Fed Officials Diverge on Economic Risks

probtrader · Senior Poster Joined: 22 Oct 2005 Posts: 130

Traders now judge that a cut of 0.75 percentage point in the Fed's main interest rate at or before the March 18 meeting is more likely than a half-point move, by a 70 percent to 30 percent margin, based on futures prices. The chance of such a large reduction jumped from 2 percent a week ago.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=anekrfwIJxeY

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2011 4:33 pm Post subject:

Hays interview with Hoenig:

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/Economics/On_Economy/v3X6QbSu1FF0.mp3

Closet Bundesbank here. Turns out as a young man he was given a 500000 Mark note from his german neighbor to show him how things were done way back. And in this interview while accounting for the manufacturing devastation in his home state can't help slipping in the "runaway" ag land prices.

Isn't it the easiest thing of all being a "hawk"? Bold, strong, aloof--self-denying and, more to the point, denying others? In the end, when it all goes kaput, like Melon, you just "liquidate." Of course the Hawks are always of rich blood so they'll be doing the buying.

In truth, the ultimate Hawk move here would be to throw every last cent you can print into the black hole of the banks. That way nothing might be "misappropriated" now, or down the line--post you. God help you should fed money do something, anything PRODUCTIVE. Hawks make no decisions, weigh nothing. No means yes in the long run...and in the long run...

Hawks deny themselves nothing while denying anything from everybody. They need to exist to the extent that doves need to be married.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Aug 19, 2011 6:44 pm Post subject:

FT summarizes what we could expect from Bernanke in next week's Jackson Hole meeting:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d506a918-c9ed-11e0-94b1-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1VWbGWX6O

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 9:29 pm Post subject:

H. Simons on the FED today, look to Big OIL for model of future financials:

HenryTo · Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 7:29 am Post subject:

Not only that, but we need a steeper global yield curve, beginning with the Bank of England and the ECB. The People's Bank of China has already shifted to an easing bias for the first time in six years. This preemptive stance is decidedly pro-growth. Combined with an increasingly "dovish" fiscal policy, China has shown it is serious about promoting growth and domestic spending to offset the weakness in global consumer spending in general. Look for more easing from China over the next several months.

Wage growth in Western Europe is also dramatically slowing down. My sense is that the September inflation numbers will plunge across the board - allowing both the Bank of England the European Central Bank to start cutting rates before the end fo this year. We will see.

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 7:15 am Post subject:

We need a steeper curve....
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 2408

http://marketthoughts.com/z20080724.html

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:07 am Post subject:

Fed Funds futures now pricing in a 1/3 chance of a cut by the end of this year:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aycV_ACyiEtw&refer=home

Suomodo · Posted: Wed Jun 04, 2008 12:51 am Post subject:

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 2:54 pm Post subject:

Me too, as I said, as it turned out Confused

on the unemployment friday before. Master H. taught me not to reverse positions on the same trade, not much chance to get short. Still, recessions are for buying. Don't have a good idea but can't say I'm willing to make a commitment 'til unemployment is marked at 6% or 30yr fixed hits 5.25...wherein I'll be picking stocks. Other than autos not big on int. earnings. July window-dressing may be it for momentum materials. Like some REITS, distressed yield, dollar, one airline; don't like some materials. Don't want to sell or buy volitility. Not excited to be long post Olympics. Don't trust the P/C; Barron's sentiment indicator was strangely off the charts end-of-April.

Let us know when you see a move --pull us out of this funk.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

Suomodo · Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 1:37 pm Post subject:

keppierce · Junior Poster Joined: 04 Aug 2007 Posts: 42

If you look at December 2, 2002 after an apparent double bottom similar to the current situation, the DJIA and SPX hit 9000 and 950 respectively on a negative reversal day similar to today. They both nearly retested the lows shortly after. Curious.

probtrader · Senior Poster Joined: 22 Oct 2005 Posts: 130

Interesting to note that inflation refuge products (GSG, USO, GLD) were all down today after the Fed "pause" approach.
Curious how the DOW hit 13000 and SPX 14000 almost at the same time after the announcement.

http://finance.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chdet=1209594842754&chddm=391&q=INDEXSP:.INX&
http://finance.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chdet=1209594992641&chddm=391&q=INDEXDJX:.DJI&

Suomodo · Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 1:42 pm Post subject:

Strong rebouncing off the resistance...

When most are short term long, only bad news count... 1405 is a strenghold that can be either broken on some exstasy in a few days or needs time to be besieged like 1381... and in that case there is no need to sell afterwards...

FOMC did what everyone expected and the tone is neutral now... they still have space to fight if there is panic (July reports??, some black swan).. down to 1-1.25% or stay and watch if the markets flow smoothly slightly up...

If the US consumer can stand this summer there will be effects of the rate cuts visible and the recession is over, happy Xmas etc....

maybe its the right time to buy my admired car Chrysler Grand Voyager now... its 30% cheaper now than year ago and better than Volkswagen Sharan. NOw at the same price... Thanks FED for the present..

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 6:12 am Post subject:

It's friday's jobs number.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 12:56 am Post subject:

Suomodo,

That sounds like a good short-term strategy. We're seeing short-term divergences with the percentage of stocks above their 10-day MAs while the major indices ticked slightly higher.

Fed Funds futures are now discounting an 80% chance of a 25 bps cut. This is what I am betting as I think a 2.25% FFR is still too restrictive based on the Taylor Rule and given that housing prices show no signs of stabilizing just yet. The elevated LIBOR is also a concern. While a 25 bps cut won't directly bring down the LIBOR spread, it will definitely help bring LIBOR down on an absolute basis.

If we see a major rally later today - combined with strong volume and breadth - then we may have something that is more sustainable in the short-run.

Best regards,

Henry