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HenryTo Site Admin


Joined: 06 Aug 2004 Posts: 9333 Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
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Posted: Sun Sep 17, 2006 6:04 pm Post subject: |
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| Interestingly, the "jawboning" of the Yen vs. the Euro failed to spark any kind of rally in the Yen as I am writing this. In fact, Yen just took another 0.40% hit against the Dollar... |
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rffrydr Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005 Posts: 11515 Location: Sunny California
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Posted: Tue Sep 05, 2006 8:07 am Post subject: |
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And what sparked this? CapEX. _________________ Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
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HenryTo Site Admin


Joined: 06 Aug 2004 Posts: 9333 Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
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rffrydr Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005 Posts: 11515 Location: Sunny California
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rffrydr Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005 Posts: 11515 Location: Sunny California
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Posted: Sat Sep 02, 2006 9:05 pm Post subject: |
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Gimme that Yen-based mortgage! Also has missed any lift recently from new Yuan highs.
But there is also the mid-year repat which starts next week. Alot of August is traditional front-running in thin markets. One thing I've learned over time regarding the currency markets is, come hell or high water, nothing gets in the way of a vacatiion on the Portugese coast! |
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HenryTo Site Admin


Joined: 06 Aug 2004 Posts: 9333 Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
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Posted: Sat Sep 02, 2006 11:26 am Post subject: |
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If the following projections do ultimately turn out to be true, then the Yen could head much lower as there is still not much incentive to hedge the dollar against the Yen at this point:
http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2266 |
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HenryTo Site Admin


Joined: 06 Aug 2004 Posts: 9333 Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
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Posted: Sat Sep 02, 2006 11:19 am Post subject: |
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sjwohio,
Traditionally, August has always been a good month for Yen - as in 12 out of the last 15 years (with the exception of 1995, 1996, 1997, and 2006), the Yen has always gone up during August. The logical explanation is this: The Japanese holds over $600 billion Treasuries. The coupon on these Treasuries is paid during August and when this coupon is repatriated back to Japan, Japanese investors will have to exchange the coupons in dollars back to the Yen - thus causing the Yen to rise in August.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=JY&o=&a=W&z=800x550&d=medium&b=CANDLE&st=
The fact that the Yen did not rise during this August is very important - although we are not sure on what the implications are just yet. The most likely scenario is that the Yen is in a big bear market, and will thus continue to decline for the foreseeable future. Assuming the Yen topped out in the beginning of 2005 and if we follow the timeline of the last Yen bear market (from 1995 to 1998 - coincidentally, the Yen also declined during August from 1995 to 1997), then the Yen decline could last another 12 to 18 months... |
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sjwohio Experienced Poster

Joined: 20 Sep 2005 Posts: 65 Location: Ohio
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Posted: Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:40 am Post subject: Japan Carry Trade |
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Japan carry trade back on?? It's the question being discussed on CNBC. _________________ SJW |
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rffrydr Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005 Posts: 11515 Location: Sunny California
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rffrydr Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005 Posts: 11515 Location: Sunny California
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rffrydr Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005 Posts: 11515 Location: Sunny California
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rffrydr Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005 Posts: 11515 Location: Sunny California
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Posted: Sat Aug 12, 2006 8:27 am Post subject: |
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"....If this assessment is correct, international bond investors putting their money in Japan are taking on the currency risk of yen assets, without the reward of investing in a market that diverges significantly from dollar-denominated bonds."
http://biz.yahoo.com/ft/060810/fto081020061609163713.html?.v=1 |
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HenryTo Site Admin


Joined: 06 Aug 2004 Posts: 9333 Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
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Posted: Fri Aug 11, 2006 11:33 am Post subject: |
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Yen taking a huge hit today. Japan continues to be a significant deflationary force on the world economy, but few know it yet. Everyone is focusing on China right now.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=JYU06
Once auto prices start getting slashed again, it will become much clearer to the general population.
Henry |
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rffrydr Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005 Posts: 11515 Location: Sunny California
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rffrydr Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005 Posts: 11515 Location: Sunny California
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