Hang Seng

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 8:17 am Post subject: Hang Seng

Can't take out highs on 13000 party. Next up see if it can hold the gap.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=HHAJ07&o=&a=V%3A60&z=610x300&d=medium&b=bar&st=
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rffrydr · Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 10:46 pm Post subject:

Up 1000pts off its lows. Like the movie: A Better Tomorrow.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 11:51 am Post subject:

Cyclone closes trading: another "omen"?
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 6:44 am Post subject:

Doesn't get any better than last night:

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=HSI%20H8-HKF
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Mar 11, 2008 6:30 am Post subject:

Yesterday's key reversal holds. Two runs on jan lows fail to close index down.

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=HSI%20H8-HKF&o=&a=V%3A15&z=610x300&d=medium&b=bar&st=
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HenryTo · Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2007 10:51 am Post subject:

Still no panic in HK yet, from what I can gather.

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2007 8:21 am Post subject:

Things starting to hurt over there:

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-21035622.htm
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HenryTo · Posted: Sun Nov 04, 2007 7:35 pm Post subject:

Thanks for the article. This could be the trigger for a correction in the Hang Seng Index.

Mortage REITs are down over 40% on a YTD basis but that is still not as severe as past declines. Even during 2005 - a mediocre (but still positive) year for stocks and REITs in general - mortgage REITs were down 23% for the year, and that is with a near 10% dividend yield as well.

During the last REIT bear market, mortgage REITS declined 29% and 33% in 1998 and 1999, respectively, for a total decline of 52% (1 - 0.71 x 0.67) during those two calendar years, and we didn't even look at the spike downs in between. A similar decline this time around would mean that there is still a potential downside of 20% from current levels - but of course, this could be a long affair so we could see some stablization here, but my guess is that it won't until the Fed steps in and cuts the Fed Funds rate again.

rffrydr · Posted: Sun Nov 04, 2007 7:19 pm Post subject:

Great Wall gets in the way:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4b3556dc-8b01-11dc-95f7-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
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rffrydr · Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 6:16 am Post subject:

Y'mean this isn't the US stockmarket? Shocked

At this point stocks have become a commodity: indexed, packaged and wrapped up in a dollar bow. HS will be a conduit to "real world markets" and, as authorities envision, eventually pull to real world "sky-high" evaluations. M&A etc. on chinese stocks has always been done basis HS prices. Now it trades as if the world were going mainland--it will be the other way around. No more 5% floats on 100 choices.

And truely vulverable to OIL.

In the West, I'm looking for stabilization in the Financials and residential mortgage area in particular (with catch-up weakness in the commerical side) and a sharper discrimination as to the COSTs of being a commoditiy producer.

Much hinges on the dollar. Euro inflation report threw a spanner into "Sell the Fact" Fed scenario. Have no direct trades on this except holding puts on Russell in lieu of Dow.
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HenryTo · Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 10:04 am Post subject:

rffrydr: How does that align with your views of the US stock market?

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Oct 29, 2007 11:10 pm Post subject:

It's coming down on Thursday Wink

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HenryTo · Posted: Mon Oct 29, 2007 7:50 pm Post subject:

As long as the Chinese markets hold (there is no reason to believe it's going to come down tomorrow), and as long as the Fed follows the script and cuts by 25 bps this Wednesday and another 25 bps on December 11th, then this could last awhile yet.

Note: According to the book Microtrends, HK citizens are the second most optimistic bunch in the world today, behind the Vietnamese. If any bubble forms in the world today, it will be in Hong Kong.

nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 1865 Location: TX

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Oct 29, 2007 8:06 am Post subject:

Yuan rises big, in a small way:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJRdZS_2FxtM&refer=home
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HenryTo · Posted: Mon Oct 29, 2007 1:20 am Post subject:

Another new high in the Hang Seng as investors anticipate more rate cuts from the Fed, and consequently, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. This is not going to end well:

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/10/29/business/AS-FIN-MKT-Hong-Kong-Markets.php