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GM Death Watch
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Author GM Death Watch
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2006 1:53 pm    Post subject: GM Death Watch Reply with quote

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/editorials.php

GM is up about 19% in the last couple of weeks, BUT fundamentals IMO have not changed.

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/editorials.php

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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 15, 2017 9:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mannheim data just fine....Dealers snapping it all up. Leaseback "carmeggadon" oversold as we are just working through a structural shift in (higher cost) autos: knee-saving, baby-wipe friendly compact cross-overs.

As always with these volatile bond autos, use options to supercharge your yield and zig and zag your way through the next, probably mild recession (and/or china pullback). You'll have the wind at your back as GM has just dodged it's second Activist. Look for the Buybacks to get real.
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PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 11:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Selling"carmeghadon"....graduallu:. Naked 33sept strike puts at;33.75ish

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/05/04/what-investors-need-to-know-about-general-motors-f.aspx?yptr=yahoo
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 06, 2017 9:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

...Like always:

http://seekingalpha.com/filing/3446413
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 03, 2017 7:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sell the news: they're gonna end up paying to get rid of it --like always.

--buy the dip
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 15, 2017 6:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.forbes.com/sites/martinsosnoff/2017/02/15/general-motors-value-trap-or-best-buy/?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix&yptr=yahoo
General Motors counts up to a cheap piece of paper, but so what? Selling under half the market’s valuation, consensus speaks loudly: “This is an end of cycle phenomenon. Wait until they padlock their factories and work off 100 days of excess inventory.”
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 15, 2017 9:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

They say "sell"...but what they really mean is "giveaway" (with a backdoor for Cadillac and Bolt) --which is a good thing.
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 04, 2017 9:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ALLY finally getting traction:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4041515-ally-financial-cheapest-bank-around
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dan Amman DB Auto Conference:

Quote:
So when you look at the true underlying revenue performance that was generated in the business over the last three years, we have $30 billion of revenue performance. $30 billion, very few companies in any industry can generate an incremental $30 billion of revenue performance on their baseline business. But that's what we have. So I'm going to take that a little bit further here. So $30 billion on a $155 billion just about a 6% CAGR on that. We have generated that 6% CAGR on an industry that's growing globally at 3% but if you look just at the industry ex China which is what our revenues relate to because we don't consolidate our China revenues, the global industry over that same timeframe has grown at 1%. So our revenue growth rate, our true underlying revenue performance has been 6x the industry rate.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 21, 2016 8:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Largest defined benefit pension on the books....some have forgotten
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 27, 2016 7:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Third-quarter records:
Net Income of $2.8 billion, up 104 percent
EBIT-adjusted of $3.5 billion, up 14.4 percent
EBIT-adjusted margin of 8.3 percent
EPS diluted of $1.76, up 110 percent
EPS diluted-adjusted of $1.72, up 14.7 percent
North America EBIT-adjusted of $3.5 billion
Adjusted automotive free-cash-flow of $3.5 billion, up $2.7 billion

Market takedown....par for the course here in autoland. Should be a one-day wonder as there's not a lotta believers here--and of those, an IPO price exit was probably tempting.

Continue to see this as one of the best dividends out there (coupled with some call writes you'll moderate the vol and boost the return). "Value" does have to be adjusted to PENSION, but still....
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 27, 2016 3:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

1.24%....UH-OH!

I'm long this after writing 6-mos puts, after being long the preferreds from anos pasados. Look forward to dividend and buyback plan while I wait. Ironically, it's a Millenial play!
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 6:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.gm.com/investors/earnings-releases.html

One headline had to spell out that was billions, with a "B"

It's been a month of "peak auto"; three month of "sub-prime abyss", six months of "falling off a chinese cliff"... nearly a full year since "the looming recession" started to price in. Been doing the divvy handoff between Ford and call write....waiting. Made sure to go into earnings clean as Mary's body-language has been unmistakable.

Still--has to stick for the day. If not, I'll be "putting" myself some more.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 06, 2016 11:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bought the Jan 18, Fiat 7.00 strikes this morning
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 06, 2016 8:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It has now become an article of faith that next on the Silicon Valley disruptive "hit list" is a biggie, the Auto Industry. Why? Because Elon says its so. Nevermind the Model S was designed and "built" in Detroit; that the Google Jellybean was designed and built by Roush performance in Detroit and that the same has just entered a joint venture with Fiat to build its first batch of cars. Nevermind that "automated" driving is current technology and has been in wide deployment over the past half decade. Traction control IS automated driving. Last week, taking a drive in a friends Mercedes the car braked in the middle of the freeway when we chose to bypass its preferred exit for the next one. The same car's steering wheel vibrates intensely when you lane drift (last thing I want is think I've gotten a flat or broken suspension in that circumstance) So much for safety. No, any of this is beside the point.

Ridesharing, the end of autos? Of course we're all just taking out of our asses at this point. Indeed, there is every reason to believe that ridesharing, long before "autonomy" is achieved will actually increase the number of vehicles in demand as we gather up the sick and infirm and all the rest out of the loop. Uber currently lets drivers buy a new car and have the payments automatically deducted--and since drivers here naturally tend toward the jalopy challenged.... Is this not the "company store" reinvented? One thing we do know: the average driver in the US drives 15000 miles/year. Uber breaks down to about $1.50/mi. "The Future" does not compute.

The most formidable challenge of all still lies ahead, not the trial lawyers in themselves, but that all-important scheme in the auto biz, that there be somebody to blame for all our shortcomings. Currently "progressive" California has basically legislated hands-on drivers for any and all "autonomy". Google is appealing.

No. None of those are "it." The great wizard Elon says? Elon has been good for the whole industry and irreplaceable in the promotion of electric propulsion. And what do we got? 3% of sales. And Elon crying not to use his superchargers, which already aren't for us anyway (after helping specify what was supposed to be the "standard" plug in the first place!) As a driver, and lover, of an electric car I can tell you "range anxiety" is real. And so is the charging anxiety--and that's where we bump up against that greater social trend that is pulling us toward autonomy in driving in the first place: Woman. More properly the rise in the "liberated" modern purchasing agent: woman and her wishes and wants in all things traditionally bequeathed to the men of the world. Indeed full autonomous driving has long been in practice: Husbands and Fathers. It's coming to the point where the last vestige of manly duties is the continuous plugging of phones etc. in addition to taking the drudgery out of driving, becoming the family chauffer. And there it is, for Women, and by extension, Millenials, driving is drudgery. And without autonomous vehicles there is no divorce! But now we're back to plugging the damn thing in. My experience shows that woman just can't be counted on to do this in the way required. The cables are big, dirty, wet, cold and DANGEROUS. When baby is on board, that is just a risk too far. Enter the man once again!

Model "X" how about the recalls on those doors. Model "3" in 2018, when you actually take delivery will the $35,000 buyer pony up the additional $7500....will they pay the subscription rate for the chargers and the $3000 "option" for supercharging--let alone "autonomous" mode???

Forgetting all that, let's consider the two cultures: Silicon Valley has a thing known as "beta testing". Samsung just announced that its desktops can't function properly on Windows 10: this after how many years?! And what little company are we talking about??? The guinea pigs are what makes the Valley's Bayesian vision click. Your phone crashes, becomes insecure, drops your precious memories? Update. Your car?

There are already innumerable "computers" on board your vehicle. And the chip demand in the auto industry is as large as any. Google teamed with Fiat because it is Fiat that has the very heavy infrastructure to make real world work... work every day, rain shine or snow (which Google's jelly bean car is already challenged). A car's lifecycle currently is around 11yrs. A phone??? How many different operating systems does it have to work with for friend and family?

Apple has no interest in building cars. This entire adventure as more to do with liberating itself from the tarry grip of Ican and his ilk. Want to ringfence $60B in cash? Plans for building cars will do that. By the time Apple partners up with whomever and actually gets one of these off the ground (2021-2025) they will have moved on to whatever it is in Consumer Interfaces that they really want to accomplish (the long heralded "TV"?)

Auto companies are tools of the nation state. They work and function in ways antithetical to "disrupters" of any net worth. The Silicon Valley opposition, like all oppositions is false. And the family car, already being taken up in droves by the "carless" Millennials will be with us for a long long time. Meanwhile there is a global economy that just maybe move into synchrony. Imagine what that could do for automaker profits. And what of our Liberated Woman purchaser? All roads lead to Mr. Right. Wink
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PostPosted: Fri May 20, 2016 9:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

"That's a worry too..." jeeziz!
http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-05-20/negative-equity-hits-the-car-market
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