JAPAN

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Mar 03, 2006 12:25 am Post subject: JAPAN

Core rate up .5%; 3 in a row:

"Mitsubishi UFJ Securities senior strategist Naomi Hasegawa said remarks this morning by Prime Minister Junichi Koizumi fueled conjecture that the central bank will soon end its present policy.

'[Changes in] consumer prices are coming in above zero and we are seeing signs of getting out of deflation,' Koizumi told a parliamentary committee.

His comments were his most positive yet on recent indications that the economy is winning its battle with falling consumer prices. Previously, Koizumi had insisted that it was too soon to say that the economy was coming out of deflation."

Bonds and stocks were short going in. End-of-day showed resiliency, (complaceny?)

Hey Henry, Devil's advocate: with Japanese debt at a Godzilla-sized 160% GDP on the worlds fastest aging population (and most afraid of foreign workers) do they have any choice BUT to reflate their way out? And politicians want a decade for "reforms."

An end to quantiative easing may be announced at the end of Japanese Fiscal Year--but this could take a long, long time to play out. Markets 1st "verdict."
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 1:33 am Post subject:

A take on the new Bank of Japan governor:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aKDaZ6f00Tao&refer=home

diesel · Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 2:57 am Post subject:

And the selling continues.

HenryTo · Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 11:53 pm Post subject:

Tankan (due April 1st) bears watching, given the rapid rise in the Japanese Yen over the last few months:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aj3HVCIOvhhI&refer=home

Note that the next policy meeting at the Bank of Japan is on April 8th and 9th, although I am not expecting a rate cut so soon:

http://www.boj.or.jp/en/type/schedule/s071220.htm

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 7:38 pm Post subject:

The stocks were up the same but JOF couldn't hang.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

diesel · Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 6:47 pm Post subject:

Japan Economy Grows 3.7 Percent, Beating Estimates

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=apSXdqDWYKnQ&refer=home

dknoester · Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 12:57 pm Post subject:

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:28 am Post subject:

In other news, Japanese government data showed that the country's current-account surplus contracted 4.7% in December from a year earlier, the first decline in a year. The current-account surplus jumped 26% during 2007
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

diesel · Posted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 4:02 pm Post subject:

Japanese are in general quite conservative in there use of leverage. Losses in the range of 300 billion would be quite unlikely IMO. I recall reading a statistic that as a percentage of GDP the Japanese have around 10% outstanding in corporate bonds which is the equivalent ratio of subprime and other high risk debt in America.

lmrhoades · Senior Poster Joined: 17 Jan 2008 Posts: 112

Analysts say Japan may be sitting on a mountain of sub-prime debt that they have yet to admit. Seen by some as the 'next shoe to drop,' estimates are Japan may be sitting on close to $300 billion in mortgage-related debt, trumping the $130 billion or so admitted by U.S. firms. A possible harbinger of things to come, the iTraxx index which measures the default risk of 50 Japanese companies jumped to 77.5 Thursday, its biggest-ever one day move.

Any thoughts?
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LMR

HenryTo · Posted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 12:26 pm Post subject:

The Japanese has always been good in "shooting themselves in the foot." But if the Bank of Japan does ease (even by 25 bps) sometime over the next few months, foreign investment flows can quickly come back again.

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20080211.GIF

The US Fed would not have hesitated, but that is assuming:

1) The Japanese likes foreign investments, which is a very questionable assumption - even from a passive standpoint;

2) The Japanese would not mind a strong Yen - which will probably manifest itself if fund inflows spike going forward. Again, this is a questionable assumption.

rffrydr · Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2008 10:34 pm Post subject:

Nothing brings out the divide like japan. 2/3 of daily volume is foreign trade. "Japanese companies have not concentrated on profitiblitiy." Nonetheless japanese mangers are buying selectively:

http://www.thomsonimnews.com/story.asp?storycode=34768
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 11:32 am Post subject:

Credit where credit was due (from June 29):

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2007/06/29/5558/greed-fear-on-the-end-of-securitisation-and-the-looming-sell-off/

By someone who found a buy at the end of a long chain of sells--in the japanese small market.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 8:04 am Post subject:

Reference point: JOF

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JOF&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p76355487307
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 11:06 pm Post subject:

The Nikkei impressively reversed its decline earlier and is now in positive territory. The dividend yield is now greater than the 10-year JGB bond yield. Historically, wheneverthis has crossed, it has always been good enough for at least a substantial bounce.

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:23 am Post subject:

In 2002 Nikkei was a follower. Now it's a leader. I'd expect those extremes to be challenged. The 90 record however will remain.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!