International Short

[TRS]

Need to add an international short position, and have narrowed it down to
Mexico or Spain. Looking for any fundamental opinions not technical that might help seperate these 2 countries.

TIA

[rffrydr]

IMHO: I'm long a smallish position EEM puts which gives (or gets) you the US perception of foreign prices. China Shanghai has no fundamentals at this point other than price. Brazil comes with the adage: "The Country of the Future and Always will Be." Japan seem perpetually stopped on the starting block (with big demographics kicking in). Spain imagines itself the new Singapore for what's becoming a platform European economy. Having been to Zaragoza I'd say they just might pull it off (baring a northwest passage by the Russians). Attempts to diversify out of property (and locality) are admirable but wonders if their heart is in it. The latinamerican immigration issue is a problem with the EU but probably helps themselves--and, like Chile, one of the few modern nations to emerge from Dictatorship. India may be close to exhuasting it's near-term potential--infrastructure long it's achilles heel, even IT now showing its problems.

Liquidity is always an issue when going abroad--as well as index balance. Noika WAS Norway. The DAX now is heavy on oil. Austria means banks in Eastern Europe. Even the FTSE, as an index, is dominated by a small number of stocks.

You could always just follow the Hedge Funds and spread the SP vs. Russell, cash balanced or bearish bias. Short bulk shipping (trans looks heavy) Watch out individual issues as buyouts could quickly put you in the poorhouse.
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