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Author GM
gregf
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2005 9:45 am    Post subject: GM Reply with quote

So, who thinks this is a washout for GM, whoa!

Looking at the bond screen at yahoo is pretty terrifying, yikes!
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 17, 2005 7:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Watched "Autoline Detroit" this morning, and the Buickman was on talking about some ways to save GM. Interesting stuff. He founded the www.generalwatch.com website, which has a blog. It seems most of the participants are shareholders or employees or both.

http://www.generalwatch.com/viewblogcomments.cfm?id=10

Quote from one post:
GM stock & Kerkorian
Jun 8, 2005
Rich Whitlock
rdubs9603@yahoo.com

Love everyone here's comments, and thanks for starting this site Jim.
I'm curious to know your thoughts on the whole Kerkorian deal. From what I can tell from reading the thoughts of those It is interesting to see that not everyone tendered their shares to him, even though it seems pretty clear that the only reason the stock price had a $31 floor set over the past month was due to his offer. I would argue that without his offer, the stock would have continued its slide (especially after not having a detailed turnaround plan presented at the meeting) and might be under $25 by now. So it would seem that the only reason it is over that today is because he got involved, but then people turned around and are holding their shares hoping it would go up more.
I am concerned because it seems that a successful turnaround is already priced into the stock price - but all available evidence shows that the current management team isn't the team for the job. I'm afraid that as long as GM isn't running out of cash, management won't feel any need to change how they've been doing business because either "the market will go our way here soon enough, all we have to do is wait it out" or "our next line of vehicles will be great, and we'll be out of this, just hold on." And not until cash runs out will a real sense of urgency to change things be felt. By then, with no cash, GM will be forced into bankruptcy and shareholders will lose everything. This is why I bring up the Kerkorian thing - with an artificially inflated stock price, management doesn't feel as great a need to change things.
Originally I was hoping someone would come in and create that needed sense of change by distributing as a dividend all of GM's excess cash to force management into changing its ways. Unfortunately, I think that would lead to bankruptcy and then the cash dividend would be have to be repaid to the banks and creditors under bankruptcy code.
In summary, I guess it seems strange that the Kerkorian offer wasn't fully taken up, even though the only reason for the stock to be so high IS his offer. Also, with the price where it is, and for some reason it seems reluctant to go below that $31 magic number, I don't think shareholders will feel the need to force a change in management or the board. Any thoughts?
Again Jim thanks for this great site, and for standing up to the large, immovable object named entrenched management.
Rich


BTW I think the Kerkorian move was actually done to settle scores, i.e. intention was to drive stock up to ruin some portfolios belonging to enemies. If Kerkorian actually wanted the stock for ownership purposes, he could have bought all he wanted for much less over the same time period, on the QT ... but the announcement made the stock go up with Kerkorian buying less than he said he wanted. Either the old man has lost it, or the gaining of ownership was not the primary purpose. Perhaps it was to drive the price up as a favor to current management?
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PostPosted: Fri May 06, 2005 3:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I get a kick out of folks that say "who could have seen it coming?" Well, just about anyone doing a fundamental analysis would have seen it coming. This company is a "dead man walking."

Free cash flow from 2002 through 2004 was negative 4.8 BILLION.

From 2000 to 2004 revenues grew 1.2% (not 12%, 1.2%) and income shrank 11% on an annualized basis.

The company's net worth was shrinking.

Return on assets has averaged 0.7% (not 7%, 0.7%) over this time.

Their INTEREST PAYMENTS took up 48% of their operating cash flow before interest. Let's restate - EBIT was 13.1 Billion, the "I" is 12 Billion. DUDE, xxx? It's a KINDNESS that their debt wasn't considered JUNK a long time ago.

Three consecutive years of Inventories/Assets climbing (5.3%, 5.9%, 6.3%).

It would take them NINE YEARS of current operating cash flow to pay off their CURRENT LIABILITIES. HAH!

So everyone was shocked when they warned about earnings? Only because they hadn't looked at financials. The trouble has been brewing for years.
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PostPosted: Thu May 05, 2005 12:53 pm    Post subject: GM and F downgrade Reply with quote

GM just got downgraded - whilst I was at lunch. Go figure.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

12:49pm 05/05/05

S&P cuts GM ratings to junk status, outlook negative (GM) By Carolyn Pritchard

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch)-- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services on Thursday cut its long- and short-term corporate credit ratings on General Motors Corp. (GM) , General Motors Acceptance Corp., and all related entities by two notches to "BB/B-1," or junk status, from "BBB-/A-3". The rating outlook is negative. S&P said the move reflects its conclusion that management's strategies may be ineffective in addressing GM's competitive disadvantages, though it notes that GM shouldn't have any difficulty accommodating its near-term cash requirements. The bid by Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. to increase its ownership stake in GM represents an additional uncertainty, S&P said, but said this was not a factor at all in the current rating action.
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PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2005 8:35 pm    Post subject: Kerkorian plays automotive roulette one more time Reply with quote

One of the best current articles on Kirk Kerkorian out there:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kerkorian plays automotive roulette one more time
Wed May 4, 2005 07:21 PM ET
(Adds comment from Kerkorian's lawyer)
DETROIT, May 4 (Reuters) - It has been about a decade since Las Vegas casino mogul Kirk Kerkorian launched an unsuccessful bid to take over Chrysler, but he doesn't seem to have lost his passion for high-stakes gambling and rolls of the automotive roulette wheel.

The 87-year-old dealmaker's Tracinda Corp. announced on Wednesday that he was offering up to $868 million to buy as many as 28 million shares in financially troubled General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research)

The news sent shares in the world's largest automaker up more than 18 percent, meaning Kerkorian single-handedly triggered a gain of more than $110 million in the value of the 22 million GM shares he disclosed he already owns.

A source close to Tracinda said the 22 million shares were bought by Kerkorian over the last three or four weeks.

It seems unlikely that Kerkorian was out to make a quick buck in announcing his tender offer, however, even if it came after GM's shares had slumped to their lowest level in more than a decade.

His move drove U.S. stocks broadly higher. And financial analysts said Kerkorian, who has positioned himself to raise his stake in GM to nearly 9 percent, appears to have more grandiose plans for the automaker than short-term profits.

That was certainly the case when he was an "active" investor at Chrysler and tried to gain control of GM's crosstown rival in the 1990s.

"We think Kerkorian's move could have potentially broad-reaching implications," JPMorgan analyst Himanshu Patel said in a note to investors.

"Forcing a sale of the GMAC business could potentially unlock significant value," Patel said, referring to the finance arm of GM that has served as a safety net as the automaker struggles to turn its automotive operations back to profit.

Kerkorian's lawyer, Terry Christensen, told Reuters in an interview late on Wednesday that he has no intention of trying to win control over GM by building up an equity stake in the company.

"This is just a passive investment," said Christensen, who has known Kerkorian for about 30 years. He stressed, though, that Kerkorian has "a tremendous instinct for assets" and was a big believer in building shareholder value.

"One of the things that he's always done through the years, whether he was an investor in a company or controlled the company, he always had in mind the shareholders sharing the same benefits that he had," Christensen said.

Kerkorian, the California-born son of Armenian immigrants, dropped out of school at a young age and is notoriously reclusive. A onetime prizefighter with the nickname "Rifle Right," he was Chrysler's biggest shareholder when he and former auto boss Lee Iaccoca tried to take it over in 1996.

A perennial fixture on Forbes' list of richest Americans, Kerkorian has an estimated net worth of $8.9 billion.

MAN WITH A PLAN

"I think he's a smart son-of-a-xxx," said a senior official at DaimlerChrysler's (DCX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) (DCGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) Chrysler division, when asked about Kerkorian's possible plans for the world's largest automaker.

"He doesn't do things frivolously. He has a plan."

It was DaimlerChrysler that used the term "frivolous" to dismiss the $1 billion lawsuit Kerkorian filed over the 1998 linkup between Germany's Daimler-Benz and Chrysler.

But Kerkorian, the biggest casino boss in Las Vegas history, is known for keeping abreast of every investment he makes and thinking through all his moves very carefully. He is not someone to be underestimated, even in his appeal of the court ruling that dismissed his DaimlerChrysler lawsuit.

As a developer, he has built some of the world's largest hotels on the Vegas strip, and as a majority owner of casino and hotel operator MGM Mirage Inc. (MGM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , he has built up a sprawling real estate empire. He presides over 11 casino resorts on the Vegas Strip alone and has made some of the biggest deals in the history of the gaming industry.

With the recently completed sale of Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Inc. to an investment group led by Sony Corp. (6758.T: Quote, Profile, Research) , Kerkorian will also go down in the annals of business as the man who sold the venerable film studio, not once, but three times.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2005 8:59 pm    Post subject: An alternate view from Vice Chairman Bob Lutz Reply with quote

An alternate view from GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz - amid on the recent doom and gloom on GM. Mr. Lutz has his own blog and actually talks about actual products from GM! This is very refreshing stuff:

http://fastlane.gmblogs.com/archives/2005/04/the_sun_keeps_c_1.html
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 25, 2005 9:15 am    Post subject: GM Recalls 2 Million Vehicles Reply with quote

This cannot be good for GM. The downgrade of their debt to "junk" is now imminent, IMHO.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

GM Recalls 2 Million Vehicles
Monday April 25, 11:08 am ET
By Michael Ellis


DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp. on Monday said it was recalling more than 2 million vehicles to fix a variety of potential safety defects, most of them on cars and trucks sold in the United States.

In the latest setback for the world's largest automaker, GM said the largest of the safety actions included nearly 1.5 million full-size pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles from the 2003 to 2005 model years with second-row seat belts that may be difficult to properly position across passengers' hips.

GM, which led the auto industry in U.S. recalls last year, said it voluntarily conducted that recall, although it had no reports that the belts caused or contributed to any injuries, and an analysis indicates a very low likelihood of problems occurring.

GM shares fell more than 2 percent Monday morning.

"Recalling these vehicles to provide improved routing of the lap belt is an important precautionary measure," Bob Lange, GM's director of structure and safety integration, said in a statement.

The recall includes some of GM's top-selling pickup trucks and SUVs, including the model year 2003 to 2005 Chevrolet Suburban, Chevrolet Tahoe, Hummer H2, Cadillac Escalade, GMC Yukon, GMC Yukon XL and the crew cab versions of the Chevrolet Silverado and the GMC Sierra.

The recall is one of the largest for GM since March last year when it recalled more than 4 million full-size pickup trucks to replace tailgate support cables that may corrode and fracture. That led to a record year in recalls for GM, which ran counter to claims it had improved the quality of its cars and trucks.

OTHER RECALLS

Last week, GM said it lost $1.1 billion in the first quarter, including a loss of $1.56 billion in North America alone, where the automaker has lost market share to Japanese competitors with a reputation for building quality vehicles.

GM also announced five other recalls on Monday. They include a recall of 332,202 of the 1500 Series Chevrolet Suburban and Yukon XL SUVs from the 2000 and 2001 model years for possible overheating of fuel pump wires that could lead to engine stalling, failure to start, a possible fuel leak and inaccurate fuel-level readings.

Also recalled were 142,585 1500 Series Silverado and Sierra pickups from the 1999-2002 model years and 2500 and 3500 Series pickups from the 2001-2004 model years with manual transmissions. The parking brakes could wear out, allowing the vehicles to move unexpectedly.

GM also recalled 69,037 of its 2005 model year Buick Lacrosse and Buick Allure sedans, which went on sale last year, for a potential problem with a brake part that could lead to brake loss. GM said it was aware of a low-speed crash, which did not result in any injuries, as a consequence of the potentially faulty brakes.

Also recalled were 39,078 2004-model year Buick Rendezvous and Pontiac Aztek SUVs, which could stall or fail to start due to a faulty ignition relay. GM said the problem resulted in one minor crash, but no injuries.

Lastly, GM recalled 22,115 Saturn L Series wagons from the 2002 to 2004 model years because they were built with center and passenger-side rear seat belt anchors that fail to comply with U.S. and Canadian safety standards.

GM will notify owners of the recalled vehicles and dealers will repair the parts for free.

Shares of GM were down 58 cents at $26.19 on the New York Stock Exchange.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2005 7:05 am    Post subject: GM's bonds going to junk? Reply with quote

GM's bonds going to junk?
-------------------------------------------------------------

GM euro bonds volatile after results
Tue Apr 19, 2005 08:50 AM ET

LONDON, April 19 (Reuters) - Euro-denominated bonds of General Motors (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) were volatile after the company posted a steep loss on Tuesday, heightening fears its credit ratings could be cut to junk.

Bond traders focused on the company's automotive cash flow which was weaker than expected.

GM said automotive operating cash flow for the quarter ended March 31, 2005 totalled a negative $3.0 billion, excluding European restructuring charges and settlement with Italy's Fiat.

GM previously said it expected the cash flow to be negative $2.0 billion from the previous target of positive $2.0 billion.

"It's not pretty, I'd say they were going to junk," said one trader.

GM's credit ratings have been teetering on the brink of junk status since its profit warning in mid-March.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 14, 2005 1:05 pm    Post subject: UAW Officials Unwilling to Reopen GM Pact Reply with quote

This cannot come at a worst time for GM. It will be interesting to see how the stock market slide affect the pension plan as well. Stock is now trading at a new 18-year low.
----------------------------------------------------------

Associated Press
UAW Officials Unwilling to Reopen GM Pact
Thursday April 14, 2:53 pm ET
By Dee-Ann Durbin, AP Auto Writer
UAW Officials Unwilling to Reopen Two-Year-Old Labor Contract With General Motors


DEARBORN, Mich. (AP) -- United Auto Workers officials indicated Thursday they'd be unwilling to reopen the union's two-year-old labor contract with General Motors Corp. to negotiate lower health care costs.

UAW President Ron Gettelfinger said after an annual meeting between GM and the union that the world's biggest automaker hasn't asked the union to reopen the contract. But he said the UAW believes it can work with GM to lower costs within the current framework of the contract.

John Buttermore, GM's vice president of labor relations, would not comment on the possibility of reopening the contract but said the amount GM can save by working within the contract is limited.

"Within the agreement, there's a lot we can do, but there's also a lot we need," Buttermore said. "We're looking at all options."

The contract last was negotiated in 2003 and expires in 2007.

Thursday's gathering of several hundred GM and UAW officials came at a difficult time for GM, which cited rising health care expenses when it slashed its 2005 earnings guidance by 80 percent last month.

GM shares fell $1.41 to $26.92 in afternoon trading Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange. That is more than $1 below their 52-week low of $27.98 which had been the lowest in more than a decade.

GM spent $5.2 billion last year to cover 1.1 million salaried and hourly employees, retirees and family members. GM has said the amount could grow to $5.8 billion this year.

Two top GM executives -- product development chief Bob Lutz and manufacturing chief Gary Cowger -- said recently the company should adopt a health care plan that provides the same benefits for salaried and hourly workers.

GM's salaried workers pay 27 percent of their total health care costs, while the company's UAW-covered hourly workers pay 7 percent, according to GM. The average U.S. corporate employee pays 32 percent of the cost of health care, GM said.

Merrill Lynch analyst John Casesa noted GM's health care costs when he downgraded the company's rating from neutral to sell last month. In a research note, Casesa said GM had $73 billion in retiree health care liability at the end of last year and a ratio of 2.4 retirees to every one active employee.

"Its liabilities for pensions and retiree health care costs have become an immense burden," Casesa said.

Gettelfinger has said the UAW recognizes that rising health care costs are a serious problem for automakers. But he also says the best solution is national health care reform, not further bargaining.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 04, 2005 6:53 pm    Post subject: GM turns to Plan B Reply with quote

More drama at GM - looks like the company is in crisis mode - can they turn the situation around? Probably best to sit and watch at this point in time!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GM turns to Plan B

No. 1 automaker gives CEO oversight of North America; shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic?
April 4, 2005: 5:57 PM EDT
By Chris Isidore, CNN/Money senior writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - General Motors Corp., trying to stem problems that have hit its stock price and share of the U.S. market, shook up top management Monday to give day-to-day responsibility of its core North American unit to CEO Rick Wagoner.

GM (Research) Vice Chairman Bob Lutz and Group Vice President Gary Cowger, who had been in charge of GM North America, will now focus full time on global responsibilities, the world's largest automaker announced.

"Given the challenges we face in North America, it makes sense for me to assume control of GM North America's day-to-day operations and shorten the lines of communication and decision-making," Wagoner said in a statement.

Shares of Dow component GM sank about 1 percent Monday. Overall, the shares are down about 40 percent from year-ago levels.

One analyst saw the moves as a sign that a recent spate of bad news has GM management jittery.

"I suspect that Wagoner is under a lot of pressure from the board to turn things around. To me it seems the company is in crisis mode," said David Healy, analyst with Burnham Securities.

Healy said that while GM has problems with its North American cost structure, he's not sure these moves are the way to improve results there.

"It's not a good sign when you transfer two of your most highly respected and able executives," he said.

Spate of bad news
GM announced last month that it would see a first-quarter loss of about $1.50 a share, rather than the 3-cent-a-share loss forecast by analysts at the time of the announcement. On Friday, its March figures put first-quarter U.S. sales down 5.2 percent compared with a year earlier, dropping its U.S. market share to 25.7 percent from 27 percent.

GM spokesman Brian Akre denied the management move is a result of crisis management and makes sense given the amount of attention Wagoner was already spending on North American operations.

"Any CEO of a large company is typically dealing with the pressing problems facing the company," he said. Akre said the reorganization of GM's European operations are going well, while Asia-Pacific and Latin America are also not the pressing problems for the company.

"We have four regions and three of our four regions are operating at target or ahead of targets," he said. "It's natural your focus is going to shift where the problems are."

Even with its global operations, GM's North American operations are the key unit for the company. In 2004 North America's auto operations accounted for 71 percent of auto revenue and 59 percent of company revenue overall.

Operating earnings from continuing operations in North America of $1.3 billion basically balanced out a slightly larger loss in Europe and allowed GM to post a narrow profit in its auto unit last year.

But those results will clearly not be repeated this year as the company admitted that continued downward pressure on car prices and rising costs in North America, especially health care expenses for both employees and retirees, are causing losses.

Some observers expressed doubts that Monday's changes will help the company's woes.

"Don't look for big results. GM's current leadership is responsible for the woes at its North American operations. This is like moving around the chairs on the deck of the Titanic," said Peter Morici, business professor at the University of Maryland. He said that GM needs to address what he called GM's "bloated bureaucracy."

General Motors, Ford Motor Co. (Research) and DaimlerChrysler (Research) have been forced to use large cash-back offers and below-market financing to boost sales as overseas competitors, notably Toyota Motor Corp (Research)., have taken a growing share of the U.S. market.

GM largely stemmed market share losses in the first four years of this decade but saw its share of U.S. auto sales drop to 27.5 percent last year from 28.3 percent in 2003.

The Detroit automakers have been battling the public perception that their vehicles lag in quality and higher costs as well.

And while GM has closed some of the quality and productivity gap compared with Japanese automakers' U.S. plants, its older plants can't shift production as rapidly to respond to shifting demand. On top of it all, stiff competition has forced prices lower while all the automakers are paying more for steel, oil and other commodities.

New responsibilities
Lutz will now focus on GM's global product development activities, while Cowger's new role will be in charge of global manufacturing and labor. Wagoner's statement said that the new roles for Lutz and Cowger were not less important than their previous responsibilities for North American operations.

"With the ongoing globalization of GM's product development organization, and the implementation of our global architecture strategy, Bob felt he needed to devote his efforts to product development full time, and I agreed," Wagoner said in the statement. "Bob's legacy at GM will be in our future cars and trucks. It makes sense for him to devote his full energies to that critical task."

Wagoner signaled he would be seeking changes in the cost structure and labor deals, particularly health care costs in the United States.

Chrysler Group was reportedly granted millions of dollars in health care cost savings last month in a deal with the United Auto Workers union.

"One of our biggest challenges is our lack of cost-competitiveness in the United States, which is due to our legacy costs, especially the ever-increasing burden of high health-care expenses," Wagoner said. "Addressing this challenge in a fair and equitable way requires close work with our union partners, in addition to our ongoing work with government and health-care providers. Gary is the ideal person to do this."

GM spokesman Akre would not discuss what changes the company would be seeking from the union other than to say, "There are negotiations ongoing with the UAW."

A spokesman for the union could not immediately be reached for comment.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2005 10:05 pm    Post subject: Top GM Exec in China Resigns Reply with quote

Further confirmation of the slowing of the Chinese automobile market. Given that supply is nearly twice of that of auto demand in China - you ain't seen nothing yet.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Associated Press
Report: Top GM Exec in China Resigns
Tuesday March 29, 10:06 pm ET
Report: Chief of General Motor's China Operations Resigns Amid Falling Sales


BEIJING (AP) -- General Motors Corp.'s top executive in China has left the company amid declining sales, The Asian Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.
Phil Murtaugh, 50, resigned after nearly five years as chairman and managing director of GM's China Group, the newspaper said, citing an unidentified person familiar with the matter.


People who answered the phone in GM's press office in Shanghai declined to comment.

Murtaugh oversaw explosive growth at GM's China operations and played a key role in the launch of Shanghai GM, the company's biggest mainland venture. He also was responsible for Taiwan.

GM shocked investors by warning that it would post a substantial loss in the first quarter of this year and by slashing its 2005 profit outlook to less than half earlier forecasts. It is threatened with a possible downgrade in its credit rating to junk-level status.

GM has pointed to China as a success story. But it has suffered a sudden drop in sales due to rising competition and efforts by the Chinese government to slow economic growth.
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 27, 2005 2:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="HenryTo"] There are now 2.5 retirees for every worker that is still currently working at GM.[/quote]

As go GM so goes the economy....but we will only have 1 worker for 1 retiree starting 2008 Laughing.

My thesis will play out - not to brag but they all ways do. Smile. I just have a knack for economics. And a knack for marrying the best wife in the world. She does get tired of me telling her what is going to happen before it does - it makes her uncomfortable. But it pays the bills Smile. Use the force!

Dubious
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 26, 2005 7:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fortune has a short article about GM in the latest issue. There's an interesting chart and blurb about how GM is now fully $20 less than its high in 1965 - fully 40 years ago.

Just a little bit south of $6 billion was spent on healthcare in 2004. There are now 2.5 retirees for every worker that is still currently working at GM.
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 26, 2005 1:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Short the stock....buy the bonds.

Shocked
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 26, 2005 12:52 am    Post subject: Motley Fool Take Reply with quote

Latest article on GM from the Motley Fool:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

GM: A Crumbling Rock?
By David Meier
March 24, 2005

After General Motors (NYSE: GM) backtracked on its commitments for the current year by saying it would turn free cash flow negative in 2005, fellow Fool contributor Stephen Simpson concluded his article wondering whether the worst was yet to come. Well, it now looks like things are indeed getting even worse.

This week, GM made two new announcements. First, the automaker plans to start cutting its salaried workforce. Second, GE (NYSE: GE) officially ended its short-term-loan program with GM, a deal that had let GM pay off suppliers early. The purpose of the program was to keep suppliers with enough working capital to maintain a steady flow of parts.

I think the cuts in salaried workforce signal two things. First, the company is posturing as it prepares for talks with the United Auto Workers union in April. Management has to begin looking for concessions from the largest part of its labor force to reduce expenses related to employee rolls and benefits. Cutting salaried workers shows that management is willing to spread the pain around. (But will management salaries and bonuses take a hit?)

Second, I think this move may signal the beginning of a reduction in the product line. GM presents its customers around the world with nine well-known brands and many other smaller ones, while Toyota (NYSE: TM) and Honda (NYSE: HMC) sport just two brands each. Although GM tries to create part commonality across its brands, it's terribly hard, since the styles and performance characteristics are very different. Thus, if GM wants to face the customer with a simpler marketing message and to increase efficiency in product development, cutting out the most unprofitable brands is a step in the right direction. The problem is that it may be too late, given that the competition continues to chip away at GM's market share, which fell from 28% in 2004 to 25% in February 2005, according to a Wall Street Journal article.

And although the GE news is not really new -- GE has already ended similar programs with Ford (NYSE: F) and Chrysler (NYSE: DCX) -- it does add additional strain to an already stressed situation. Automobile suppliers live on razor-thin margins and need their working capital up front to buy and work the raw materials into the components they provide. GMAC, the company's financing arm, is more than ready to step in and take over the program. But you have to wonder how thin the interest-rate spreads got for GE -- and its access to very low cost capital -- to make it exit the business. And would having GMAC step in really be a good use of capital?

As I was writing this piece, GM also announced it was in talks to sell a stake in GMAC's commercial mortgage business. According to The Wall Street Journal, the deal could raise up to $1 billion, which happens to be the outstanding balance that GM owes to GE. Although desperate times call for desperate measures, I think selling parts of the golden goose to provide liquidity for the clunker is not a value-enhancing proposition. My long-term track record doesn't compare with those of Mason Hawkins or Charles Brandes -- both have recently taken big stakes in GM -- but the automobile unit is a major drag on the profitable GMAC business. In an immensely competitive environment, there may not be enough time to turn things around.

Fool Contributor David Meier owns shares of GE, but he does not own any of the other companies mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2005 12:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Greg,

GM in talks to sell a stake in GMAC? Do you still have your sights on GM? Let me know... Very Happy

Thanks,

Henry
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