MarketThoughts.com Home Page
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups  StatisticsStatistics   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

how to value a stock?

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    MarketThoughts.com Forum Index -> Individual Stocks
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author how to value a stock?
msurkan
Newbie
Newbie


Joined: 09 Aug 2005
Posts: 4

PostPosted: Wed Aug 10, 2005 10:14 am    Post subject: how to value a stock? Reply with quote

Does anyone have any general tips on estimating proper valuations for stocks? In particular, I would like to find a way to calculate what the earnings per share, and revenue, would need to be for a given stock price to be justified. If it turns out, for example, that a given firm would have to be bigger than the entire industry it is in for it's stock price to make sense, then that would indicate the stock was over-valued.

Are there any on-line resources that already show these types of stock value calculations?

Thanks,
Mikhail
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Post new topic   Reply to topic    MarketThoughts.com Forum Index -> Individual Stocks
Author how to value a stock? Replies
nodoodahs
Moderator
Moderator


Joined: 06 May 2005
Posts: 2408

PostPosted: Wed Aug 10, 2005 11:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In a perpetual growth model, the discount rate and the growth rate form the denominator. Hence, the closer the discount rate and growth rate are, the higher the justified PE ratio is.

When they are equal, a PE ratio of infinity is suggested ....

When the growth rate to infinity is higher than the discount rate, you have a negative denominator and a negative PE justified, which means basically that the formula doesn't make sense in that instance.

These calculators are where two things happen.

First, rational investors use these to make cautious, real-life estimations of what they think a stock is worth. Some of us will even chose to buy only if the PE is well below our targets ...

Second, Wall Street analysts will plug different growth and discount numbers into these calculators to come up with rationalizations behind the "buy" recommendation that their managers tell them they need to make ...
_________________
I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
msurkan
Newbie
Newbie


Joined: 09 Aug 2005
Posts: 4

PostPosted: Wed Aug 10, 2005 11:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

nodoodahs wrote:
http://www.moneychimp.com/articles/valuation/stockvalue.htm

Thanks so much for the link to this valuation calculator! It's really an eye-opener. Amazingly, it seems to infer that valuations of GOOG, or other high flying stocks, might make sense if you do assume 100% growth year, over year, for a decade or so.

I can't quite figure out the discount rate piece of the calculator though. It complains that the estimated growth rate must be lower than the discount. But that doesn't make sense. With many of these high-flying stocks investors clearly think they will have far higher growth rates than the general index.

Cheers,
Mikhail
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
nodoodahs
Moderator
Moderator


Joined: 06 May 2005
Posts: 2408

PostPosted: Wed Aug 10, 2005 10:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Try this ...

http://www.moneychimp.com/articles/valuation/stockvalue.htm

Off-color joke about being worth what some people pay was typed and deleted. Email or PM me for joke.
_________________
I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message

Please log in to view without the ad banners
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    MarketThoughts.com Forum Index -> Individual Stocks All times are GMT - 6 Hours
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


|Mp3| Powered by phpBB