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rffrydr
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 Posted: Fri Mar 03, 2006 12:25 am Post subject: JAPAN |
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Core rate up .5%; 3 in a row:
"Mitsubishi UFJ Securities senior strategist Naomi Hasegawa said remarks this morning by Prime Minister Junichi Koizumi fueled conjecture that the central bank will soon end its present policy.
'[Changes in] consumer prices are coming in above zero and we are seeing signs of getting out of deflation,' Koizumi told a parliamentary committee.
His comments were his most positive yet on recent indications that the economy is winning its battle with falling consumer prices. Previously, Koizumi had insisted that it was too soon to say that the economy was coming out of deflation."
Bonds and stocks were short going in. End-of-day showed resiliency, (complaceny?)
Hey Henry, Devil's advocate: with Japanese debt at a Godzilla-sized 160% GDP on the worlds fastest aging population (and most afraid of foreign workers) do they have any choice BUT to reflate their way out? And politicians want a decade for "reforms."
An end to quantiative easing may be announced at the end of Japanese Fiscal Year--but this could take a long, long time to play out. Markets 1st "verdict."
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Dec 21, 2008 9:13 pm Post subject: |
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Yen falling tonight on autobailout. May seem like a journalistic grasping for straws if not for the fact that asia has been taking its lead from the auto story for at least the past two weeks.
Manufacturing is still taken seriously in this part of the world that Wall St. takes all too seriously. From this it follows....nope.
So much for money's "efficiency."
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sat Dec 20, 2008 10:49 pm Post subject: |
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Bank of Japan examining a wider range of policies it can take to jump start the domestic economy. With its government debt-to-GDP ratio at nearly 200%, it needs to do this via monetary policy, as opposed to fiscal policy. Selling the Yen would be a good start...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDc7aC7z9YK8&refer=home |
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HenryTo
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Dec 12, 2008 4:49 pm Post subject: |
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I continue to maintain that Japan's great bust was primarily a cultural manifestation of a generation exhausted and nothing left to achieve. Planting the flag on Rockefeller center and Pebble Beach was the final redemption and extension of WWII expansion. The debt and it's conflation with ancient traditions of integrity, the patriotic investing and perfection of "salaryman" were all symptoms of this. Deflation would take its inevitable course.
We will overlap--but that will just be an accident of economics. You've got to remember the japanese had everything. Don't buy today what you can buy cheaper tomorrow only goes so far in this country--savings culture or no.
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chestnutstime
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| Posted: Fri Dec 12, 2008 12:58 pm Post subject: |
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Richard Koo's recent discussions titled GREAT RECESSIONS - LESSONS LEARNED FROM JAPAN, where video/audio/slides are available for downloading:
http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_events/task,view/id,1828
| Quote: | | Richard C. Koo, the world-renowned chief economist of Nomura Research Institute, discussed the lessons learned from Japan's "lost decade" during a presentation at CSIS. During his discussion, Koo suggested that government stimulus can play a key role in alleviating the problems of a balance sheet recession. Koo's recent book, The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan's Great Recession, discusses these issues in greater detail. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Dec 11, 2008 6:55 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Japanese banks
Published: December 11 2008 09:17 | Last updated: December 11 2008 10:02
They are not broke, begging the government for hand-outs or paying monstrous amounts of money to their executives. Instead Japanese banks are doing much the same as always: keeping loan books ticking over on wafer-thin net interest margins and missing profit forecasts. As strategies go, this is not a humdinger.
In the past few months, Japan’s three mega-banks have acknowledged some of those weaknesses, and are tapping the capital markets for around $20bn. But they now appear to be re-doing their sums on the hoof. Less than a month ago Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group indicated it would raise roughly $4bn; on Thursday it unveiled plans to issue $5.8bn worth of preferred securities and warned more may follow. That looks a pretty safe bet. SMFG’s bad loans, like those of its peers, are climbing as the economy sours. Credit costs basically doubled in the six months to the end of September compared with a year ago. Profits are tumbling. SMFG expects net profits to fall 61 per cent this year; analysts’ consensus numbers make that look optimistic.
Japanese banks’ tier 1 ratios of around 7-8 per cent already look meagre beside those of their government-boosted peers overseas, and could well get worse. As the quality of the loan book deteriorates, more capital will need to be put aside. The tanking domestic stock market, down 42 per cent year-to-date as measured by the broad Topix index, also takes a toll, given banks’ big equities holdings. Barclays Capital estimates that a Topix level of around 800, as it was early this month, creates aggregate unrealised losses of around $38bn for the six biggest banks. Some 60 per cent of these losses come out of tier 1 capital, which would bring the average ratio down to 7 per cent. None of which makes the stream of issuance from Japanese banks a screaming buy. Japanese insurers, who have shovelled up much of this paper, don’t look too clever either |
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Thu Dec 04, 2008 11:35 am Post subject: |
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Japan's fame for building "white elephants" is still intact. On the other hand, Japan's building prowess is desperately needed here in Los Angeles:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aYomskNBwinE&refer=home
| Quote: | Japan’s $268 million Ibaraki Airport is on schedule to open for business in March 2010. The hard part will be persuading an airline to fly there.
The government and Ibaraki prefecture, home to 3 million people, are paying for the airport north of Tokyo, which won’t have train services and is a half-hour drive from Ibaraki’s capital, Mito. Japan Airlines Corp. and All Nippon Airways Co., which operate 90 percent of flights in the country, don’t plan to use it.
As the global credit crunch drives Japan into its first recession since 2001, the country is building roads and airports that have helped make it the world’s most indebted major economy. Critics say many of the projects have little economic value beyond the building industry. |
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sun Nov 30, 2008 5:36 pm Post subject: |
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Bank of Japan to hold emergency policy meeting:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=acgmAXkhVNPY&refer=home
| Quote: | | The bank will discuss creating a special lending program for the first time in 10 years as Japanese companies face difficulties procuring capital and banks become more cautious about lending, public broadcaster NHK said on its Web site. |
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sat Nov 22, 2008 12:06 pm Post subject: |
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Japan is likely the only developed country that's still extending credit right now to its home buyers:
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/11/21/yourmoney/mloan.php
| Quote: | From the borrower's side, it is an easy decision to use a loan to buy property in Japan. Interest for mortgage loans starts around 1 percent to 2 percent for variable rates and about 3 percent for fixed rates, and the terms can be as long as 35 years. The average yield on rental property is around 6 percent.
Richard Harris, Tokyo branch manager at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said that he commonly found excitement among customers at conferences his bank organizes. At a recent conference, "the thing that stood out was the reaction: 'I didn't know you could do this in Japan,"' he said.
"Every time I talk to expats, you see their mind just clicking over as soon as they hear those numbers and the thought of buying properties suddenly seems much more appealing to them."
As banks internationally are tightening credit, the amount of a typical mortgage has shrunk from 80 percent of the purchase price to between 50 percent to 70 percent for banks in Hong Kong and Singapore. But Collins said that in Japan, "it is still possible to get 80 percent, which is actually the standard, and sometimes even 100 percent."
Collins said his foreign clients borrow on average ¥65 million and up to ¥300 million for property purchases. While Japanese banks' offerings are still quite traditional, foreign lenders offer special facilities like home equity loans, choice of currencies and the chance to use a property from the home country as collateral. |
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HenryTo
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