| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Gannett (GCI) |
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11735
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
 Posted: Sat May 13, 2006 12:06 pm Post subject: Gannett (GCI) |
 |
|
For subscribers who haven't read Bill's latest article on GCI, I recommend you do - and at least twice:
http://www.marketthoughts.com/members/zs20060511.html
What I haven't done much research on at this point is this: Where is future growth going to come from? Through acqusitions? Can they continue to achieve organic growth more than GDP + inflation? Is this a potential double merely because of current valuations or can this be a potential triple or quadruple based on higher-than-expected 10% to 12% growth to the bottom line in the next few years?
Bill: Got any answers?  I will also look into this stock more this weekend.
Thanks,
Henry |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
| Author |
Gannett (GCI) Replies |
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16932
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Thu May 17, 2012 2:36 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Go Warren, go!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-17/berkshire-buys-media-general-s-newspapers-for-142-million.html
That he made the effort to eulogize this investment space turned a little light on: turns out what's left of "community" in his eyes, has value. Spoken like the Omaha wizard he wants to us to believe he is.
Strangely enough, that other community oughtta feel the same, Manhattan. That one, Warren can't live far enough from.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16932
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 05, 2012 7:26 am Post subject: |
|
|
Hard to short a newspaper in an election year.
The combo magazine app at last makes its appearance. Now happy readers can reap some of the benefits of direct delivery without feeling "taxed." This accords with a "coffee table" model of the tablet, there for the using by anyone in the family. Since there's little in the way of privacy protection on these devices, that's the way it should be:
http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/news/movies/la-fi-magazine-app-20120405,0,5819014.story
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16932
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Tue Feb 07, 2012 3:46 pm Post subject: |
|
|
McClatchy socked it to the 35% float short today:
http://quotes.wsj.com/MNI
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11735
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2012 11:26 am Post subject: |
|
|
Morningstar on GCI's earnings.
| Quote: | | Consistent with our thesis, Gannett's GCI strong growth in digital still isn't enough to mitigate the continued revenue decline in the publishing segment (nearly one fourth of sales). Similarly, reductions in costs thanks to efficiency initiatives were not enough to prevent softer margins on sales deleveraging. The press release lacked commentary on the 2012 outlook, so we will be listening to the conference call for additional details. The shares are slightly overvalued relative to our $13 fair value estimate, as we're focused on the continued decline of print media. Total revenue was down 3.7% to $5.2 billion, primarily because of a 5.4% decline in the publishing segment. A 7.4% drop in advertising drove the softness in publishing as advertisers continue to shy away from print media in favor of the Internet. Broadcast revenue declined 6.1% on a tough comparison, as 2010 revenue included $107 million in ad spending from the Winter Olympics. Broadcast revenue would have been up 9% excluding this revenue source. The bright spot, as always, was digital revenue, which rose 11.0%. Still, this robust growth is from a segment that contributes less than 15% of total revenue. Accordingly, over the next few years, we forecast low-single-digit declines in total revenue as the secular decline of print media drags on sales. Adjusted operating margins were down 150 basis points to 18.1%, as our concerns that sales deleveraging would hinder margin gains from cost-saving initiatives proved true. Efficiency efforts, facility consolidations, and workforce reductions continue to be a priority, but we believe Gannett needs to show some real top-line improvement in order to boost margins. We expect operating margins to gradually erode over the next few years to 17%. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16932
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2011 7:28 am Post subject: |
|
|
New York Times and WSJ both feature same big photo for Veteran's Day 
The internet is here.
Made money on these in '08-'09, look to do it again....how can you not own a little newspaper in an election year???
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
nodoodahs
Moderator
Joined: 06 May 2005
Posts: 2408
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16932
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2011 11:08 am Post subject: |
|
|
Just throw up your arms:
| Quote: | Not everyone can be Steve Jobs, of course. For one, the mock turtlenecks can be mighty itchy.
But small-town newspaper publisher GateHouse Media believes it can engineer the same kind of turnaround Jobs cooked up at Apple.
GateHouse this month unveiled the ambitiously named Project Apple, reports the Illinois Times. “We are looking to remain the most dominant local media franchise in each of the markets we serve and a turnaround just as impressive as Apple’s is something to which we should all aspire,” GateHouse CEO Michael Reed wrote to his troops.... |
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11735
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Mon Oct 17, 2011 11:59 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Bill, I need a "like" button for your post! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16932
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:02 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Thanks for the reminder. I bought McClatchy '08...just might buy it again. Elections work wonders for newspaper's bottom line.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
nodoodahs
Moderator
Joined: 06 May 2005
Posts: 2408
|
| Posted: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:24 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| nodoodahs wrote: | No longer an option on the survival of the business, but these stocks are still options on the future of the industry.
GCI had such potential as the largest holder of small-town papers, holder of one of the largest distributors, and holder of other media options. Such a waste. Failure to change with the times has meant a failure for shareholders.
| Quote: | | Grandad, what's a "newspaper"? |
|
^^ still stands.
GCI had once shown the ability to grow inside a dying industry, but they can't manage that anymore.
GCI had once had the potential to transcend that industry, but they squandered that.
Aside from some weirdness during the crash, a 10-year log chart of GCI:SPY shows a nice, clean downtrend from 2005 to 2011.
What irks me most about this stock is not that it was a miss - I've had plenty of those - but that the solution to their problem was and is obvious, and was even hinted at in their Ks and Qs years ago, but they've consistently managed to ignore that solution ...
_________________
I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11735
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Mon Oct 17, 2011 11:46 am Post subject: |
|
|
Morningstar on GCI's 3Q earnings:
| Quote: | | The decline in publishing advertising accelerated in Gannett's GCI third quarter, with revenue down 8.5% compared with 6.5% in the second quarter. While this was to be expected given the dislocation in the global markets over the past few months, causing businesses and consumers alike to rein in spending, we assert that this affirms our thesis that the decline in print advertising will weigh on Gannett's performance. Total revenue was $1.3 billion, down 3.5% from the prior-year period, primarily attributable to the aforementioned decline in publishing advertising (which still accounts for nearly half of sales). We expect 2011 sales to continue to slide in the low-single-digit range as weakness in the publishing segment negates revenue gains in the digital and broadcasting segments. Shares look currently modestly undervalued relative to our fair value estimate of $13 per share, but we would require a higher margin of safety before investing in Gannett, given our thesis that the decline in print media revenue will prevent the firm's top line from returning to growth. As usual, the bright spot was Gannett's digital segment revenue, up 10.3% from the prior-year period thanks to higher employment advertising demand at CareerBuilder. But this segment represents only 14% of total revenue and has a long way to go before it drives overall sales. Because of the impact political spending had on revenue gains in the third quarter of 2010, broadcasting revenue declined 5.9% on weaker political spending relative to the prior-year period. Excluding the effect of $21.3 million in political spending last year, broadcasting revenue would have been up 6.3%. Operating margins (excluding charges) declined 130 basis points to 16.3% as cost containment fai led to keep up with the pace of revenue in the quarter. We're pleased that the firm continues to cut its workforce and consolidate facilities to cut costs--something we view as necessary to preserve profitability, given the declining top line. After a dramatic improvement in margins in 2010 because of aggressive cost-cutting, we are skeptical that Gannett will be able to keep costs in check over the long run. We believe the firm will run out of fat to trim amid declining revenue and be faced with the decision to cut into muscle, harming the quality of its product. As such, we expect the company will give back some of the recent margin gains over time as the growth in costs outpaces revenue growth. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16932
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:55 am Post subject: |
|
|
Adrift in a sea of "facts." 
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11735
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11735
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Mon Jul 18, 2011 3:09 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Morningstar on GCI's 2Q earnings:
| Quote: | | At the risk of sounding like a broken record, our thesis that the decline in print advertising will weigh on Gannett's GCI performance was validated yet again by the firm's second-quarter financials. Total revenue came in at $1.3 billion, down 2.2% from the prior-year period, primarily attributable to a 6.5% decline in publishing advertising (which still accounts for nearly half of sales), though partially offset by a 12.6% rise in digital revenue (13% of sales). Gannett's numbers did look sequentially better, but we still do not expect the firm to return to positive growth in our 10-year forecast horizon. While growth across the firm's digital and broadcasting segments (coupled with the digital portion of the publishing segment) remains strong, we believe Gannett has a long way to go before these segments become the majority of revenue and operating income. We expect 2011 sales to continue to slide in the low-single-digit range as weakness in the publishing segment negates revenue gains in the digital and broadcasting segments. While the market appears pleased with the results and the increased dividend, we assert that at Friday's close, the shares were fairly valued at around $13 per share, or around 6 times forward fiscal earnings. As usual, the bright spot was Gannett's digital segment, up 12.6% from the prior-year period thanks to higher employment advertising demand at CareerBuilder. Broadcasting revenue was soft again (up 0.2%) on a difficult year-over-year comparison, which included nearly $12 million in political advertising spending. Excluding this effect, broadcasting revenue would have been up 6.6%, but still not terribly impressive relative to the double-digit gains seen in the most recent quarters. As political spending drove revenue gains in the third quarter of 2010, we expect this trend to continue. Operating margins (excluding charges) declined 80 basis points to 19.2% as cost containment failed to keep up with the pace of revenue in the quarter. Investment in Gannett's growing digital segment and rising newsprint prices (although partially offset by lower usage) also weighed on margins. We're pleased that the firm continues to cut its workforce and consolidate facilities to cut costs--something we view as necessary given the declining top line. After a dramatic improvement in margins in 2010 because of aggressive cost-cutting, we are skeptical that Gannett will be able to keep costs in check over the long run. As such, we expect the company will give back some of the recent margin gains over time as the growth in costs outpaces revenue growth. While Gannett improved its credit quality in the first quarter with leverage around 2 times, we're still disappointed (from a credit perspective) that the firm elected to double its dividend and resume share repurchases. With a Cash Flow Cushion just above 1 times our base-case expense and obligation forecast--before the effect of the increased dividend and share repurchases--we expect the firm's cash flow to just barely cover its debt and debtlike obligations. Longer term, we're also concerned about the firm's pension underfundedness. We would have preferred Gannett use its free cash flow toward reducing this liability before returning cash to shareholders. Lastly, we note that similarly leveraged peer New York Times NYT has not paid a dividend since 2008. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11735
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2011 10:48 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Morningstar on GCI's 4Q earnings:
| Quote: | | Consistent with our thesis, Gannett's GCI strong growth in broadcasting and digital still isn't enough to mitigate the continued revenue decline in the publishing segment. Margin expansion, however, exceeded our expectations and we plan to modestly raise our fair value estimate. The press release lacked commentary on the 2011 outlook, so we will be listening to the conference call for additional details. Political spending and the Winter Olympics earlier this year boosted Gannett's broadcasting segment 27% for the fourth quarter over the prior-year period. However, this strong growth, coupled with a 5.2% rise in digital, was not enough to create top-line growth for Gannett. Total revenue was flat for the quarter thanks to 6% and 4% declines in publishing advertising and circulation, respectively. In fact, after many quarters of decelerating quarter-over-quarter declines, publishing advertising posted a deeper decline in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter. In our view, this displays that our pessimistic thesis on publishing advertising--even as advertising as a whole is picking up--is playing out. Operating margins were the bright spot for the firm. Excluding restructuring and noncash charges, they rose nearly 300 basis points to 24% for the fourth quarter. We believe efficiency efforts and facility consolidations enacted throughout the downturn have paid off for Gannett. The firm is still focused on costs, as it has continued consolidation and workforce reduction announcements throughout the past year. However, we think Gannett needs to show some real top-line improvement in order to hold on to margin gains. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Please log in to view without the ad banners |
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
Powered by phpBB
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Statistics
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
