Hang Seng

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 8:17 am Post subject: Hang Seng

Can't take out highs on 13000 party. Next up see if it can hold the gap.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=HHAJ07&o=&a=V%3A60&z=610x300&d=medium&b=bar&st=
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Feb 11, 2010 4:16 pm Post subject:

[img]http://www.thestreet.com/files/tsc/common/images/storyimages/0211_ComparisonChina.html[/img]
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Mar 20, 2009 7:50 am Post subject:

Tempering the bank rally with sentiments like these:

We recommend selling Standard Chartered following the recent
market rally – the stock has increased by 52% since FY results on 3rd
March leaving the stock trading on 1.7x 2009E TNAV. We believe that this
premium valuation is at risk given the slowdown in Asia. Four of Standard’s
main operating economies (Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea and Taiwan)
actually saw GDP fall in Q4 08. Against this backdrop, we find it difficult to
see revenue growth in 2009. Wholesale has been a key driver of the group
and in particular note that ALM, corporate finance and rates accounted for
67% of wholesale revenue growth in 2008 and 56% of group revenue
growth.
While wholesale has had a strong start to the year, we continue to
question the sustainability of revenues from these business lines through
2009 and see yoy revenues flat at best. What’s more we see a risk that the
consumer business is at best break even through further revenue pressure
and higher impairments - note that Hong Kong unemployment increased to
5.0% in the 3 months to February from 4.6% in 3 months to January. Given
this risk, we think that a 1.7x TNAV multiple is too high for a predominantly
wholesale business.
[/quote]

--alphaville
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Mar 16, 2009 6:48 am Post subject:

A familiar chorus in that china freemarket tune:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abHYoGM1HhPo&refer=home
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Mar 11, 2009 7:03 am Post subject:

UP 333 on the futures. --That's its own followthrough.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Mar 05, 2009 9:43 am Post subject:

Hong Kong January rents fell 30% y/y.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 10:46 pm Post subject:

Up 1000pts off its lows. Like the movie: A Better Tomorrow.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 11:51 am Post subject:

Cyclone closes trading: another "omen"?
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 6:44 am Post subject:

Doesn't get any better than last night:

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=HSI%20H8-HKF
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Mar 11, 2008 6:30 am Post subject:

Yesterday's key reversal holds. Two runs on jan lows fail to close index down.

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=HSI%20H8-HKF&o=&a=V%3A15&z=610x300&d=medium&b=bar&st=
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2007 10:51 am Post subject:

Still no panic in HK yet, from what I can gather.

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2007 8:21 am Post subject:

Things starting to hurt over there:

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-21035622.htm
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Sun Nov 04, 2007 7:35 pm Post subject:

Thanks for the article. This could be the trigger for a correction in the Hang Seng Index.

Mortage REITs are down over 40% on a YTD basis but that is still not as severe as past declines. Even during 2005 - a mediocre (but still positive) year for stocks and REITs in general - mortgage REITs were down 23% for the year, and that is with a near 10% dividend yield as well.

During the last REIT bear market, mortgage REITS declined 29% and 33% in 1998 and 1999, respectively, for a total decline of 52% (1 - 0.71 x 0.67) during those two calendar years, and we didn't even look at the spike downs in between. A similar decline this time around would mean that there is still a potential downside of 20% from current levels - but of course, this could be a long affair so we could see some stablization here, but my guess is that it won't until the Fed steps in and cuts the Fed Funds rate again.

rffrydr · Posted: Sun Nov 04, 2007 7:19 pm Post subject:

Great Wall gets in the way:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4b3556dc-8b01-11dc-95f7-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 6:16 am Post subject:

Y'mean this isn't the US stockmarket? Shocked

At this point stocks have become a commodity: indexed, packaged and wrapped up in a dollar bow. HS will be a conduit to "real world markets" and, as authorities envision, eventually pull to real world "sky-high" evaluations. M&A etc. on chinese stocks has always been done basis HS prices. Now it trades as if the world were going mainland--it will be the other way around. No more 5% floats on 100 choices.

And truely vulverable to OIL.

In the West, I'm looking for stabilization in the Financials and residential mortgage area in particular (with catch-up weakness in the commerical side) and a sharper discrimination as to the COSTs of being a commoditiy producer.

Much hinges on the dollar. Euro inflation report threw a spanner into "Sell the Fact" Fed scenario. Have no direct trades on this except holding puts on Russell in lieu of Dow.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 10:04 am Post subject:

rffrydr: How does that align with your views of the US stock market?