HDI-Hogs get Slaughtered

rffrydr · Posted: Tue May 30, 2006 10:32 pm Post subject: HDI-Hogs get Slaughtered

Time to short nostalgia, the stock of a generation (of men)?

I remember when HDI's market cap surpassed GM. It was crazy then and maybe even crazy now. Last week saw the Millionth addition to the Harley "team." Emergency rooms are stuffed with over-50 motoring mishaps.

After an announcement into India here's China:

" The new Beijing dealership, one of 1,300 globally, is located outside the eastern edge of the city's Fourth Ring Road. The latest addition opened Saturday, offering its 2006 Fat Boy, Heritage Softail Classic, V-Rod, Electra Glide and Road King models for sale. Prices start at $12,500 and rise to more than $37,500.

The 2005 average income of urban residents in the capital, one of the wealthiest cities in the country, was approximately $2,200, according to Chinese statistics."

http://www.wpherald.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20060410-124416-5303r

Is this growth or is this desperation? WMT, DIS, GM got's nothing on Harley-Davidson. It's a straight line up for a decade. More to come?

It certainly symbolizes conspicuous consumption: "Fat Boy." Isn't that the atomic bomb we dropped on Japan? And there IS a need for that in the fringe 3rd world boom. Look how dogs have found a place in China upper middle class DESPITE the culture (this also goes for, litterally, Orange County houses). Chinese also buy Ferraris and park them. A lorified, ol'glory motorcycle, in a land of motorcycles?????

SEC inquiry in summer 05 marks top. Doing a Krispy Kreme with inventory??? Or just, the last retailer for Easy Rider.

HenryTo · Posted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 12:33 am Post subject:

HDI continues to turn in descent numbers. Stock up a respectable 1.83% yesterday and nearly 10% since the end of May.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Harley earnings meet analysts' estimate
Monday July 17, 5:36 pm ET

Harley-Davidson Inc. met analysts' consensus earnings estimate for the second quarter on a small increase in revenue.
The Milwaukee-based motorcycle manufacturer reported net income of $243.4 million, or 91 cents per share, in the second quarter. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call expected 91 cents per share on average. Net income was up 2.5 percent compared with $237.4 million, or 84 cents per share, the year before.

Net revenue grew just 3.3 percent to $1.38 billion from $1.33 billion.

Harley-Davidson said its worldwide dealer network sold more than 125,000 motorcycles during the second quarter, an increase of 10 percent compared with the same period last year, said Jim Ziemer, president and chief executive officer. Sales in the United States increased 8.1 percent, while international sales jumped 17.3 percent.

Motorcycle shipments hit 79,796 in the quarter, topping the firm's own forecast for second-quarter shipments of 78,000 motorcycles by 2.3 percent. Harley-Davidson expects to ship 97,000 motorbikes in the third quarter, including 12,500 units produced in the second quarter to prepare for a new-model introduction, Ziemer said.

Harley-Davidson Inc. said July 14 that it will introduce a new engine as part of its lineup for 2007, which includes four new models. The Twin Cam 96, an all-new Big Twin engine, will power all models in the Harley-Davidson Dyna, Softail and Touring product families.

The company still expects to hit its shipment target of a range of 348,000 to 352,000 units in 2006.

For the six months ended June 30, net income was $478 million, or $1.77 percent, up 2.9 percent compared with $464.6 million, or $1.62 per share, the year before. Net revenue increased $3.6 percent to $2.66 billion from $2.57 billion.

Ziemer said worldwide retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles are expected to support an increase in shipments in the range of 5 percent to 9 percent in 2006, and annual earnings per share growth of 11 percent to 17 percent. In 2005, the company shipped 329,017 units and posted earnings of $3.41 per share.

Shares of Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HDI - News) closed up 94 cents at $52.31 Monday.

Published July 17, 2006 by The Business Journal

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 6:55 pm Post subject:

Yes, Vietnam can't get enough! And France.... but the generation fades and the empire crumbles.

Have no position but can't believe this doesn't go the way of the Hummer. Don't know what the trigger will look like. Saw a new hog "gang" today, the "messengers," biking for jesus.

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:17 pm Post subject:

Harley (HOG) now trying to break its all-time high:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HOG&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

reidbrownfield · Senior Poster Joined: 13 Jun 2005 Posts: 105

I don't think rffrydr was in Sturgis. The Empire is certainly not crumbling. Maybe rumbling. I know that I had to have a new 2007 Electra Glide after seeing them in the Black Hills. My only question is will the rate of growth slow at some point in the future. The next asian wave may come from China. However, HDI has proven it is a survivor.

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:07 am Post subject:

Yeah, rumble on.

The good news is I have no position. I think Vietnam with the all things american is not going to be replicated in China. The Lexus yes, Hog no. We'll see.

Know someone who "stole" one for 8K, less than half, on account of the original holder's mortgage. A story soon to be repeated methinks. The patriotic "cacooning" trend will only get stronger though.
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rffrydr · Posted: Fri Sep 07, 2007 6:46 am Post subject:

Taking it's own sweet time but better late than never:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=abceTzUdd9gw&refer=news

Sell rallies? Or germany and asia save the day?

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2007 7:28 am Post subject:

Shipments at bottom of lowered expectations:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119279472697864773.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
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rffrydr · Posted: Mon Dec 24, 2007 2:34 pm Post subject:

I'm bearish overall but wouldn't want to be short now:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HOG&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p37708976103

Nice lower low well within the BB and MACD crossover.
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reidbrownfield · Senior Poster Joined: 13 Jun 2005 Posts: 105

Good thing I got my tickets ordered for the 105th anniversary party. They are almost sold out. The event isn't until August 2008. They may be having a rough patch here as a result of the overall economy. However, I would not bet against this great American icon. The demand is still very strong for all products HD. Keep in mind this is the number one requested tatoo in the world. If people want to put Harley-Davidson permanently on their body, this company is not going south. The stock may fluctuate, however, I would not bet, long term, against Harley.

Reid

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2007 8:28 pm Post subject:

Number one tatoo in the world!? That's gotta be a top.

True, it's next to the last thing we really have. It'll go pried out of their dead cold fingers. I've got some Corvette bonds.

RB, you probably don't look at the classified with your new Electra Glide but if you notice anything sudden-like let us know. They're all over Hollywood--but now that they've finally gotton around to making a movie... movies are like tatoos: they're monuments.
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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 9:21 am Post subject:

"Reaching out" to India.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Two-wheelers/Harley_Davidson_to_drive_into_India/articleshow/2663014.cms

Should be an interest test of the limits of "brand."
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rffrydr · Posted: Sun Feb 10, 2008 8:54 pm Post subject:

Well we can now look back and say that vietnam was Harley's vietnam.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HOG&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p55266638266

Took no part in the last "saving" rally east. I wonder for what else the asian bell tolls?
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 4:22 pm Post subject:

Monuments are an ENDING:

http://blog.pentagram.com/2008/07/new-work-harleydavidson-museum-2.php
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