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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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 Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 5:25 pm Post subject: |
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Ah to be so right...and so unrewarded 
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000066404
2010-11 all about bonds....and nowhere more true than the autos.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 7:03 am Post subject: |
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The "city of the future" 2.0:
| Quote: | | At the 1939 World’s Fair in New York, General Motors sponsored a “Futurama” exhibit that depicted what the world might look like 20 years in the future. Back then, suburbs connected to cities by high-speed expressways were the thing of dreams, but something that came to pass soon afterwards thanks in part to the vehicles built by GM and other automakers. |
http://www.gminsidenews.com/forums/f12/general-motors-helping-design-city-future-china-104962/
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2011 8:23 pm Post subject: |
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92.9% of dealerships are profitable, the highest number since the 1970’s.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Thu Aug 04, 2011 2:52 pm Post subject: |
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Morningstar on GM's 2Q earnings:
| Quote: | | General Motors GM reported second-quarter results Thursday that crushed market expectations. We think GM had an outstanding quarter; these results confirm our investment thesis, so we are likely to leave our fair value estimate in place. However, macroeconomic fears of slowing economies in the United States and Europe are likely to keep GM's stock down despite the excellent results. Every geographic region was profitable, and we were quite pleased to see GM North America report an $800 million improvement to EBIT from pricing compared with the year-ago quarter. This same figure for the first quarter was negative $300 million, which shows GM enjoyed much higher profit from incentives as a percentage of average transaction price being much more aligned with the industry average, compared with the high incentives GM used in January and February. For the quarter, GM reported net income attributable to common stockholders of about $2.5 billion, or $1.54 per diluted share. Market consensus was for $1.20 per share. Revenue increased 18.7% to $39.4 billion, and every geographic region was profitable. Automotive free cash flow was $3.8 billion, up $1 billion from the second quarter of 2010. We will analyze the results further and publish a detailed note after the earnings call. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun May 08, 2011 8:20 am Post subject: aa |
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On the contrary, the volume made the incentives (which now have dissipated) pay. Moving old Impalas, HHRs and Malibus was just the ticket. And it gained them "share." Reuss (the next CEO in my book) has said all along judge the incentives on across '11. And Escalades are always going to goose their incentive numbers anyway.
What was disappointing was costs. A doubling of NA profits was all but wiped out here. Too bad govt didn't allow any steel derivatives for company. Just the delivery costs alone are jaw dropping for these guys. And europe special charges of $400m. But zero is priced in here. Those same costs got them a successful launch of Cruze (which should spillover to Sonic) however. And the Fiesta and Focus for Ford. That's big. The beach-head has been made. And now with 50cents coming off gas this summer (http://www.cnbc.com/id/42943799) trucks should hum right along. Ford's eco-boost V6 F-150 (at $1500 premium) is flying off lots.
And those GM "one-times special bonuses" are going to keep coming: another $1.5B out of Delphi/Ally, $2B warrant exercise, $9/share NOLs, $400 million in Pension scheds, amortization--speaking of which was last marked Dec '09. That's $100B at SP 800! It was heavy on bonds but should be interesting. I don't see how they aren't fully-funded by Xmas.
Lotta value here, lotta skepticism. Brits keep thinking we're on verge of chinese flood. The chinese gave up on that 2 years ago. Oligopoly is alive and well. Ford at 5 X EBITAP and GM lower by a factor--plenty of "discovery" left here--esp if funds stop chasing XOM.
Of course there's a huge forced sale yet to come. US Govt. The vultures will have their way for awhile--but that's why there's options.
Still bullish Detroit iron--at these prices it's entirely possible that these companies have their current market caps in cash in three years. 
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sat May 07, 2011 4:02 pm Post subject: |
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Morningstar on GM's 1Q earnings:
| Quote: | | General Motors Company GM reported first-quarter results Thursday that beat market expectations, but underlying numbers at first glance look weaker than we would like to see. Net income attributable to common stockholders was $3.2 billion, or $1.77 per share. Excluding $1.5 billion of special items, earnings were $0.95 per share. The most significant special items were a $1.6 billion gain on the sale of Delphi, $0.3 billion gain on sale of Ally Financial preferred stock, and a $0.4 billion goodwill-impairment charge at GM Europe. Revenue looked strong at $36.2 billion, up $4.7 billion from the first quarter of 2010. Unlike results at Ford Motor Company F, GM's first quarter did not show improvements to EBIT coming from pricing, just volume. This fact suggests to us that GM's use of incentives is hurting profitability more than management would like to admit. We will publish a more detailed note after the earnings call. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu May 05, 2011 10:16 pm Post subject: |
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From Investopedia:
"Top Things To Know For An Investment Banking Interview"
Debt or Equity?
Since investment banking involves helping companies issue equity and debt, familiarity with these concepts is fairly important. Increasing the level of debt in a firm's capital structure presents many benefits. Most importantly, since interest payments are tax deductible debt is considered the cheaper form of financing (you should commit this to memory).
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu May 05, 2011 7:28 am Post subject: |
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Nope....GM is sticking to its own "great de-leveraging" and follows up one great NZ CFO with another by the looks of it. Thought Akerson's push-push-push, style would be realized in finance. Is this a new model for business or example of government utility? --Probably both. But with chinese paying in cash, they have an ace-in-the-hole here.
Banks falling over themselves to lend in this (one?) space now so there's plenty of backdoor leverage anyway.
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000020281
There'll be another "special credit" $billion-dollar plus coming next quarter with the old creditors warrants coming in....and, though given no credit for this, Wall St. is gonna wake up sometime next year with a $20B pension arrears fully-funded.
As usual there's not a lot of market respect here. Only time can prove that. Last quarter it was oh-no GM has to sell a small car to "make or break" the company. Of course the oil spike (yes, looking more and more like that) was the perfect launching pad for the Cruze--which will be the default vehicle for Ford's "zany" fiesta i.e. golder people.
Gov't share will keep a lid on price but that in itself can set up a nice post-rally. Meanwhile it freezes that old nemesis of autos, labor.
Looking now at japanese small suppliers here.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2011 7:39 am Post subject: |
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Chris Liddell is gone and so too I'd expect his noble vision of a debt-free car company. He declared the days of the $60B manufacturer encompassed in a $100B finance company over. When it was him that was over.
Too bad. He could've been GM's first "thinkiing man" CEO. Back to the bully model with Lt. Dan Akerson, who's continuing managment shakeups are probably not conducive to anything.
As an investor I gotta like this direction. Chevy is all about sub-prime, baby. No way around that one. So.....
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Fri Feb 25, 2011 3:17 am Post subject: |
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Morningstar on GM's 4Q results:
| Quote: | | General Motors Company GM reported fourth-quarter and full-year results Thursday. Our first take is there is nothing here to weaken our optimism on the future of the new GM. Excluding special items, the company reported diluted earnings per share of $0.52 for the quarter. GAAP EPS was $0.31, mostly because of a previously announced $700 million charge for repurchasing the U.S. Treasury's Series A preferred shares. The company had already said that fourth-quarter results would be weaker than the other three quarters, which did happen. EBIT was $1.3 billion, the lowest amount of the year. GM North America led the way with $813 million in EBIT, and all other segments were profitable except GM Europe. Europe posted negative EBIT of $568 million, an improvement from negative $799 million in the fourth quarter of 2009. We expect GM Europe to not be profitable until at least 2012. The balance sheet remains very strong, with net cash at year-end of about $22 billion. Also, as we expected, GM announced it no longer has a material weakness in financial reporting. We will continue to analyze the results after the earnings call. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Feb 24, 2011 4:18 pm Post subject: |
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GM's earnings were fine for where they are, where they guided and especially vis-a-vis Ford. Another reminder that there are big labor, marketing and tooling costs in this biz.
What we saw today had nothing to do with earnings. Gas may hurt, though they've got some ready product for that. On the big launch, Cruze it couldn't be better. What we saw today was some of the big pile of Mideast money that went into the IPO. Daimler taking a lesser hit on the same. We'll see if underweight institutional can put some balance back in the price here.
Bought back one-third my call hedges and sold May 34 puts today. Peace in the MidEast and we'll have a good summer here.
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rffrydr
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