MarketThoughts.com Home Page
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups  StatisticsStatistics   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

JAPAN
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3, ... 18, 19, 20  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    MarketThoughts.com Forum Index -> Market Commentary
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author JAPAN
rffrydr
Moderator
Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 11508
Location: Sunny California

PostPosted: Fri Mar 03, 2006 12:25 am    Post subject: JAPAN Reply with quote

Core rate up .5%; 3 in a row:

"Mitsubishi UFJ Securities senior strategist Naomi Hasegawa said remarks this morning by Prime Minister Junichi Koizumi fueled conjecture that the central bank will soon end its present policy.

'[Changes in] consumer prices are coming in above zero and we are seeing signs of getting out of deflation,' Koizumi told a parliamentary committee.

His comments were his most positive yet on recent indications that the economy is winning its battle with falling consumer prices. Previously, Koizumi had insisted that it was too soon to say that the economy was coming out of deflation."


Bonds and stocks were short going in. End-of-day showed resiliency, (complaceny?)

Hey Henry, Devil's advocate: with Japanese debt at a Godzilla-sized 160% GDP on the worlds fastest aging population (and most afraid of foreign workers) do they have any choice BUT to reflate their way out? And politicians want a decade for "reforms."

An end to quantiative easing may be announced at the end of Japanese Fiscal Year--but this could take a long, long time to play out. Markets 1st "verdict."
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Post new topic   Reply to topic    MarketThoughts.com Forum Index -> Market Commentary
Author JAPAN Replies
rffrydr
Moderator
Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 11508
Location: Sunny California

PostPosted: Sun Nov 22, 2009 1:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I never did buy into that Tokyo privileged property recovery couple years back. Here's the "real japan" where you too could be the proud owner of a mountain getaway for less than honda civic--complete with the fluorescent colors of the boom:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/a3495cfc-d49b-11de-a935-00144feabdc0.html
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
rffrydr
Moderator
Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 11508
Location: Sunny California

PostPosted: Fri Nov 20, 2009 8:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Topix bank index came within 5% of March lows but rallied out of hole last night.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
rffrydr
Moderator
Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 11508
Location: Sunny California

PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2009 7:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

rffrydr wrote:
I'd fade that.


Wink
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
HenryTo
Site Admin
Site Admin


Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 9324
Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California

PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2009 12:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just like clockwork, Japanese government bonds bounce back:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JGB futures rally to 3-wk high on solid 5-yr sale
Reuters - 1 hour 17 minutes ago
* 5-yr JGB auction draws solid demand, offsets fiscal worries

* 10-yr yield down 10.5 bps from 5-mth high hit this week

By Shinichi Saoshiro

TOKYO, Nov 11 - Japanese government bonds rallied on Thursday, with 10-year futures jumping to a three-week high, as the market took heart in the solid results of a five-year debt sale after a string of poorly received auctions.

The 2.4 trillion yen five-year auction helped allay concerns over Japan's fiscal situation that had sent the benchmark 10-year yield to a five-month high earlier in the week.

The auction's bid-to-cover ratio, a gauge of demand, rose to 3.7 from 2.17 at the previous auction in October and was the highest since the September tender. The tail, the difference between the lowest and average prices and used as another gauge of an auction's success, tightened to 0.02 from 0.04. <TENDER01>

"Recent JGB selling had gone a little too far," said Nobuto Yamazaki, a fund manager at DIAM Asset Management.

"Investors are still worried about what next year's budget will look like, but if the government can pull it together and keep bond issuance somewhat under control, then the market will settle down and yields could pull back even further."

December 10-year futures jumped 0.48 point to 138.34, having hit a three-week high of 138.38. They touched a three-month low of 137.29 on Monday.

The two-year yield dipped half a basis point to 0.250 percent <JP2YTN=JBTC>. The five-year yield <JP5YTN=JBTC> fell 2.5 basis points to 0.685 percent.

The benchmark 10-year yield fell 4.5 basis points to 1.380 percent, pulling sharply away from a five-month high of 1.485 percent struck earlier in the week.

The more than 10 basis-point slide in the benchmark 10-year yield this week was initiated by comments by officials earlier in the week that the government must ensure its spending plans did not rattle bond investors' confidence. [ID:nT218318]

The two- to 10-year yield spread tightened by 4.5 basis points to 113 basis points according to Reuters data. It hit a 3-� year high of 121 basis points earlier this week.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
rffrydr
Moderator
Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 11508
Location: Sunny California

PostPosted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 6:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd fade that. 2.5 X GDP debt is only a guide. Pulling the plug on Postal System privatization will lock gargantuan liquidity into JGBs in this original asian surplus nation. Not a blip in the yen shows that "investors" just don't matter. Wonder how Jimmy Rogers is reconciling this insult to his asiantics?

Ironically the "sclerotic" japan, is also its stabilizer: the elderly don't spend with a splash but they do spend. And on fixed incomes they spend freely and regularly, economy be-damned. The ceiling is the floor. Meanwhile the economy is chugging along despite the extreme pressures put on exports from the yen. Remember the "great hollowing out"? Well that's yen-free production.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
HenryTo
Site Admin
Site Admin


Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 9324
Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California

PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In the meantime, CDS on JGBs have continued to spike. Could this be the "Einhorn Effect?"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6480289/It-is-Japan-we-should-be-worrying-about-not-America.html

Quote:
The rocketing cost of insuring against the bankruptcy of the Japanese state is telling us that the model has smashed into the buffers. Credit default swaps (CDS) on five-year Japanese debt have risen from 35 to 63 basis points since early September. Japan has suddenly decoupled from Germany (21), France (22), the US (22), and even Britain (47).

Regime-change in Tokyo and the arrival of Yukio Hatoyama's neophyte Democrats – raising $550bn (£333bn) to help fund their blitz on welfare and the "new social policy" – have concentrated the minds of investors at long last. "Markets are worried that Japan is going to hit a brick wall: the sums are gargantuan," said Albert Edwards, a Japan-veteran at Société Générale.

Simon Johnson, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), told the US Congress last week that the debt path was out of control and raised "a real risk that Japan could end up in a major default".
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
rffrydr
Moderator
Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 11508
Location: Sunny California

PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So they all like to say we are like japan...and then turn and run to gold on a projected inflation scare.

In a refreshing turn this guy sees china in japan:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/39f61cb6-c818-11de-8ba8-00144feab49a.html

Quote:
then, as now, the logic seemed unassailable. While the western world was stuck in the post-crash doldrums, the Japanese economy had got back on track with apparent ease. Japanese corporations were using their high market capitalisations to finance acquisitions of foreign trophy assets. Japanese banks boasted the world's strongest credit ratings.

_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
rffrydr
Moderator
Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 11508
Location: Sunny California

PostPosted: Wed Oct 21, 2009 8:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The "liberalization" of Japan Post was one of the foundations of the bull market of the last decade. Now, the concept of "investment" itself is changing.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/10/21/78911/samurai-dramas-at-japan-post/
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
rffrydr
Moderator
Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 11508
Location: Sunny California

PostPosted: Wed Oct 07, 2009 1:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GavKal exasperated on under(non) performance of japan. Looking for some new catalyst.

Really this just underscores how much a liquidity phenomenon this is. Mrs. Wananabe is not interested in the TOPIX and the foreign devil can't deal with the water torture. Their banks threw away their balance sheets. Even the cowboy hedgies have failed to stir anything up. It's an island fortress....it's a monolith. Nikkei 40,000 had as much to do with a sublimated nationalism/demographic as anything and they're not going back.

A catalyst? Dollar carry Idea
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
rffrydr
Moderator
Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 11508
Location: Sunny California

PostPosted: Sat Oct 03, 2009 6:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tokyo Auto Show RIP: foreign cars less than 5% of market "cleverly" closed to foreign manufacturing plants.

http://www.freep.com/article/20091001/COL06/910010481/1014/BUSINESS01/Foreign-car-brands-skip-Tokyo-show
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
rffrydr
Moderator
Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 11508
Location: Sunny California

PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2009 6:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rffrydr wrote:
Japan is no mirror I have argued below, and neither is its deflation. At it's most abstract deflation is a minus sign--thus a relative value. Thus the starting point is as important as any trend. And where do we start in Japan? It's an island and its postwar reformation would make sure that one thing would remain the same. Japan's economy was a fortress built not so much on the obvious grumbled about tariffs and "health standards," its "creative destruction" that takes cars off the road after three years, its "maturity," its distance--but its price. Under the guise of quality (not nothing but the "best," but nothing but the "purest") everything was set up to cost so much--at all levels of economic particaption that, as a whole, the country "priced itself out of the market." .....Though it is clear we did not "learn the lesson of the zombie banks" the lessons we need to learn are our own.


Here it is again sitting atop one of the "greatest" rallies in history, now from Albert Edwards:

Quote:
In addition, banks are retrenching their loan books as policy makers force higher capital
requirements. In all probability this process would occur irrespective of government
involvement as banks inevitably act pro-cyclically, exacerbating both boom and bust. But as we repeatedly highlight, one of the lessons from Japan is not to mistakenly believe that banks are the problem. Similarly a healthy, recapitalised banking sector is not the solution.
As Japan experienced before, it is de-leveraging that is the problem and retrenchment takes many years, rendering the economy extremely vulnerable to rapid relapses back into recession when any reverse or pause in extreme stimulus occurs. The Great Moderation relied on the debt super-cycle which is dead and buried.


Structurally all true. But there are bigger and deeper structures at work now.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
HenryTo
Site Admin
Site Admin


Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 9324
Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California

PostPosted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 7:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nikkei pretty much peaked during the first half hour of trading. Now only up 14 points after rising as much as 215 points earlier.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
HenryTo
Site Admin
Site Admin


Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 9324
Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California

PostPosted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 11:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Democrats win 302 of the 480 seats in the Lower House. Look for more direct social benefits to boost the birth rate and for the poor - a more proactive relationship with its Asian neighbors.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/31/world/asia/31japan.html?pagewanted=2&hp
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
rffrydr
Moderator
Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 11508
Location: Sunny California

PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 8:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, this is a big deal: Machine orders rise; surplus expands first since feb '08.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=af3k0yCGP2Ms
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
HenryTo
Site Admin
Site Admin


Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 9324
Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California

PostPosted: Sat Jul 11, 2009 12:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tons of articles from the recent Reuters Investment Summit on Japan:

http://www.reuters.com/summit/JapanInvestment09?pid=500
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website

Please log in to view without the ad banners
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    MarketThoughts.com Forum Index -> Market Commentary All times are GMT - 6 Hours
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3, ... 18, 19, 20  Next
Page 2 of 20

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


|Web Hosting Companies| Powered by phpBB