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rffrydr
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 Posted: Thu Nov 03, 2011 8:55 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | ....Euro TMM propose they set up a page on a social networking site, invite all the population to join as "friends", and then post 2 status. One being "The Euro and Deflation", which you can 'like', and the other being "Lose your savings, return to your village to press olives and revert to only charging the equivilent of a fiver for a meal in your taverna", which you could also chose to 'like'. TMM reckon we could have a result by close of today. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Nov 03, 2011 6:20 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Europe shares rally on Greek govt collapse talk |
----Reuters
This is not how I'd imagined it a year ago...but two days ago.
Has it ever NOT been an "event-driven" market? We've just never had to imagine events outside Wall St. much before. Gulf War was a taste though.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Nov 01, 2011 3:51 pm Post subject: |
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So....here's the scenario: Pop goes down in friday's no-confidence vote, leaving care-taker government do the right thing--the Powers that Be make sure of that. He goes out the "hero" for trying to bring it to a vote after trying already to resign in front of Merkel more than once. Then the question: do the greeks demand a vote on their own extirpation? To late, they're in the process. Happy ending.
Arab Spring, the legacy grows.
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Sep 27, 2011 7:18 am Post subject: |
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political embarrassment. There would be maturity lengthening and reductions in
effective interest rates but no write-down of the principal value. From a substantive
economic perspective, a €1bn face value bond is worth only
≈€0.0000000000006470 today in NPV when converted in a zero coupon, one
thousand year maturity bond when the market interest rate is 5 percent, say, so
| Quote: | .... there would be no great burden left on Greece from a face-saving maintenance of
the face value of their claims by the countries guaranteeing the Greek Loan Facility
and the EFSF. Currently – before the proposed Greek debt swap – the average
maturity of traded Greek government bonds is around 7 years3. Lengthening the
average maturity to around 28.5 years (an extension of 21.5 years), again,
assuming a 5 percent yield to maturity, would yield a debt reduction of roughly 65%.
An 80% haircut would require lengthening the average maturity to 40 years (an
extension of 33 years). |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Sep 12, 2011 7:27 am Post subject: |
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They're making them pay through the electricity bill! Maybe a day late and a euro short sadly 
| Quote: | | Over the weekend, following an emergency meeting of the Greek government, Finance Minister Venizelos announced a fiscal plan that includes additional measures to meet the agreed targets in the programme, including reaching a primary surplus next year of over 1% of GDP. The main new measure announced is a one-off real estate tax to be applied in 2011-12 that will be charged through the electricity bill. Other new measures are: 1) cutting one month’s salary for all politicians on the public sector pay-roll; and 2) the submission of the 2012 budget to parliament by early October and approval by end-October (approximately one month ahead of schedule). |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Sep 09, 2011 7:36 am Post subject: |
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"Data released by the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) suggested that Greece imported 1.5 million euros worth of olive oil -- once a staple of its agricultural production -- from Germany in 2010" 
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Sep 08, 2011 6:32 am Post subject: |
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At the conference on Lake Como a notable change apparently from last year was open conversation of a Greek drop out. This was taboo last year.
Still think Greece stays but I sure am not going to directly bet on it.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2011 9:51 pm Post subject: |
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Bridgewater's latest take on the Greek debt deal:
| Quote: | The Implications of the Greece Deal Falling Apart
It seems to us that the situation in Greece is increasingly at risk of collapse. Over the next few weeks, Greece will try to nail down the €143bn (plus the use of €35bn in remaining bilateral loans) that have been earmarked for it by the EU and the IMF. To get the money, a lot of things need to come together: Greece needs to finalize its debt swap program, negotiate an acceptable collateral agreement with the Finns and convince the IMF that it is worthy of a passing grade on its quarterly troika report card. This will be increasingly difficult given Greece’s continued budgetary target misses and current Great Depression-like conditions (we estimate that the economy is now contracting at an annualized rate of 9.4%). A failure in any one negotiation increases the probability of failure in the others – and a failure in each is quite possible. This set of factors increases the odds of a broad debt collapse in the Greek sovereign and bank sector. |
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2011 11:32 pm Post subject: |
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They threw a coupla banks together as expected....and it's a party! Maybe the best sentiment we've got out of europe in a long time. The Italian auction w/out ECB this week should seal the deal for a awhile. Always a big "if."
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HenryTo
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HenryTo
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HenryTo
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diesel
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