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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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 Posted: Mon May 14, 2012 1:51 pm Post subject: |
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One of these days, soon, they're gonna realize these guys sell trucks right here in the good ol' USA.
Buying the warrants as the stock making a lower low inside BB. These adjust nicely down for the implicit dividend--which amounts to a leveraged 2%. --Let's call it a bank account play 
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47375478
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue May 01, 2012 10:17 am Post subject: |
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Had they the europe/SA results of just two quarters ago this would've been a blowout quarter the company has hardly seen in 50yrs. But europe continues to rain on everyone's parade.
Shocker is Brazil. Zero was never part of the EEM equation. This big fat open market has found some competition. Ford's reliance on the Mexican conduit could really hurt down the road.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sun Apr 29, 2012 6:05 pm Post subject: |
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Morningstar on Ford's 1Q earnings.
| Quote: | | Ford F reported first-quarter pretax results Friday of a $2.3 billion profit, or $0.39 per diluted share, which beat consensus estimates of $0.35. Revenue decreased 2.1% year over year to $32.4 billion, which still beat consensus of about $31.3 billion. We will probably leave our fair value estimate in place as the recovery we expect to happen in the U.S. market appears to be taking hold. Automotive operating margin did decline year over year to 6.4% from 7.7%, as there was a flat contribution from volume and mix while net pricing only increased automotive pretax income by $200 million from the first quarter of 2011. Materials and overhead costs more than offset the small improvement from pricing, which resulted in automotive pretax operating profit of $1.8 billion compared with $2.1 billion in the prior year's quarter. Also noteworthy is that the company announced a voluntary pension buyout offer for all approximately 90,000 U.S. salaried retirees and former U.S. salaried employees. The funds for the buyout will come from pension plan assets rather than from Ford's $23.1 billion automotive cash and marketable securities balance. This quarter showed a trend that we expect to continue for the rest of the year, in that North American results were quite strong but other markets declined from the prior year. In the first quarter, all geographic markets outside North America had lower results than a year ago, with only South America profitable. These results are not ideal, but we think it is important to focus on the improvements shown by Ford North America. The segment had its highest quarterly profit since at least 2000, when it was first reported separately, and its operating margin increased 120 basis points year over year to 11.5% despite market share declining 80 basis points to 15.2%. The reason for the $300 million increase in North American auto operating profit to $2.1 billion is that modest gains in volume, mix, pricing, and lower freight costs more than offset higher engineering and other overhead costs. We will publish a more detailed note after the earnings call. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat Apr 28, 2012 8:23 am Post subject: |
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Ford achieved (its own) holy grail this quarter in producing 10%+ margins in NA. The europe hit wasn't as bad as guided. But still, those margins will fall as most capex, launch and, yes, capacity expansion costs integrate in throughout the year. The tax kill on earnings gets taken out through a backdoor credit--but who has time to care? That will produce some serious "magic cash"...which will go to pension paydown.
With europe clouds SP won't upgrade this year and thus no chance of a serious dividend so best automotive quarter perhpas ever will be met with a yawn in months to come. 
Again Ford pioneers in credit: big success with its HK "dim-sum" bonds. This will go a long way towards their (under the wire) grand multi-billion ChongQing expansion.
Stock went down; bonds up. Par for this "investor friendly" course.
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat Jan 28, 2012 8:51 am Post subject: |
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About 27c actually. Not a miss. Analyst models didn't take the tax effect on QR as reported because Ford didn't actually pay those taxes. They get the free draw on this until the $13b runs out...which of course will not be credited by Wall St. But it will allow debt /and pension contributions to "magically" fade.
They got whipsawed in the hardstuff hedges: whipped in Sept and Dec rebound. Terrible hedge management. (GM doesn't do that) And Thai floods turned out worse than Fukushima for most autos. Last two months in Europe was cliff-drop...just like market said it would be. Stabilization on those three fronts means 1-2 billion next year. !4.5 SAAR another 2-3. Market is looking for flat. (Good job debtholders)
Then there's the leprechaun promise of 10% NA margins by 2015--which would be a killer app. And speaking of which, this was supposed to be the quarter that killed. Looks like the bearishness was built in....if we stabilize here. Tailwind under cyclicals after six months and there's just too much revenues here not to be picked up by the indexers. I'm looking for $16 with a free option to $20. $14.5 if europe flatlines basis Xmas, over the year.
Lotta people playing through the Suppliers--skipping (theoretically) labor and liability. But watch out for the capex builds....they're huge! And finance is the ticket. So much easier at FoxConn-- just like ol' times.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sat Jan 28, 2012 1:20 am Post subject: |
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Morningstar on Ford's 4Q earnings.
| Quote: | | Ford Motor Company F reported pro-forma fourth quarter results Friday of $0.20 per diluted share, which missed consensus expectations of $0.25. GAAP earnings per share came in at $3.40 because of a nearly $12.5 billion noncash gain from the reversal of the deferred tax asset valuation allowance. This reversal is not a surprise, as management has been guiding for it to happen in 2012 for nearly a year. It is a good sign for Ford, because it means the company expects to be profitable enough to use its deferred tax assets. The effective tax rate going forward will probably be about 30%, but the important point is that cash taxes will remain low for many years. Excluding special items, consolidated fourth-quarter pretax income was $1.1 billion, down 14.6% from the prior year's fourth quarter. Automotive pretax income declined 20.9% to $586 million, primarily because of higher c ommodity and freight costs as well as higher North American compensation due to the payment of the United Auto Workers ratification bonus. Geographically, only North America posted an increase in automotive pretax operating profit while Europe and Asia posted losses. Management said at the North American International Auto Show earlier this month that Asia would not be profitable in 2011 because of a higher-than-expected impact from the Thailand flooding in the fourth quarter. The Thai flooding cost Ford 34,000 units of lost production. On the positive side, the global auto business generated a $1.8 billion improvement from the fourth quarter of 2010 thanks to better volume, mix, and pricing. Management expects 2012 commodity costs to increase but not materially, which would be a welcome relief from the pressure Ford experienced in 2011. Revenue comfortably beat consensus by coming in at $34.6 billion (up 6.5%) compared with consensus of $32.1 billion. We will analyze the results further and publish a longer note after the earnings call, but we are unlikely to change our investment thesis because of the weak fourth quarter. We are disappointed by Friday's news, but we remain very optimistic about Ford's future; the company has terrific products and much-improved pricing power from a few years ago, and we expect significant improvement in U.S. light-vehicle sales over the coming years. The competition is certainly fierce, but we think Ford will remain a global auto manufacturing leader. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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Location: Sunny California
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| Posted: Sun Oct 30, 2011 9:56 am Post subject: |
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Look for more and more of this:
http://detnews.com/article/20111030/AUTO01/110300304/1148/rss25
GM and Ford and "Mopar" already deeply into the "aftermarket"--a "niche" craft zone that should only grown as america turns....inward.
Watch for Oct. Sales to surprise next week.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:40 pm Post subject: |
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Looking to sell strangles here and try to develop a real position. Trade still traumatized from last year--but trama fatigue should be well set. New Year would be good at this point.
From CC:
| Quote: | | Yes, Adam. It's Mike. Our credit losses continue to perform extraordinarily well. We're at historic lows and that's continued quarter-over-quarter, not just in North America but around the world. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:06 am Post subject: |
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Great one to own on 500pts of Dow, down. 
Big expansion plans, asia et. al. are telegraphing a 3% profit margin in seasonally weak Q4. Tax loss will no doubt keep pressure and shorts/short against the bonds just weighs. They really do need the dividend...but, great late buy for the non-recessionistas. Investment will leverage up 2012, like it or not.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2011 7:08 am Post subject: |
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"Dividend disappointment ruled. That'll come in Jan. 8-cents/share materials derivative has already been written back for Q4. Deferred Tax gets no credit on Wall St. but is GRAVY for this company. That'll fund the dividend right there. Minus .3 in Europe. That'll be Ford's low for the cycle. No recession over there will leverage earnings big time. It'll be close no doubt.
This stock traded less than 5X '11 earnings weeks ago.
Most Shorted:
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3062-nyseshort-highlites.html
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Wed Oct 26, 2011 2:14 pm Post subject: |
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Morningstar on Ford's 3Q earnings:
| Quote: | | Ford Motor Company F reported pro-forma third quarter results Wednesday of $0.46 per share ($0.41 GAAP), which beat consensus expectations of $0.44. Aftertax results excluding special items came in at just over $1.8 billion versus about $1.9 billion in the year-ago quarter. Special items this quarter totaled about $98 million ($0.05 per share charge) and were mostly for Mercury termination charges and personnel reductions. After a first read of the press release, we do not see anything material enough to question our investment thesis, and we are likely to leave our fair value estimate in place. Revenue increased 14.1% year over year to $33.1 billion, but only North America, South America, and Ford Motor Credit posted pretax operating profits. As usual, North America reported the vast majority of the profit at $1.6 billion, about flat with a year ago. Total automotive pretax profit was $1.3 billion, up only $45 million from the third quarter last year. All regions showed improvements from pricing, but only North America and South America showed favorable variances from volume, mix, and pricing. Commodity costs noticeably affected automotive results this quarter as the company incurred a $350 million noncash charge for mark-to-market adjustments on commodity hedges, not a surprise as commodity costs declined this quarter. This charge will reverse in future periods if commodity costs rise. The company also plans to reverse the majority of its deferred tax asset valuation allowance in the fourth quarter, which is entirely a noncash event. Ford's cash taxes are expected to remain low for many years. The balance sheet remained strong with automotive net cash of $8.1 billion, up only slightly from $8 billion at June 30. Automotive cash flo w for the quarter was $400 million and automotive debt declined to $12.7 billion from $14 billion at June 30 as the company paid off the remaining $1.8 billion of its term loan in September. Automotive liquidity at Sept. 30 was a healthy $31 billion, with $20.8 billion of that coming from existing cash and marketable securities. No mention of a dividend was made, so we will be looking for an announcement either during the North American International Auto Show in January or a few weeks after that when Ford reports year-end results. |
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