Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE)

[HenryTo]

Both stocks bounced substantially since Friday afternoon and will most probably lead the next housing bull cycle, however muted it is (actually, the more muted the better, as long as the pipeline is growing). Now that the jumbo loan market is starting to freeze up as well, senators and regulators alike are entertaining the though of easing the caps of both quasi-government companies.

Following is courtesy of the WSJ:
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Big Fans for Fannie, Freddie Some Lawmakers See
One-Time Pariah Firms As Subprime Salvation
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
August 8, 2007; Page C1

The mortgage-market meltdown isn't over, but it already has produced two clear winners: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the nation's biggest investors in home loans.

Until recently, politicians in Washington were arguing about how best to rein in the two giant government-sponsored companies, both recovering from accounting scandals and lapses in financial controls. Now, as worry about the housing market trumps accounting scruples, the political debate has shifted to whether Fannie and Freddie need to grow even bigger to buy more loans and calm mortgage investors.

Sen. Christopher Dodd (D., Conn.), chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, yesterday called on the companies' regulator to consider raising the caps placed last year on the amount of mortgages and related securities Fannie and Freddie can hold, as a way of ensuring that plenty of money is available to fund mortgage loans.

Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.) also called for higher caps. Both Fannie and Freddie are pushing for the same move. A spokeswoman for their regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, or Ofheo, said the agency will respond to the senators shortly.

Fannie's shares gained 3.1% to close at $64.43 on the New York Stock Exchange yesterday, while Freddie was up 2.7% to $61.64.

The two stocks have held steady over the past month amid anxiety over mortgage defaults, while shares of Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation's largest home-mortgage lender, have fallen 27%.

Fannie and Freddie are benefiting because investors are still happy to buy the mortgage securities they create, backed by loans purchased from lenders scattered across the country. The two companies collect fees for guaranteeing the interest and principal payments on the loans backing those securities. Although Fannie and Freddie are private-sector companies, they were created by Congress to funnel money into housing, and investors assume that Congress would bail them out in a crisis.

Sticking With Uncle Sam

With loan defaults rising and house prices falling, investors now are shunning, at least temporarily, mortgage securities packaged by Wall Street firms and others that don't have any implied backing from Uncle Sam. That makes it hard for lenders to find buyers for loans that can't be sold to Fannie and Freddie. Regulations prevent them from buying loans of more than $417,000 on single-family homes, and they have stricter standards on down payments and verification of income than were imposed by Wall Street during the housing boom.


The result is a spike in rates on some types of loans that can't be sold to Fannie or Freddie, such as prime, 30-year, fixed-rate jumbo loans, those above $417,000. Yesterday, the average rate on such loans was 7.44%, according to a survey by financial publishers HSH Associates. That's 0.84 percentage point higher than the average rate on "conforming" loans, those that meet Fannie and Freddie's standards. Typically over the past decade, the premium paid for jumbo loans has been around 0.20 to 0.30 point.

Even middle-class people often pay $500,000 to $700,000 for a humdrum home in high-cost areas. So the higher rates on jumbo loans could be "devastating" for the housing market in some areas, says Michael Menatian, president of Sanborn Mortgage Corp., a mortgage bank in West Hartford, Conn.

As lenders recoil from riskier types of mortgages, "we're turning a lot of people away now," says Jeff Lazerson, chief executive of Mortgage Grader, a mortgage broker in Laguna Niguel, Calif.

Many investors hope that alarm over the housing market will induce Ofheo to ease restraints on Fannie and Freddie.

But Joshua Rosner, an analyst at the New York research boutique Graham Fisher & Co., describes as "mass delusion" the idea that they can save the day for investors exposed to billions of dollars of ill-advised home loans now heading toward foreclosure. For one thing, he says, Ofheo has required Fannie and Freddie to follow stricter standards, recently imposed by banking regulators, in assessing borrowers' ability to repay. So they can't buy up loads of reckless loans to speculators or people failing to pay bills.


Richard Syron, chief executive of Freddie, agrees that there are limits to what his company can do. "Neither we nor anyone else can buy at par loans that probably shouldn't have been made in the first place," he says.

Freddie's Limited Help

Mr. Syron says Freddie can provide funding to refinance many subprime borrowers stuck with loans due to reset to sharply higher monthly payments, but not most of them. In addition, he says, Freddie could help the market by buying and holding more mortgage securities packaged by Wall Street if the cap on its holdings rises.

Fannie and Freddie may be able to buy subprime mortgage securities at discounts that more than make up for the credit risk, Kenneth Posner, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said in a research note. They also may be able to charge more for providing guarantees on securities sold to others, he said: "We can't imagine anyone complaining -- right now there's no other game in town."

The flight of other investors from the mortgage market "does show the role and the need" for Freddie and Fannie to act as steady providers of mortgage funding, Mr. Syron says. Still, he says, Freddie isn't gloating: "You don't want to take a lot of joy in other people's suffering."

Write to James R. Hagerty at bob.hagerty@wsj.com

[HenryTo]

Asking Freddie and Fannie for help - is still off the table, for now:

Marketwatch story

[HenryTo]

Don't forget that Freddie will be reporting earnings tomorrow morning at 10am EST.

[HenryTo]

Not a pretty sight, as Freddie reports its biggest loss ever and is now starving for more capital:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asA4J74Q.qik&refer=home

[HenryTo]

Freddie due to report this Thursday. Following is a recap of the action in Freddie over the last six months courtesy of the Associated Press:
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Earnings Preview: Freddie Mac
Tuesday February 26, 3:30 pm ET
Weakening Mortgage and Housing Markets to Negatively Affect Freddie Mac's 4th-Quarter Earnings


NEW YORK (AP) -- Freddie Mac reports earnings for the fourth quarter on Thursday. The following is a summary of key developments and analyst opinion related to the period.

OVERVIEW: Mortgage financier and government sponsored enterprise Freddie Mac is facing major difficulties as the housing and mortgage markets continue to deteriorate. Freddie Mac is one of the largest purchasers of mortgages, along with fellow GSE Fannie Mae. The pair typically purchase only safe, traditional prime mortgages, but have some programs that allow for loans made to some riskier borrowers.

As defaults and delinquencies have risen across all loan types, not even Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have been immune from having to take write-downs on the value of loans or to increase reserves to cover defaults.

Continued declines in home sales and house prices also limit Freddie Mac's growth potential as fewer mortgages are originated.

"The median U.S. house price has fallen 10 percent since its peak in the first quarter of 2007; we forecast a further 10 percent to 12 percent decline from current levels," Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst James Fotheringham, wrote in a recent note to clients. "House price depreciation is the key factor driving down growth in mortgage debt outstanding."

BY THE NUMBERS: Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, forecast a loss of $2.34 per share for the quarter.

ANALYST TAKE: Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. analyst Paul Miller expects Freddie Mac's fourth-quarter earnings to be affected by higher credit losses, wider credit spreads and possible write-downs.

Miller is anticipating the mortgage financier will lose $3 per share during the quarter. Miller said those losses will likely pressure Freddie Mac's capital requirements.

Fotheringham said he expects Freddie Mac's credit and derivative-related write-downs and credit costs to increase.

On Monday, Fotheringham cut his rating on Freddie Mac, to "Sell" from "Neutral" saying the nation is "only half way through this severe housing cycle." Fotheringham lowered his price target by 19 percent to $22.

WHAT'S AHEAD: Federal regulators have temporarily lifted the cap on the size of loans Freddie Mac can purchase in certain locations designated as high cost. Previously, Freddie Mac could only buy loans worth up to $417,000. Now the limit has been raised in some locations to as high as $729,750.

Miller said in the near-future, Freddie Mac will see little benefit from the increased loan limit, but if the higher limits are instituted permanently, it could increase market share and profitability. Though he cautioned that the increased profitability would also come with added risk on losses, because of the larger size of the loans.

STOCK PERFORMANCE: Shares of Freddie Mac fell 42 percent during the fourth quarter and 50 percent in 2007 to end the year at $34.07. Shares have since fallen an additional 23 percent, closing Monday at $26.18.

[rffrydr]

I'd say the risk in this report is to the upside. The Agencies have already taken the hit from weak hands. No doubt there will be more. But these are Agencies, broad and deep. It may surprise many that the nation, as a whole, is still making payments on its homes.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

10-K Sampler from Fannie.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/02/27/11221/the-sour-facts-of-life-at-sweet-fannie-mae/
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

OFHEO to lift caps on Fannie's and Freddie's investment portfolios on March 1st:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120411930796696727.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo

[rffrydr]

Freddie 25% under and there's the long nose of born-again Moody's once more:


http://www.cnbc.com/id/23385758
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

Fannie continues its slide this morning despite an upgrade from JPM:

http://dailybriefing.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/03/05/fannie-falls-despite-upgrade/?source=yahoo_quote

[dknoester]

http://www.smdailyjournal.com/article_preview.php?id=88324

Fannie and Freddie hemorrhaging to new lows.

DK
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Be careful while stuffing your pockets not to lose your pants!!

[rffrydr]

That's in Bill's Top-Ten, as are another 4-5 bubbles in his top 12. He refined the search and found Texas--which you already knew, right ,Bill? I'm looking into his rec on Plano. But munis are clearly not the absolute they've always been taken to be. Becareful what you screen for is what you screen for.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

Cramer now immensely bearish on the GSEs:

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/funds/stoptrading/10406565.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

[rffrydr]

That's why he's a madman.

I like his Thornberg preferreds and even the charitible trust feature Annaly.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[nodoodahs]