Finally time to short homebuilders?

nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 2408

http://www.lewrockwell.com/thornton/thornton27.html

Another take on the housing bubble.

http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=792

My model predicts still higher 10 year treasury yields.

If the trend over the next quarter is higher 10 year treasury yields, then naturally homebuilder and mortgage stocks may fall. This may be a good time to consider shorts on the builders ...
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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2011 10:08 am Post subject:

This one hanging around august levels Exclamation

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TOL&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p16161171710

Buy american!
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rffrydr · Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2009 2:13 pm Post subject:

Brother Frank productions
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2009 10:02 am Post subject:

They think that you can "price in this" --only short term:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1235336664&play=1
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Sun May 17, 2009 7:16 am Post subject:

Pulte CEO likes the way he looks:

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/News/Surveillance/v_U4Xrueba18.mp3
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Bullitt · Newbie Joined: 23 Feb 2008 Posts: 1 Location: USA

XHB broke above it's 50 DMA on 1/22/08 and closed Friday just above the 50 DMA. I remember when homebuilders in general began moving to the downside around 7/2005, well before the doom and gloom became popular media. This recent move may be a technical sign of a bottom forming in housing.

Something to keep an eye on.

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2008 11:17 am Post subject:

Standard Pacific now rumored to be filing for bankruptcy. Stock was down over 17% on Friday - this could be our contrarian buying indicator for XHB.

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/realestate/10398315.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

http://www.forbes.com/2008/01/11/stanardpacific-homebuilders-mortgage-markets-equity-cx_ra_0111markets31.html?partner=yahootix

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 4:26 pm Post subject:

...and we HAD a bankrupcy. Not a big one but an august one:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22590773
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HenryTo · Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 12:59 pm Post subject:

Lennar's distressed sales: 40 cents on the dollar. It looks like that this housing price adjustment may happen quicker than most of us think - especially given the number of vulture funds out there (we have looked at a couple here) and the amount of assets they have under management:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aKTFOoHM.Jww&refer=home

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 6:08 pm Post subject:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XHB:$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p00963222035

Left a pretty long tail hanging out there on a good, broad rally in the SP (outperformed Russell). The MACD has shown good improvement since OCT even on a (good) marginal new low.

WCI Communities will face BK if funding doesn't achieve a waiver on Janurary 16.
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HenryTo · Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2007 10:18 am Post subject:

Given the lashing that the subprime lenders has been taking over the last few weeks, I am surprised that the homebuilders haven't experienced more of a downdraft.

Maybe this will come - GM as well.

Henry

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2007 10:24 am Post subject:

Well I done gone and did it: Bought 400 at 9.67; sold 4 June 10 strikes financing 3 10-7.50 put spreads. If it drops to 7 I'll double up (at lower strikes) If we get a dead cat bounce to 13-14 I'll sell 2 17.50s.

$4 is going to be paid on this peice of yesterday's news; first in May--this the LAW says. Now we'll get to see what the world says. Shocked

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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2007 8:15 am Post subject:

TOL reports: cancellations "good" news.

And down at the bottom:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/toll-brothers-quarterly-net-drops/story.aspx?guid=%7B0A4C0D80%2D4171%2D42BA%2D9C4C%2DE1D6126B6B18%7D

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Feb 14, 2007 8:02 pm Post subject:

Masco, showing the effect of housing market. lays off 8000:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/masco-plans-cut-8000-workers/story.aspx?guid=%7BF4396CF8%2DD78C%2D47F0%2D85E6%2D1316C443F8AB%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN
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rffrydr · Posted: Thu Feb 08, 2007 5:00 pm Post subject:

Hard to say. These things are living, breathing monsters of financial engineering. Not sure they can be rated. Novastar has done a decent job of plotting scheming its way to this point--a time they well knew would come. And sidestepping the "added bonus" in this stock, second cross-bearer to OVSTK in the Naked Short issue. Worked, at long last, for them recently, getting coverage on CNBC, Utah hearings.... It's what y'might call an "embedded option." Their average loan is $200,000 and there is alot of PMI behind that. And none of that is mobile homes! A $5 dividend is in the bank and the sector is not going away.

That said, would not surprise me to see NFI.bk. A few sold puts financing even fewer OFTM Calls. Maybe a little more with a short on DR Horton. Hard to bet against oneself--there oughtta be a law against it!
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Feb 08, 2007 3:23 pm Post subject:

rffrydr,

Ever thought about buying LEND instead?

Not sure if it is at book value - Yahoo finance says it is. Also, according to Value Investors Insight, LEND is the "least risky" out of all the subprime lends, including NFI.

Best of luck,

Henry