take a lot of joy in other people's suffering."

Write to James R. Hagerty at bob.hagerty@wsj.com

[rffrydr]

[Suomodo]

There were some 130 mil stocks FNM short selled as early as of Monday this week...Thats 15% of all outstanding, i dont how much of the float..

The best strategy in crisis like this is to buy time ... And Paulson, Cox and Bernanke did it in the best way possible I suppose

Economy recovers sooner or later... there is no major war, BRIC is just at the start of a huge development, and US population is growing thus proping up the housing market some day ..

Crash in US markets would bring this country to a deflationary Depression and that would be a disaster for the whole world .... who cares if some speculators get burned..

BTW how can you sell something what you dont have at disposal at all ... or borrowing the same thing to several people at the same time?

[lewie2004]

I tried to sell short 30 share of fnm with etrade just to see if they would let me. they said they were unable to borrow the shares and short selling in this security was not allowed.

[Odysseus]

There is a truely wierd situation going on with F&F. It looks like a classic manipulative twist to get the stock prices up.

As I understand it, no naked shorts will be allowed come monday morning. When I have shorted stocks in the past, I assumed that FIDO would lend them to me or arrange to borrow the stock on my behalf.

Just for kicks, I called them and awh gee, there is no stock to borrow. I'm assuming that come monday morning, a lot of shorts are going to be bought in without permission.

Interesting that Treasury didn't have to buy an equity stake to support the stocks. All they had to do was arm twist others not to lend them.

Bill Siedman, an old hero of mine said it best. Paraphrased "Paulson is running Treasury like he used to run Goldman. He's trying to make his numbers for next year." He also offered the observation that the bailout of F&F may work in the short term but it will be a disaster down the road. This is the guy that did the work outs and ran the RTC.
_________________
Psychic with Alzheimers. I can predict what I will forget.

[HenryTo]

Freddie Mac rumored to be planning a $10 billion share sale in order to prop up its balance sheet. Not sure if they have the demand but I know for a fact that many money managers still like the stock very much:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avj3nYhGP7io&refer=home

[HenryTo]

Yes, it is never that easy:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&refer=home&sid=a8uY7EEq3cT4

We can probably wait another week but if Congress doesn't act soon, then Paulson has $41 billion in the Exchange Stabilization Fund immediately at his disposal.

[rffrydr]

That's exactly the tact the Russians have been taking (sold 22billion treas bought 34 billion agencies)...do they deserve to be so lucky?
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

BCA on the GSEs. Says to overweight agency debt vs. Treasuries:

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20080715.GIF

[Suomodo]

Rogers is short FNM, FRE, would you expect any other statements ...

[diesel]

Barton Biggs disagrees with Rogers.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5GYUti82O0s&refer=home

[rffrydr]

[rffrydr]

Jimmy Rogers on bloomberg talking up the seven-headed monster.

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T
=Rogers%20Calls%20Fannie%2C%20Freddie%20Rescue%20Plan%20a%20%60Disaster'&clipSRC
=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vIQvD7yNni2I.asf

Mortgage Industry views:

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/post.asp?id=669
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

Bloomberg reporting on the Feds' backstopping of the GSEs. S&P futures up 12 points as I am typing this:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGFaSjTJmUZ0&refer=home

[HenryTo]

Full text of Paulson's speech today on the GSEs:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNHPA3k7pAAQ&refer=home

[HenryTo]

GSEs discussing funding options with the Treasury, the Fed, and the White House should the auction of $3 billion in short-term notes fail tomorrow. At this point, a direct equity injection looks out of the question unless the auction fails:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atSS5TVc0JMc&refer=home