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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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 Posted: Thu May 17, 2012 9:10 am Post subject: |
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The thing about the "grexit" is that they were all talking (resigned) about it back at Davos....and that was supposed to be a no-no. I'm looking for the IOUs to come out for awhile before they get behind the euro. But that is probably too late.
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue May 15, 2012 10:13 am Post subject: |
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It will also lead to substantial losses for Greek lenders, and workers...and any contract-based money flows inside the country because they are all priced in euros.
Not an easy threat.
IOU's the ex post facto devaluation?
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/05/15/1000971/greece-when-the-lights-go-out/
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Mon May 14, 2012 11:18 pm Post subject: |
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Bridgewater contemplates a Greek exit.
| Quote: | Contemplating a Greek Departure from the Eurozone: Precedent Setting for Other Things to Come
Europe is again entering into a critical period of severe uncertainty and distress, most notably the ongoing Greek political drama and the potential for the country to return to the drachma. A Greek redenomination (and inevitable default) will cause substantial realized losses for both the ECB and the EFSF, as opposed to today’s hypothetical losses. This shifting reality will shine a bright light on policymakers deciding not only who will take the losses and how, but importantly, how much future risk they are willing to endure to keep the monetary union otherwise intact. The precedents set in the next couple of weeks will likely prove critical. |
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Mon May 07, 2012 10:07 pm Post subject: |
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Bridgewater's ongoing comments on Greece.
| Quote: | The Unfolding of the Greek Test
The electoral consequences of the deleveraging hit hard over the weekend in Greece. As we’ve described previously (most recently in our May 2 Observations), Greece has been a test case for how European policy makers deal with the economic and political challenges of a member country in a self-reinforcing ugly deleveraging. The political and economic tensions in Greece (created by the drive for austerity, unsustainable sovereign debt levels and politically untenable economic conditions) may be worse in magnitude but are similar to those that exist in much of Europe. Though Greece is small, the way in which Greece is handled is likely to influence how these tensions are managed across the entire Eurozone. For a deleveraging to be well managed, it requires the right mix of 1) debt reduction, 2) austerity, 3) transferring wealth from the haves to the have-nots, and 4) debt monetization. After nearly three years of austerity, Greece does not seem to be on a viable path as economic conditions are even more depressed and the Greek economy is even more indebted than when austerity began. The most recent data point comes in the form of this weekend’s elections in Greece. Only months ago, the Greek government agreed to another round of austerity as a price for their second bailout package. Now, in an example of the political limits to austerity, the Greek electorate basically voted against the parties that made those commitments. The election has left the Greek parliament extremely fractionalized, potentially requiring another round of elections. The odds of Greece not delivering on (or renegotiating) their bailout commitments has increased materially, and a potential renegotiation of the second Greek bailout will likely raise larger questions. |
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Wed May 02, 2012 10:49 pm Post subject: |
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Bridgewater's latest comments on Greece.
| Quote: | The Greek Test:
Throughout the debt crisis, Greece has provided a test case for fiscal and monetary policy makers and the way we see things, a resolution to Greece’s deleveraging will provide yet another test. While the EU, ECB, and IMF have provided hundreds of billions of euros of support and Greece has already had a partial debt restructuring, Greece is more indebted and the Greek economy is more depressed than it was when the crisis started. As we have noted in previous Observations, in order for a deleveraging to be well managed, it requires the right mix of 1) debt reduction, 2) austerity, 3) transferring wealth from the haves to the have-nots, and 4) debt monetization. The current policies have produced what we refer to as an ugly deleveraging. Without any form of economic stimulation, however, the economic situation in Greece continues to worsen despite a meaningful debt restructuring and a reduction in debt service requirements. Greece’s economy is still contracting rapidly and it does not seem to us that Greece is on a path to restore competitiveness and create a viable fiscal situation within the Eurozone. Thus Greece’s plight and how policy makers and Greece’s electorate respond to ongoing conditions may very well lead to another test for policy makers. And the way they respond to this next inflection point in the Greek crisis could certainly impact the paths that are followed for Portugal, Ireland, and possibly Spain and Italy. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 11:44 am Post subject: |
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I've xxx plenty about this in terms of Goldman commenting on how flabbergasted I was at the time that this was going through. And if liitle ol' I saw it obviously the implications were well understood by europe. But that's the thing, we see what we want to see. There was a spirit in the air...history in the making. You think they'd let a "trade" stand in front of that?
Two wrongs can indeed become a right in the real world--if only as a punishment. 
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HenryTo
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 8:12 pm Post subject: |
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Bridgewater on the latest Greek bailout.
| Quote: | Implications of the Second Greek Bailout
The second €130 billion Greek bailout is a big front-loaded commitment by the EU to Greece, which will chew up a lot EU resources. More importantly, its differential treatment of private and public creditors potentially sets a precedent for dealing with future peripheral debt issues. The magnitude of the deal is probably sufficient to keep Greece out of the private capital markets for the next three years. But importantly, and unlike the previous bailouts, most of the money will be disbursed upfront (as opposed to being dripped out over time), leaving Greece less reliant on continued official support. The largest share of new bailout money for Greece is set to fund a private-sector debt restructuring, and there is some additional money to handle Greece’s financing needs over the next few years. A successful completion of the PSI would nearly eliminate Greek private sector debt rolls for the next couple of years and significantly reduce debt service as well. Greece in turn would commit to three more years of austerity and a more intrusive ECB/IMF/EU presence to ensure compliance. While the second bailout will provide some debt relief to Greece, further austerity will likely contribute to a continuation of extremely depressed economic conditions, which will further raise political and social pressures on the Greek government and increase the likelihood of the whole arrangement falling apart somewhere down the line. Providing more money to Greece won’t fix the fundamental imbalances (the lack of competitiveness and the large current account deficits). |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2012 7:48 pm Post subject: |
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Opah! Life today in Greece:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/19/magazine/the-way-greeks-live-now.html?pagewanted=1&hp
| Quote: | | “This is a country with 300 days of sunshine per year,” he began, proceeding into a rambling, fast-paced discourse, the central point of which was that in buying into the euro, Greece tried foolishly to mimic other countries and in so doing shifted away from its natural advantages and way of life. “Working in offices is good in countries where there is lots of rain,” he said. “Greeks don’t need to be in offices. |
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Jan 16, 2012 7:17 am Post subject: |
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....that came from a "tweet." 
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