Finally time to short homebuilders?

[nodoodahs]

http://www.lewrockwell.com/thornton/thornton27.html

Another take on the housing bubble.

http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=792

My model predicts still higher 10 year treasury yields.

If the trend over the next quarter is higher 10 year treasury yields, then naturally homebuilder and mortgage stocks may fall. This may be a good time to consider shorts on the builders ...
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I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

[nodoodahs]

Here's a 5-day chart of the Philly Housing Idx vs the Ten Year Yield. Note the gap up for yield on Thursday vs the drop in HGX on Friday.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EHGX&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=%5Etnx

Here's the 2-year chart.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EHGX&t=2y&l=off&z=m&q=l&c=%5Etnx

See April and May of 2004, March of 2005. Increasing yield precedes dip in homebuilding stocks.

If you think the yield on the 10 year is gonna go up for a while, it could be a good ride down on the HGX.
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I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.