Gold

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 7:01 am Post subject:

Well Dec. has passed and those call options have vested. We've crossed the point of more gold in private hands than Central Banks. ETF money was supposed to be "sticky" --we'll see if a metal can become a bond.

link
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rffrydr · Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 7:48 am Post subject:

Our "gateway to recession" jobs print this morning, whacking the dollar--is also whacking gold.
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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 7:33 pm Post subject:

China launched a Gold ETF last night and we made a reach for that perfect "9."--that number where enough is enough.

We'll see if the dollar is still the currency that counts.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/IBD-0001-22091467.htm
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rffrydr · Posted: Sun Jan 13, 2008 1:43 pm Post subject:

Diedinthewool bug not so bullish medium-term:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0011e9f6-c05b-11dc-b0b7-0000779fd2ac.html

Bernanke's address front-loaded rate expecations but did not change the ultimate target of around 2.71 in the eurodollar market. On a real basis we are under the '91 rate structure.
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rffrydr · Posted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:02 am Post subject:

Gold is up disproportionately to its status mainly on SA mine closure. Assuming my naked emini call will be excercised have doubled up this morning.

The green light for commodity buying was given yesterday as global equity markets and risk seekers discovered that Monday’s risk aversion episode was fueled by losses at Societe Generale rather than genuine evidence of global recession. As a result, traders moved back to beliefs held in late 2007 that Chinese and Indian economic growth will never slow, weakness in the dollar will never end, and that gold prices of over $1,000/oz will not hurt physical demand.

Risks are quick move to 1420 in SP with FXI support and european hawkishness. With the dramatic pullout of the 2yr that same rational, limiting next week's Fed action, could and should work in reverse.
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reidbrownfield · Senior Poster Joined: 13 Jun 2005 Posts: 105

I got out of gold yesterday. I figured a 50% profit was good enough.

It may very well hit 1000. Maybe I should have held. Who ever knows.

Reid

HenryTo · Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2008 2:08 am Post subject:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23125587-23850,00.html

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2008 8:24 am Post subject:

They've "developed."
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rffrydr · Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 12:04 am Post subject:

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rffrydr · Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2008 3:13 pm Post subject:

Someone forgot to tell Jr. about the rally:

http://financialsense.com/metals/FSJG/2008/0331.html
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rffrydr · Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2008 7:59 pm Post subject:

I think Newmont's high was back in '03--at roughly $400 gold. This from another bug:

Wisdom From a Young Alan Greenspan

“In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all their bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.

This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists’ tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists’ antagonism toward the gold standard.”

– “Gold and Economic Freedom” – 1966 by Dr. Alan Greenspan

http://financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 6:52 am Post subject:

I'm looking at the Jrs. and drawing an opposite conclusion.

Global inflation

Published: March 28 2008 09:37 | Last updated: March 28 2008 14:26

The gold bugs have gone berserk and there is dark talk of central banks “printing money”. But the inconvenient truth is inflation in developed countries has not really gone up yet. Using consumer prices for the US, eurozone, Japan and the UK, weighted by output, inflation was 3.3 per cent year-on-year in February. That is only just above mid-2005 – and no one worried about replacing wallets with wheelbarrows then. Add on Brazil, Russia, India and China – the Bric nations – so that three-quarters of world output is included, and inflation was 4.1 per cent in February. That is a long, long way from the mid-teen levels seen as recently as the mid-1990s.

The main threat is from emerging economies. There, inflation indices are now too high, reflecting heavy weightings towards food and energy, where prices have soared. Bric inflation hit 8 per cent year-on-year last month, double the level at the start of 2007. State policy is partly to blame. Short-term real interest rates are negative in Russia and China, while the latter’s currency peg is unhelpful. But prices also reflect structural shortages. In physical commodities it will take time for capital investment to bring new supply on line. Meanwhile, it is conceivable that some foods might run out: this week China, India, Egypt and Vietnam restricted rice exports to boost domestic supply.
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 9:44 am Post subject:

Run it with the HUI. Bugs leading the bugging.

http://online.wsj.com/public/quotes/etf_charting.html?issue_type=ETF&&chartingPage=dynamic&symbol=gsg&Symb=gsg
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emergingwave · Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 7:44 am Post subject:

Is this an April Fool's joke?

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/04/02/a-1-million-wager-for-gold-bears/

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 8:31 pm Post subject:

A few words from an old silver baron marks the divide between hard and paper currency in a way you might not expect:

http://financialsense.com/editorials/morgan/2008/0403.html
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