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rffrydr
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 Posted: Fri May 17, 2013 7:16 pm Post subject: |
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Phil Lebeau actually stuck his head up today and said something about autos...so terribly un-telegenic these past few years. Good solid yield for those in the know 
Of course the rally comes on the heels of rising subprime delinquencies, plateauing sales and gargantuan capital investment across the industry. Of course the rally only comes as we're simply the last orphans standing. Scent of anti-austerity our "proximate" cause, but the spark? That we'll chalk up to Tesla. Yes, last week's Bloomberg piece headlined Tesla worth more than Fiat, far from making me wanna run out and short Tesla's skinny float, just the opposite, what the hell was Fiat doing down at start-up territory?!
Now it's clear to the indexers that if you want "exposure" to autos you're not getting that with Toyota. It becoming clear what a building boomlet will do to trucks. And there is the faint memory of just what "fair market" accounting can do from the tiniest of upticks in economies. And the SP 500 calls. Besides, the primal rule, the govt already got "screwed."
I'll be selling covered calls into an unfavorable BK ruling mid-june and waiting through the cold reality of earnings (where it wll become clear there is no imminent dividend nor buybacks). At this point the convertible preferred is too expensive and warrants too "premium." Synthetic longs best way. And that's the way you wanna be--for next year.
Another good get, Warren 
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Mar 11, 2013 10:05 am Post subject: |
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Wudda, cudda, shudda:
| Quote: | | The price under discussion, according to the Wall Street Journal, would value the GM building at $3.4 billion—by far the most expensive in the United States. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2013 11:22 am Post subject: |
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Nope, slip of ol' Dan's tongue (he's paving his way out these days)... JPM and Citi will manage the sellout and GM will buy back its VEBA preferred next year to put about $1billion back into the run. Putting the DTA on the books this year, if they go for it, should scramble the numbers pretty good.
Like straddles against a core (convertible or warrant) from here on out to sept.
The CFO misquote of DB conference yesterday (that sets the tone for the industry '13) coupled with an unfavorable ruling for the old creditors in the next week or so should be a good op to leg in on the low side. 
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2013 2:32 pm Post subject: |
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Couldn't quite believe my eyes when I saw this morning:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323442804578231482062170950.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
I don't think anybody was looking for GM to buy out all, or even much, of the remaining 300m govt. shares. Original press release quoted 12-15mos "into open market by diverse means and in accordance to pre-determined written plan." But we have an old hedge fund hand here and you're never gonna get an easier path thru Big Labor than paying back the taxpayer. And we have a time frame, EOY. The new Treas. Sec. won't matter 'cause Obama himself must've signed off.
There will be small offsetting dilution with the mandatory convertibles coming this year at about, 300,000 shares and BK liquidation of another 1-2million shares, depending on how much is dumped. So, say, one-percent of govt remaining stake. Further, Warrants vest in outlying years, so there some kind of NPV dilution there.
GM needs 50% float to get on SP500 (index buying coming) so part of the stake is going into trading, but even if they bought out half, that's almost half the current float and twice the swing on shares immediately anticipated. There's certainly no love out there, you can hear the hate still in the interviewer's voice
Now that Ford warrants have been exercised we may be able to work american auto up to World multiples.
Stay tuned:
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 4:00 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | ...Let me just add to that, Tom, and Alan may want to add something too. This is Mark. You’ve got to be careful. Our portfolio is the very oldest in the industry right now. And yet, we have the highest average transaction prices. So, we’re setting the stage here from a residual basis, from a value basis, and from a new model basis to launch the biggest product portfolio initiative in General Motors’ history.
And so, there’s a huge opportunity for us. When does it actually happen? It happens when we begin selling new things like the Impala, new things like the Encore from Buick, which we don’t have any availability on right now. We’re just getting availability on the new Acadia, which is very hot in GMC. And then, we start doing the trucks and then the SUVs and then the mid-sized trucks. In the mix of all of that, we have the new Corvette. We have a massive improvement for the new Camaro.
We have all of these cars and trucks happening in the next year, year and a half. So, if there’s a switch that you’re going to throw and say this is when – you know judge us, give us 18 months and you’re going to see the whole portfolio turned. It will be the biggest portfolio turned, I think, in automotive history.... |
--Mark Reuss, Dec Sales call
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Nov 02, 2012 11:32 am Post subject: |
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Goldman Sachs analyst Patrick Archambault in a note says:
| Quote: | | We are increasingly more positive on GM, which trades at just 1.9x our 2013 EBITDAP estimate, even post today’s 9.5% rally (vs. S&P +0.02%), and does not adequately reflect growth prospects. We expect more of this upside to be harvested as we approach two key 2013 catalysts: (1) the critical k2xx (new Silverado pickup truck) launch, and (2) the possible exit of the Treasury’s 27% stake post elections. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 7:22 am Post subject: |
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Beats estimates by 50%, china and europe were supposed to fall off cliff. One of 'em did
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 7:03 am Post subject: |
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Jim Grant has one on-air pick: GM at 5 X forward. I can't believe my ears.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2012 8:58 pm Post subject: |
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GM Other World covers Europe almost 2X, still a US pure play...nobody gives a chit.
Ford should just take back the company at this point.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2012 1:43 pm Post subject: |
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Morningstar on GM's 2Q earnings.
| Quote: | | General Motors Company GM reported second-quarter results Thursday morning of $0.90 per diluted share, which beat consensus of $0.74. As with the year-ago period, there were no special items. The company did miss on revenue, however, with sales down year-over-year 4.5% to $37.6 billion, compared to consensus of about $38.6 billion. Management cited the top-line decrease as almost entirely attributable to the stronger dollar relative to other currencies, which is most likely a reference to the weaker euro. We will publish a longer note after the call, but as of now we do not see anything in the results to merit a change in our fair value estimate. GM Europe (GME) and GM South America (GMSA) were the only markets to lose money this quarter. We were pleasantly surprised that the loss in GME was $361 million, compared to a profit of $102 million during the year-ago period. The severe economic conditions in Europe and contraction in Opel's volume this year suggested a worse result. GME's loss was actually smaller than Ford's F European second-quarter loss of $404 million. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, GM's total first-half vehicle registrations declined by 10.8%, versus 6.8% for the industry. Opel and Vauxhall were down a combined 15%, while Chevrolet rose 14%. With Sunday’s "resignation" of global marketing boss Joel Ewanick, investors will have to keep waiting to see how GM plans to have Chevrolet and Opel coexist in Europe without severely cannibalizing each other. GMSA posted negative adjusted EBIT of $19 million compared to a profit of $57 million during the year-ago quarter. In China, the company appears to be suffering from a negative mix shift, likely due to the luxury brand price war. GM's Chinese unit sales are up 11.2% year-over-year in the first half of 2012, but China profit margins posted a second-quarter decline by 180 bps year-over-year, to 9.3%. On the more positive side, the company continues to generate free cash flow in the auto division ($1.7 billion in the second quarter, versus $3.8 billion a year ago), the global pension underfunding improved by about $500 million from March 31, and total automotive liquidity increased sequentially to $38.5 billion. GM North America (GMNA) posted second-quarter adjusted EBIT of just under $2 billion compared to $2.2 billion during 2011's second quarter, but margin declined 110 bps to 8.6%. GMNA’s results exceeded the guidance that management had put forth in its first quarter release, due to the deferral of some spending into the third quarter. Guidance for GMNA remains that the average of second-quarter and third-quarter adjusted EBIT will be comparable to the first quarter's results. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2012 7:49 am Post subject: |
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He was just on autoline two weeks ago:
http://www.autoline.tv/journal/?p=22497
Made the point that they worked and spent their asses off on the Super Bowl to get 600000 "impressions"--they got a billion off the Manchester U. press release alone!
Moving Opel high-end was a mistake now widely acknowledged. The plant pull and Peugeot will go a long way toward evening these guys out...the management turnover a Kubuki theatre for dealing with Euro Unions. The Ewanik team is up and working. Facebook was a good move. Superbowl that's a good question. None of this matters a hoot for a stock selling for less than cash.
Watch for surprise on earnings Thrus....which will be forgotten in minutes.
Here's Petee's take:
For a company that once roamed the earth in dominant fashion, marketing and advertising has never been its strong suit, and GM’s “culture” – such as it is – was never going to get comfortable with a Joel Ewanick for very long. He’s too quick, at times mercurial, and too much a man of motion for the plodding calcification of the GM system. In one of my favorite moves by Ewanick, he had the cojones to tell Facebook to get their act together and actually provide some recognizable value for their paid advertising content. And he was absolutely right. He knew they were basically selling "air" and he was unafraid to call them on it.
It could be argued fairly, too, that Ewanick didn’t spend enough time defining and differentiating GM’s brands, while focusing too much on his “big-picture” endeavors. And that proved costly to GM's efforts.
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....Over the years I’ve come to realize that GM’s view of marketing and advertising was that it is something that they were forced to do – a necessary evil of sorts – as opposed to something that they actually wanted to do, and someone like Joel Ewanick was anathema to that very notion. Joel did some tremendous work on GM's behalf and moved the needle notably in his brief two-year run. But he also did something untoward, inappropriate and indefensible in the course of doing business that was deemed completely unacceptable. And because of that most of the goodwill Joel accrued at GM was lost overnight. |
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 6:14 pm Post subject: |
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Morningstar on GM's latest executive move.
| Quote: | | General Motors Company GM announced Sunday that its global chief marketing officer, Joel Ewanick, 52, resigned effective immediately, but we do not see this news as reason to change our fair value estimate. A GM spokesperson told numerous media outlets that Ewanick "failed to meet expectations the company has for its employees." Ewanick joined GM in May 2010. The Wall Street Journal reported that GM told Ewanick he was being ousted for "failing to properly vet the financial details of a European soccer sponsorship deal." We think it is likely that the deal referenced is GM's May 31 announcement that for the next five years Chevrolet is the automotive partner of the Manchester United soccer team. It is unclear if there were other reasons for the departure, but we think it is possible that Ewanick is also being held accountable for GM procuring $600,000 of advertising services from an agency where one of the partners is the wife of GM's CFO. U.S. sales and service head, Alan Batey, 49, will take on Ewanick's role on an interim basis. It may be difficult for GM to hire an outside replacement given the government's limits on executive pay under the TARP program. Ewanick's advertising moves have been seen by some as controversial. For example, we strongly disagree with the decision to not advertise in the next Super Bowl given the ultra-important launch next year of the next generation of full-size pickups. We continue to be frustrated by constant turnover in senior leadership roles at GM. The only bright spot from Sunday's news is that CEO Dan Akerson can now hire whoever he wants to lead marketing. Ewanick was hired by Akerson's predecessor, Ed Whitacre. For now, however, we see GM's brand positioning in even more limbo than it was already. GM recently backed off its stated plan from last year to position Chevrolet in Europe just below Opel while moving Opel upscale. Until a new marketing officer is in place and familiarizes themselves with GM, GM's strategy in Europe may continue to stall. GM reports second-quarter results on Thursday morning but we doubt there will be more disclosures at that time regarding Ewanick's departure. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Jul 24, 2012 10:58 am Post subject: |
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In a coupla weeks, Chevrolet is going to post the best quarter it's ever had in hundred years, by certain profitibility measures...and its maker sells for less than costs of its plants....and, sadly, I know exactly why.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Jul 06, 2012 8:23 am Post subject: |
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It's all about that little yellow carpool lane sticker.
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HenryTo
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