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gregf
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 Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 10:12 am Post subject: Housing |
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http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080930/home_prices.html
S&P: Home prices post 16 pct. annual drop in July
Tuesday September 30, 9:35 am ET
Closely watched housing index shows home prices dropped at fastest annual rate ever in July
NEW YORK (AP) -- A closely watched index shows home prices tumbling by the sharpest annual rate ever in July, but the rate of decline is slowing.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city housing index released Tuesday fell a record 16.3 percent in July from the year-ago period, the largest drop since its inception in 2000. The 10-city index plunged 17.5 percent, its biggest decline in its 21-year history.
Home values in all 20 cities fell year-over-year, with Las Vegas prices plunging the most at nearly 30 percent.
However, the pace of declines has slowed over the last three months, but there is still no sign of a bottom, one of the index creators said.
Here's the article from S&P
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_093042.pdf |
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Apr 05, 2012 7:34 am Post subject: |
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This has been the setup for some time: now that it's happening we're coming to realize some things. Where it counts most, California, it doesn't apply. BAC has introduced the "landlord" model. Foreclosures are skewed towards super-commute communities e.g. Stockton, San Berdo. Current owners won't "price-match." In other words, a home is not entirely the same as a "product."
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2012 9:06 pm Post subject: |
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Falling Inventory, Rising Prices
By Roger Arnold | Apr 02, 2012 | 5:27 PM EDT
Asking prices for residential real estate are rising this spring as
fewer sellers are putting their properties on the market.
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/us/
| Quote: | Rising asking prices heading into the spring market is normal;
declining inventory of properties being offered for sale is not.
Asking prices did not rise in the spring markets of 2007, 8, and 9;
but did in 2010, and 11. It's good to see some normality and rhythm
coming back to the markets as far asking prices go but asking prices
are not sales prices and because of this very little weight as an
indication of anything substantial should be placed on them. The
inventory numbers declining is a bit of a conundrum; and I'm not sure
what to make of it yet. I've been expecting the opposite; for
inventories of for-sale residential properties to rise as underwater
home owners decided to sell before the IRS begins to tax forgiven
mortgage debt as income. It is possible that underwater mortgagors
simply are not aware of the law and the financial risks they are
taking by not putting their properties on the markets. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Mar 28, 2012 8:01 am Post subject: |
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Location, location, location. "The bidding wars seen in such places as Seattle aren’t found everywhere. In metropolitan areas including Atlanta and California’s Riverside and San Bernardino counties, housing remains weak as high unemployment and falling prices deter first-time and move-up homebuyers."
If they'd included S. Dakota they coulda run this story a year back.
40 long months of 1/2 million starts. It's truly remarkable what the economy has achieved without our best crutch.
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat Mar 24, 2012 8:48 am Post subject: |
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Most don't realize just how lagging Case-Schiller, it's a moving average ON TOP OF only reported closing--which were of course priced six-weeks earlier.
And the shadow inventory, though very real, is completely and totally different than anything Wall St. can wrap its brain around: most of that is stranded; most all of it has occupants; much of it is dilapidated and covered by the boom.
On the downside, banks don't want to mortage at 4%...period.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Fri Mar 23, 2012 9:47 am Post subject: |
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Morningstar agrees that US housing has bottomed.
http://www.morningstar.com/Cover/videoCenter.aspx?id=541496
| Quote: | Almost everything else is off the bottom, and I think we're still very, very close to the bottom on pricing, and if you look at Case-Shiller data, we're down 30% or more from the peak still, and even if you look year-over-year, depending on which cities and metrics you use, you are down 2% to 4%, December over December. So we really haven't seen a lot of improvement.
[But] if you look at some of the metrics that look a little bit more at the monthly data, we're beginning to see the turn. Case-Shiller is a moving average. So it takes a little longer to shore up there, but some of the government data from the mortgage agencies are looking up a little bit, and even the National Association of Realtors report that we got this morning, it reports a median home price, which has all sorts of statistical problems with it, but after being down for several months, it's now up 0.3% year-over-year. So I think we're beginning to see the turn in pricing, which I think is important. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Mar 21, 2012 9:29 pm Post subject: |
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Latino population has declined as construction labor has headed back to gateway cities--just as Ferrel goes with "Casa de mi Padre."
I think the superbarrio cycle is still in tact however.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Wed Mar 21, 2012 9:23 pm Post subject: |
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Bridgewater on US housing.
| Quote: | The Improvement in Housing Eases One of the Big Constraints on Growth
After years of being a drag on US growth, there is increasing clarity that housing is now expanding and will be a reasonable positive for growth this year. In recent months we have seen the first sparks of life in the US housing/mortgage market in about five years and the improvement in housing stats off lows is now fairly pervasive, although the magnitude is still small: existing home sales are rising modestly, the leading pending sales numbers have risen even more rapidly, new housing starts are up a tick, and the National Association of Home Builders’ survey of industry expectations has improved even more. Mortgage refinancing is strong, and net new housing-related credit growth is up slightly. This improvement is being driven by high levels of home affordability (i.e., low prices and secularly low interest rates), declining (if still high) shadow inventories and, increasingly, pressure from price increases in the rental market.
To be clear, the improvement in the housing stats so far is still small, and the direct impact of housing on growth through new construction will not be large because housing construction now makes up less than 2.5% of GDP. Even annualized growth rates of 10 - 15% (which look to have taken place in the fourth quarter) would only add about 0.3% to GDP growth. The indirect effects of housing on the economy from related spending (e.g., furniture, refinancing and the impact on wealth) could potentially be larger, but still remain limited, particularly because prices have not turned up yet and because household balance sheets remain impaired. Nonetheless, for the first time in many years (other than the short burst associated with government programs), housing looks to be a positive influence on growth rather than a drag. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Mar 16, 2012 8:26 am Post subject: |
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"Versailles"!....some things never change in America. We too were chinese fawning on all things "civilized." And a coat-of-arms first among them.
Sea World designed aquarium!
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HenryTo
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:48 pm Post subject: |
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This ignores an across-the-board 4% "re-peg"--the politics are there this time. Otherwise, just more fear "divergence":
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 8:18 pm Post subject: |
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Bridgewater on the impact of lower Treasury rates and equity prices on U.S. housing prices:
| Quote: | | While Treasury rates have fallen from about 3.5% early in the year to 2.2% now, the impact on housing and therefore households is likely to be modest. The refinancing channel is unlikely to be significant because mortgage rates have fallen a lot less than Treasuries, and for most eligible borrowers, rates are not that much lower than they were last year. Our estimated impact on growth from the decline in rates is less than 0.2%. The flow-through to higher demand for houses and therefore higher prices is also likely to be muted by the decline in equity prices (which reduces available down payments) and the broader deterioration in economic conditions. Early evidence suggests that demand for housing has weakened over the last two months, and on net, we still expect home prices to fall modestly going forward, as demand for houses will likely remain weak while oversupply remains substantial. While mortgage rates and housing more broadly are not the only way that lower Treasury rates flow through to growth, they represent a significant channel that will likely benefit much less than usual from the drop in rates. |
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