JAPAN

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Mar 03, 2006 12:25 am Post subject: JAPAN

Core rate up .5%; 3 in a row:

"Mitsubishi UFJ Securities senior strategist Naomi Hasegawa said remarks this morning by Prime Minister Junichi Koizumi fueled conjecture that the central bank will soon end its present policy.

'[Changes in] consumer prices are coming in above zero and we are seeing signs of getting out of deflation,' Koizumi told a parliamentary committee.

His comments were his most positive yet on recent indications that the economy is winning its battle with falling consumer prices. Previously, Koizumi had insisted that it was too soon to say that the economy was coming out of deflation."

Bonds and stocks were short going in. End-of-day showed resiliency, (complaceny?)

Hey Henry, Devil's advocate: with Japanese debt at a Godzilla-sized 160% GDP on the worlds fastest aging population (and most afraid of foreign workers) do they have any choice BUT to reflate their way out? And politicians want a decade for "reforms."

An end to quantiative easing may be announced at the end of Japanese Fiscal Year--but this could take a long, long time to play out. Markets 1st "verdict."
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2009 1:12 pm Post subject:

I never did buy into that Tokyo privileged property recovery couple years back. Here's the "real japan" where you too could be the proud owner of a mountain getaway for less than honda civic--complete with the fluorescent colors of the boom:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/a3495cfc-d49b-11de-a935-00144feabdc0.html
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2009 8:08 am Post subject:

Topix bank index came within 5% of March lows but rallied out of hole last night.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2009 7:17 am Post subject:

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2009 12:27 am Post subject:

Just like clockwork, Japanese government bonds bounce back:
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JGB futures rally to 3-wk high on solid 5-yr sale
Reuters - 1 hour 17 minutes ago
* 5-yr JGB auction draws solid demand, offsets fiscal worries

* 10-yr yield down 10.5 bps from 5-mth high hit this week

By Shinichi Saoshiro

TOKYO, Nov 11 - Japanese government bonds rallied on Thursday, with 10-year futures jumping to a three-week high, as the market took heart in the solid results of a five-year debt sale after a string of poorly received auctions.

The 2.4 trillion yen five-year auction helped allay concerns over Japan's fiscal situation that had sent the benchmark 10-year yield to a five-month high earlier in the week.

The auction's bid-to-cover ratio, a gauge of demand, rose to 3.7 from 2.17 at the previous auction in October and was the highest since the September tender. The tail, the difference between the lowest and average prices and used as another gauge of an auction's success, tightened to 0.02 from 0.04. <TENDER01>

"Recent JGB selling had gone a little too far," said Nobuto Yamazaki, a fund manager at DIAM Asset Management.

"Investors are still worried about what next year's budget will look like, but if the government can pull it together and keep bond issuance somewhat under control, then the market will settle down and yields could pull back even further."

December 10-year futures jumped 0.48 point to 138.34, having hit a three-week high of 138.38. They touched a three-month low of 137.29 on Monday.

The two-year yield dipped half a basis point to 0.250 percent <JP2YTN=JBTC>. The five-year yield <JP5YTN=JBTC> fell 2.5 basis points to 0.685 percent.

The benchmark 10-year yield fell 4.5 basis points to 1.380 percent, pulling sharply away from a five-month high of 1.485 percent struck earlier in the week.

The more than 10 basis-point slide in the benchmark 10-year yield this week was initiated by comments by officials earlier in the week that the government must ensure its spending plans did not rattle bond investors' confidence. [ID:nT218318]

The two- to 10-year yield spread tightened by 4.5 basis points to 113 basis points according to Reuters data. It hit a 3-� year high of 121 basis points earlier this week.

rffrydr · Posted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 6:45 am Post subject:

I'd fade that. 2.5 X GDP debt is only a guide. Pulling the plug on Postal System privatization will lock gargantuan liquidity into JGBs in this original asian surplus nation. Not a blip in the yen shows that "investors" just don't matter. Wonder how Jimmy Rogers is reconciling this insult to his asiantics?

Ironically the "sclerotic" japan, is also its stabilizer: the elderly don't spend with a splash but they do spend. And on fixed incomes they spend freely and regularly, economy be-damned. The ceiling is the floor. Meanwhile the economy is chugging along despite the extreme pressures put on exports from the yen. Remember the "great hollowing out"? Well that's yen-free production.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:06 pm Post subject:

In the meantime, CDS on JGBs have continued to spike. Could this be the "Einhorn Effect?"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6480289/It-is-Japan-we-should-be-worrying-about-not-America.html

rffrydr · Posted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:48 pm Post subject:

So they all like to say we are like japan...and then turn and run to gold on a projected inflation scare.

In a refreshing turn this guy sees china in japan:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/39f61cb6-c818-11de-8ba8-00144feab49a.html

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Oct 21, 2009 8:54 am Post subject:

The "liberalization" of Japan Post was one of the foundations of the bull market of the last decade. Now, the concept of "investment" itself is changing.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/10/21/78911/samurai-dramas-at-japan-post/
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Oct 07, 2009 1:40 pm Post subject:

GavKal exasperated on under(non) performance of japan. Looking for some new catalyst.

Really this just underscores how much a liquidity phenomenon this is. Mrs. Wananabe is not interested in the TOPIX and the foreign devil can't deal with the water torture. Their banks threw away their balance sheets. Even the cowboy hedgies have failed to stir anything up. It's an island fortress....it's a monolith. Nikkei 40,000 had as much to do with a sublimated nationalism/demographic as anything and they're not going back.

A catalyst? Dollar carry Idea

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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Sat Oct 03, 2009 6:58 pm Post subject:

Tokyo Auto Show RIP: foreign cars less than 5% of market "cleverly" closed to foreign manufacturing plants.

http://www.freep.com/article/20091001/COL06/910010481/1014/BUSINESS01/Foreign-car-brands-skip-Tokyo-show
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Sep 17, 2009 6:31 pm Post subject:

HenryTo · Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 7:47 pm Post subject:

Nikkei pretty much peaked during the first half hour of trading. Now only up 14 points after rising as much as 215 points earlier.

HenryTo · Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 11:48 am Post subject:

The Democrats win 302 of the 480 seats in the Lower House. Look for more direct social benefits to boost the birth rate and for the poor - a more proactive relationship with its Asian neighbors.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/31/world/asia/31japan.html?pagewanted=2&hp

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 8:57 am Post subject:

Yes, this is a big deal: Machine orders rise; surplus expands first since feb '08.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=af3k0yCGP2Ms
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Jul 11, 2009 12:20 am Post subject:

Tons of articles from the recent Reuters Investment Summit on Japan:

http://www.reuters.com/summit/JapanInvestment09?pid=500