| Author |
Irish Tiger Replies |
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
 Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2011 8:19 am Post subject: |
 |
|
Best performing bond market in the world this year. 
While the investment world ignores it best template for what to what NOT to buy in europe. 
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Thu Jun 30, 2011 10:28 am Post subject: |
|
|
I'll be damned, that MF board got the rescission. The British Post Office contract seems to be worth something to country of 5M. Here's where you can spend your savings:
http://slickdeals.net/forums/showthread.php?sduid=0&t=3067313
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Fri Jun 10, 2011 10:15 am Post subject: |
|
|
I first came to the MF Banking Board to investigate buying these securities--and ended up shorting them. It was patently obvious that Ireland would restructure with two banks and that equity, however emaciated, would be maintained. Equally obvious was that any and every grab at the bondholders would be made. ECB prevented that (so far) so the attack on the subordinated proved to be all the more vindictive. Sadly the widows and pensioners who will be "cashed out" at 10% without the equity exchange will make for some good bad press. The course of which will expose the capital hierarchy flipped on its head and start rumbling further along in europe. Looking to buy Santander PFDs again if this happens but, for now, the press, and now BBC special originates here:
http://boards.fool.co.uk/bkir-lme-implications-for-other-debt-instruments-12280077.aspx?sort=postdate
| Quote: | | We're all furious, of course, but also falling over each other's heels to accept the equity offering -- and this is no surprise; this is what "prisoner's dilemmas" do to people; that's why "game theory" is so hot in MBA programs: it really has discovered a kind of short-circuit in human psychology. |
Now that we have a price the exchange hedging short interest should dissipate and begin the climb back to a more normal discount of an $E11B book on 28B shares; returning deposits can notch that up in a hurry. State, and currrent bondholders, can now pick up such assets as interbank margin cash and life insurance biz (without Basel III cap restrictions) at 20cent on a buck and one of the great modern bank robberies will have been achieved. Unless....
Banker outcry, public shame, hedgie litigation and, the biggie, a failed Ireland can all spin this out of control. But none of those are probably gonna happen. Stay tuned.
My 2012/13 scenario has turned into a 2014/15 holding period....newwwbbbbbieeeee. 
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2011 12:03 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Ireland seems to be the new role-model with it's "tyranny of the majority" reverse capital grabs, LME and SLOs, and now rejecting the french putsch on tax harmonization. They also, praise their ways, are integrating their financial backstop structures to the general public: NAMA will cover 20% of your property fall should your properties' value fall by that much. How hard would that be here? What kind of boost would that give to an american public now feeling thrown to the banksters?!
| Quote: | DUBLIN (Dow Jones)--Irish consumers were feeling slightly more confident last month as fears for "an economic apocalypse" in Ireland continue to fade, KBC Bank Ireland and the Economic and Social Research Institute said Wednesday.
Their survey of consumer sentiment rose to 59.4 in May from 57.9 in the previous month, as consumers felt more secure about the prospects for their jobs amid Ireland's debt crisis even as their concerns about their household finances continue.
"These results suggest that fears of an economic apocalypse that became widespread late last year are slowly but surely fading as 2011 progresses," KBC Ireland Chief Economist Austin Hughes said.
"Consumers appear to be drawing comfort from the absence of regular negative surprises that was a feature of the Irish economy," he said.
Since last summer Irish consumers have been hit by a series of unprecedented shocks. In November, the Irish authorities were forced to accept EUR67.5 billion in bailout loans from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund after markets became spooked at the huge costs to the government of rescuing Irish banks.
A tough austerity budget followed in December and, in March, Irish central bank stress tests showed the banks may swallow a total of EUR70.3 billion in government aid to cover their huge property loan losses.
Hughes said that rise in consumer prices in recent months may have led to consumers feeling more downbeat in May about the outlook for their finances. |
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Sun May 15, 2011 7:54 am Post subject: |
|
|
Still wondering if the individual investor (non-professional) might make it through the 2013 Irish debt restructuring (if any) unscathed. This from the fine print in the AIB sub-debt coercion:
United Kingdom
The communication of this announcement, the Tender and Consent Memorandum and any other documents or materials relating to the Invitations is not being made and such documents and/or materials have not been approved by an authorised person for the purposes of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Accordingly, such documents and/or materials are not being distributed to, and must not be passed on to, the general public in the United Kingdom. The communication of such documents and/or materials as a financial promotion is only being made to persons within the United Kingdom falling within the definition of investment professionals (as defined in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the Order)) or within Article 43(2) of the Order, or to other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated.
If they can make it through AIB......
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Tue May 03, 2011 9:23 am Post subject: |
|
|
I'm gonna say that projected e4B is closer to e8B....unless this undying spat over corporate tax rate goes to the mat we've past the worst here. Deposits will begin to flow back, locals first, and by June we'll be looking at much better ratios--and, perhaps, even an economy.
http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/publications/reports/201...
At pag. 20 you can read the following:
10 billion of the 24 billion will be provided from the National Pensions Reserve
Fund (NPRF) and thereby has no impact on the Exchequer position. This was already
included in the budgetary forecasts published in December 2010.
Of the remaining 14 billion that is required, a substantial element will come from the
Exchequer but there are a number of mitigating factors - such as burden sharing and
capital generating asset disposals - which will help reduce the Exchequer funding
requirement and alleviate the burden on the domestic taxpayer. For the purpose of the
fiscal and debt projections contained in this Update, it is assumed that Exchequer
funding in the order of 10 billion will be required. However, the actual amount to be
sourced from the Exchequer will become clearer in the coming months in the context
of the amount raised from the mitigating factors.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2011 7:37 am Post subject: |
|
|
There go the secondaries....next up?
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2011/0425/1224295410289.html
Two NY hedge funds are bringing suit as this "SOL" legislation does upend the capital structure. But really, at this point the common trades as a ghost of its former self--merely a placeholder in what will necessarily be two banks left to stand.
The more I looked at irish bank debt the more I wanted nothing to do with it--and own more ordinaries instead. Only 7 billion across all the banks here remaining. If they could just get 10% off the senior, and after the State Pension recap, there'd be next to no draw on the official bailout funds.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2011 6:44 am Post subject: |
|
|
Ireland putting its elephant gun to work this week, court reversing debt hierarchies in AIB, stripping preferred dividends while allowing reinstatement in common. Next up: "voluntary" moves on the seniors.
Should make for some interesting bizschool case-studies in the decades ahead--if not european courts rulings.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Thu Mar 31, 2011 10:30 am Post subject: |
|
|
Four institutions to become two, one to be sold to leave one....Bank of Ireland. Note the Black Rock bottom-up loan assessments take no recognition of impairments, write-downs, recent cap raises or underlying profits.
The tide is rising on senior bond conversions and haircuts against the rock of the EMU--that's called a free embedded call option. We'll see, but a $1.75 we already have a call.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0331/centralbankreport.pdf
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2011 2:07 pm Post subject: |
|
|
1986 Ireland had the same employment levels as 1926 
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Sun Mar 13, 2011 7:33 am Post subject: |
|
|
Ireland considering going the Sterling "route" now that tax harmonization is back on the table.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Please log in to view without the ad banners |
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Statistics
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
