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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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 Posted: Sun May 06, 2012 9:31 am Post subject: |
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sat May 05, 2012 5:37 am Post subject: |
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Morningstar on GM's 1Q earnings.
| Quote: | | General Motors Company GM reported first-quarter results Thursday that beat Street expectations. At first glance, we see no reason to change our investment thesis based on the results, so we are likely to leave our fair value estimate in place. Adjusted earnings per diluted share came in at $0.93 and consolidated revenue was $37.8 billion. Both figures beat consensus estimates of $0.85 and $37.6 billion. The only special items this quarter were a $590 million GM Europe goodwill-impairment charge and a $22 million goodwill-impairment charge in GM International. Adjusted EBIT came in at just under $2.2 billion compared with $2.0 bill ion in the first quarter of 2011, while adjusted EBIT margin increased 20 basis points year over year to 5.8%. All segments were profitable except for GME, which posted an adjusted loss of $256 million compared with a $5 million profit in the prior year's quarter. The only good news about GME is the loss is about half of what it was in the fourth quarter of 2011 and about the same as the third quarter. This could suggest that Europe is bottoming out, but only time will tell. Even if it is the bottom, we do not expect major improvement for GME this year. Management also gave second- and third-quarter guidance for North American results to be "comparable" with first-quarter numbers. At the consolidated level, an approximate $400 million positive year-over-year contribution from volume and about an $800 million contribution from pricing offset higher costs and an unfavorable mix contribution, resulting in the approximate $200 million year-over-year adjusted EBIT increase. GM North America, the most critical segment for GM, posted solid results with adjusted EBIT up 35% year over year to nearly $1.7 billion and adjusted EBIT margin up 130 basis points to 7%. Strong contributions from higher volume and pricing comfortably offset negative contributions in mix and costs. Our only concern in GMNA is that the ratio of GM's U.S. incentives as a percentage of average transaction price compared with the industry's percentage has crept up above 1.0 as the year has unfolded, reaching 1.15 in April. Although this ratio is lower than the company's incentive binge in January and February 2011 (1.25 and 1.22, respectively), management's long-stated intention is to have this ratio be about 1.0 for a year, so we expect this ratio to decline in the future. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Feb 16, 2012 7:25 pm Post subject: |
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...and a pension buyout program (stealthily optionable by "gimme the money now" UAW) with full 5yr window before the legally have to drop another dime and the perhaps the best stock trade with bond-bubble-burst embedded call. And a YOY performance that would have made the Morningstar 5-star "Fund Manger of the Year Award" to boot!
30 car launch in S. America in context of 10 depreciation of reAl should be back to $200-400m if china has seen the worst--where GM continues to gain share after a hard quarter.
They actually may be getting lucky with an Iran 2012 oil spike vis-a-vis their PU transition. When was the last time GM got lucky with any of their timing?!
The market is underweight cyclcals now and deeply underweight autos. Suppliers have big known regulatory unknowns and capex coming. Wrap it all up with an Obama shoe-in and tie it off with a 10% ave.tax rate on 11B.
Nice double-digit reversal on mandatory earnings sell-off. I might just save face on this old war-horse yet! (Convertible Preferreds still one of the great undisturbed dividends in this market).
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Thu Feb 16, 2012 2:11 pm Post subject: |
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Morningstar on GM's 4Q results. No longer on "death watch," obviously. Never thought I'd see the day: "Geographic results were disappointing other than in North America..."
| Quote: | | General Motors Company GM reported fourth-quarter results Thursday that missed consensus by $0.02 per diluted share. Revenue came in at $38 billion, up 3% year over year, but missed Street expectations of $38.2 billion. GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders was $472 million, or $0.28 per share. These results include $0.11 per share of special charges, however, so the adjusted $0.39 per share missed consensus by $0.02. Special items consisted of a $749 million gain related to the establishment of a health-care trust for the Canadian Auto Workers union, a $400 million gain for reversal of a deferred tax asset valuation allowance in Australia, a $63 million gain on debt extinguishment, a $621 million goodwill impairment charge for GM Europe, a $258 million goodwill impairment for GM International (GMIO), and a $555 million impairment on GM's investment in Ally Financial common stock. Adjusted EBIT came in at $1.1 billion, up from $1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2010. Geographic results were disappointing other than in North America (GMNA), which saw its adjusted EBIT rise to $1.5 billion from about $800 million in the year-ago quarter. GMNA did well thanks to a $1.3 billion improvement in volume, pricing, and cost reductions offsetting a $600 million unfavorable mix variance. The unit's EBIT margin improved to 6.5% from 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2010. The only good thing to say about GM Europe is that the $562 million loss was about flat with the prior year's quarter (EBIT before restructuring declined about $100 million year over year). GMIO margins excluding China declined 60 basis points year over year to 1.5%, while GM South America's margins fell to negative 5.4% from p ositive 4.4% in the prior year's quarter. It appears the company has not yet been able to recoup development costs in South America. The balance sheet remains in great shape, with total automotive liquidity of $37.5 billion at year-end, $31.6 billion of which is cash and investments. The U.S. pension plan finished the year 88% funded compared with 89% funded at the end of 2010. U.S. plan underfunding at the end of 2011 was $13.3 billion (excluding a $900 million nonqualified plan projected benefit obligation) compared with $11.5 billion at the end of 2010. Non-U.S. plan underfunding finished 2011 $11.2 billion underfunded compared with $9.9 billion underfunded at the end of 2010. We will publish another note after the earnings call. |
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 5:25 pm Post subject: |
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Ah to be so right...and so unrewarded 
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000066404
2010-11 all about bonds....and nowhere more true than the autos.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 7:03 am Post subject: |
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The "city of the future" 2.0:
| Quote: | | At the 1939 World’s Fair in New York, General Motors sponsored a “Futurama” exhibit that depicted what the world might look like 20 years in the future. Back then, suburbs connected to cities by high-speed expressways were the thing of dreams, but something that came to pass soon afterwards thanks in part to the vehicles built by GM and other automakers. |
http://www.gminsidenews.com/forums/f12/general-motors-helping-design-city-future-china-104962/
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2011 8:23 pm Post subject: |
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92.9% of dealerships are profitable, the highest number since the 1970’s.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Thu Aug 04, 2011 2:52 pm Post subject: |
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Morningstar on GM's 2Q earnings:
| Quote: | | General Motors GM reported second-quarter results Thursday that crushed market expectations. We think GM had an outstanding quarter; these results confirm our investment thesis, so we are likely to leave our fair value estimate in place. However, macroeconomic fears of slowing economies in the United States and Europe are likely to keep GM's stock down despite the excellent results. Every geographic region was profitable, and we were quite pleased to see GM North America report an $800 million improvement to EBIT from pricing compared with the year-ago quarter. This same figure for the first quarter was negative $300 million, which shows GM enjoyed much higher profit from incentives as a percentage of average transaction price being much more aligned with the industry average, compared with the high incentives GM used in January and February. For the quarter, GM reported net income attributable to common stockholders of about $2.5 billion, or $1.54 per diluted share. Market consensus was for $1.20 per share. Revenue increased 18.7% to $39.4 billion, and every geographic region was profitable. Automotive free cash flow was $3.8 billion, up $1 billion from the second quarter of 2010. We will analyze the results further and publish a detailed note after the earnings call. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun May 08, 2011 8:20 am Post subject: aa |
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On the contrary, the volume made the incentives (which now have dissipated) pay. Moving old Impalas, HHRs and Malibus was just the ticket. And it gained them "share." Reuss (the next CEO in my book) has said all along judge the incentives on across '11. And Escalades are always going to goose their incentive numbers anyway.
What was disappointing was costs. A doubling of NA profits was all but wiped out here. Too bad govt didn't allow any steel derivatives for company. Just the delivery costs alone are jaw dropping for these guys. And europe special charges of $400m. But zero is priced in here. Those same costs got them a successful launch of Cruze (which should spillover to Sonic) however. And the Fiesta and Focus for Ford. That's big. The beach-head has been made. And now with 50cents coming off gas this summer (http://www.cnbc.com/id/42943799) trucks should hum right along. Ford's eco-boost V6 F-150 (at $1500 premium) is flying off lots.
And those GM "one-times special bonuses" are going to keep coming: another $1.5B out of Delphi/Ally, $2B warrant exercise, $9/share NOLs, $400 million in Pension scheds, amortization--speaking of which was last marked Dec '09. That's $100B at SP 800! It was heavy on bonds but should be interesting. I don't see how they aren't fully-funded by Xmas.
Lotta value here, lotta skepticism. Brits keep thinking we're on verge of chinese flood. The chinese gave up on that 2 years ago. Oligopoly is alive and well. Ford at 5 X EBITAP and GM lower by a factor--plenty of "discovery" left here--esp if funds stop chasing XOM.
Of course there's a huge forced sale yet to come. US Govt. The vultures will have their way for awhile--but that's why there's options.
Still bullish Detroit iron--at these prices it's entirely possible that these companies have their current market caps in cash in three years. 
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sat May 07, 2011 4:02 pm Post subject: |
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Morningstar on GM's 1Q earnings:
| Quote: | | General Motors Company GM reported first-quarter results Thursday that beat market expectations, but underlying numbers at first glance look weaker than we would like to see. Net income attributable to common stockholders was $3.2 billion, or $1.77 per share. Excluding $1.5 billion of special items, earnings were $0.95 per share. The most significant special items were a $1.6 billion gain on the sale of Delphi, $0.3 billion gain on sale of Ally Financial preferred stock, and a $0.4 billion goodwill-impairment charge at GM Europe. Revenue looked strong at $36.2 billion, up $4.7 billion from the first quarter of 2010. Unlike results at Ford Motor Company F, GM's first quarter did not show improvements to EBIT coming from pricing, just volume. This fact suggests to us that GM's use of incentives is hurting profitability more than management would like to admit. We will publish a more detailed note after the earnings call. |
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