JAPAN

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Mar 03, 2006 12:25 am Post subject: JAPAN

Core rate up .5%; 3 in a row:

"Mitsubishi UFJ Securities senior strategist Naomi Hasegawa said remarks this morning by Prime Minister Junichi Koizumi fueled conjecture that the central bank will soon end its present policy.

'[Changes in] consumer prices are coming in above zero and we are seeing signs of getting out of deflation,' Koizumi told a parliamentary committee.

His comments were his most positive yet on recent indications that the economy is winning its battle with falling consumer prices. Previously, Koizumi had insisted that it was too soon to say that the economy was coming out of deflation."

Bonds and stocks were short going in. End-of-day showed resiliency, (complaceny?)

Hey Henry, Devil's advocate: with Japanese debt at a Godzilla-sized 160% GDP on the worlds fastest aging population (and most afraid of foreign workers) do they have any choice BUT to reflate their way out? And politicians want a decade for "reforms."

An end to quantiative easing may be announced at the end of Japanese Fiscal Year--but this could take a long, long time to play out. Markets 1st "verdict."
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Nov 11, 2008 9:07 am Post subject:

Japan’s October bankruptcies rose 13.4% y/y and 1.5% m/m.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Sat Nov 01, 2008 8:22 am Post subject:

Watch 'em (not) go: the "hodo-hodo zuko" and the generational rejection of money.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122548483530388957.html

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Oct 30, 2008 11:16 pm Post subject:

Bank of Japan cuts by 20 bps to 0.3%. First rate cut in seven years. Also introduces a temporary measure (similar to the Fed's) to allow the BoJ to pay interest on excess reserves. This will allow the BoJ to better control the policy rate while flooding the system with more liquidity:

http://www.boj.or.jp/en/type/release/adhoc/k081031.pdf

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Oct 30, 2008 9:13 am Post subject:

Japan unveils its own fiscal stimulus package:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122535747793083815.html?mod=testMod

HenryTo · Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 8:28 pm Post subject:

Markets have virtually priced in a 25 bps cut by the Bank of Japan this Friday:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&refer=japan&sid=aHItmkVzBE4U

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 2:58 pm Post subject:

Some of the force behind the yen's drive:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aChQ_RUkxNnw&refer=japan
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 6:45 pm Post subject:

As hard as it is to hold back the tide when your currency is being run-out it's that easy to trash when it's being run into. Just print, print and print. BOJ has made good profits running this but the big turn back in the '90s came with the japanese public. They may not want to invest in the US but they sure as heck will go on tour....and buy, buy, buy. Except for realestate.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 6:22 pm Post subject:

Markets now expecting the BOJ to act:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avchlotubF5g&refer=home

Annoncement will not come until after the BOJ has intervened. Traders around the world (especially in EM and Korea) are crossing their fingers here.

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 4:29 am Post subject:

Japan has embarked upon this sisyphean task in the past--themselves. No doubt they want, and we need, coordinated global intervention. It's a question of whether they have the leadership admist their flailing politics. "The Great British Krona" they are calling sterling on the Alphaville board.

The problem with forced selling is that it is forced to continue. 13years of carry-trade is hopefully NOT behind this selling.

The splash we have made is now washing back onto us, with amplified force and the most perverse consequences. Oct 31st. Mutual Fund year end--we may be going on holiday.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

diesel · Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 4:29 am Post subject:

Jim Rogers has publicly said he is long the yen. There are no doubt others as well.

diesel · Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 4:25 am Post subject:

Don't know about you but I don't have that level of confidence in Mr Masaaki Shirakwa. Confused

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All cats are gray in the dark.

HenryTo · Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 4:13 am Post subject:

I agree - it needs to follow through and hit all the bids ASAP. The other side of the trade is being forced to liquidate. They are not speculating. They have no choice. The BoJ has to come in and take the other side, now.

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 4:10 am Post subject:

It better come now. Idea

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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Sun Oct 26, 2008 10:26 pm Post subject:

One of the most significant developments over the last few weeks: Japan's Finance Minister telling investors/carry-traders that it will intervene in the currency markets to stem the rise of the Yen:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=an0s9tXTrWFY&refer=home

HenryTo · Posted: Sun Oct 26, 2008 2:53 pm Post subject:

Japan ramps up its bailout package - to be implemented starting tomorrow:

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20081027TDY01304.htm