JAPAN

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Mar 03, 2006 12:25 am Post subject: JAPAN

Core rate up .5%; 3 in a row:

"Mitsubishi UFJ Securities senior strategist Naomi Hasegawa said remarks this morning by Prime Minister Junichi Koizumi fueled conjecture that the central bank will soon end its present policy.

'[Changes in] consumer prices are coming in above zero and we are seeing signs of getting out of deflation,' Koizumi told a parliamentary committee.

His comments were his most positive yet on recent indications that the economy is winning its battle with falling consumer prices. Previously, Koizumi had insisted that it was too soon to say that the economy was coming out of deflation."

Bonds and stocks were short going in. End-of-day showed resiliency, (complaceny?)

Hey Henry, Devil's advocate: with Japanese debt at a Godzilla-sized 160% GDP on the worlds fastest aging population (and most afraid of foreign workers) do they have any choice BUT to reflate their way out? And politicians want a decade for "reforms."

An end to quantiative easing may be announced at the end of Japanese Fiscal Year--but this could take a long, long time to play out. Markets 1st "verdict."
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Jul 07, 2006 8:37 am Post subject:

Bank of Japan hike next Thurs. Again, Fukui wants very incremental move but .25 basis points off zero is HUGE.

US tightening was "ignored" for almost 2 years. It's a different time and a different place but I wouldn't want to be long India now.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Mon Jul 03, 2006 11:39 pm Post subject:

rffrydr,

I wouldn't be too worried about any liquidity spillover effects on the U.S. stock market until the 10-year JGB yield goes over 2%. For now, I am closely watching the Barnes Index.

The latest update has the Barnes Index at 64.40 - very close to our previous "danger zone" of 65 to 70 (which had worked well previously as a timing indicator). Given the current still-oversold condition of our technical and sentiment indicators, I am now going to "upgrade" our danger zone to a level of 70 to 75.

Thanks for "holding up the fort" while I was gone to Austin. I am now back in Houston but will unfortunately have to go back there tomorrow. More on the next msg...

Best regards,

Henry

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Jul 03, 2006 8:22 am Post subject:

Easy money getting tighter:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAxFRi980rCc&refer=

With Fukui withstanding his "scandal" Christmas delay looks unlikely. Remember a .25% on the Japanese scale is huge.

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:46 am Post subject:

BOJ did same-day drain. First time since April '04. Again a little tighter. Fukui endored by PM--he has the tightest inflationary targets .9-1.5. But we rallied the Nikkei AHEAD of today.

Everything's up: bonds, commodities, gold, dollar. Interesting turn-of-quarter.

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:29 pm Post subject:

Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said Tuesday that the economy was moving in line with the bank's forecast, and that any interest-rate adjustments should be made early and in a gradual manner. Analysts interpreted Fukui's comments as hawkish.
"We had been forecasting that the BOJ would wait until August to terminate the zero-interest-rate policy," said Goldman Sachs economist Tetsufumi Yamakawa in a research note Wednesday. "But we are now looking for it to do so at its July 13-14 meeting."

Meanwhile the scandal over his "blind trust" that doubled grows.

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2006 8:13 am Post subject:

BOJ adds reserves today. Don't think there'll be any surprises thurs.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Jun 12, 2006 12:30 pm Post subject:

BOJ finishes meeting on Thurs. --wouln't that be a surprise....

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/h00ey@sbcglobal.net/detail?.dir=4d31&.dnm=f93escd.jpg&.src=ph

The Japanese 1 week forward deposit rate is currently 9.4 bps. It is expected to be 14.8 bps at month end, 34 bps at the end of July, and 49 bps at the end of August.

I'm thinking the "surprise" is December. Canadian jobsrate at 32year record. The world pressure to hike is strong. The homefront pressure is stonger. Maybe our much awaited bottom?
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2006 11:43 pm Post subject:

The Nikkei opened positively earlier this evening and proceeded to touch the 14,800 level earlier, rallying by over 170 points. It subsequently gradually declined before hitting a trough of 14,400. It is now positive again at 14,700 or so.

This looks like a temporary bottom on the Nikkei as well.

Goodfella · Veteran Poster Joined: 14 Oct 2005 Posts: 301

looking ropey, maybe a 1230 close. hope not though

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:57 am Post subject:

The bottom just fell out. NY ARMS index just went over 3. There is a possibility that we will touch bottom on an intraday basis and rally in the afternoon.

Goodfella · Veteran Poster Joined: 14 Oct 2005 Posts: 301

would feel more comfortable with dow long here than short, already scalped another 40 points on long side. PG is steaming, oil tanking, (mer my leading indicator is tanking buts that more of monthly indicator)

great trading market days like today

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:38 am Post subject:

VIX now up 11% on an intraday basis and now approaching the 20 level.

NYSE ARMS Index just touched the 2.38 level.

Intraday equity P/C ratio at 10:30 CT just hit 0.90.

Goodfella · Veteran Poster Joined: 14 Oct 2005 Posts: 301

nah i still got couple ftse contracts that i will keep till armegedon Twisted Evil

easier to day trade/scalp when one is not bogged down with large positions

anyway looks like we might see 1230's today afterall, if 10800 goes

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:19 am Post subject:

10-year JGBs now yielding 1.86% - an improvement from yesterday's levels. Long bonds also getting a bid - inflation or no inflation.

The Dow Utilities turned positive earlier this morning. I will still like another washout before going long the DJIA here, though.

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2006 8:59 am Post subject:

I guess I'm the last bear standing--UH-OH

Like to increase on an expiration rally.

1185 after a weak summer rally basis japan. --which is what I want to buy when I go long. (which you guys should talk me out of since I doubt we're gonna see another run like that Livedoor et. al.)

Industrials CAT and Co. have a long way to go if negative YOY and commodites seem only middle of the run to me PD, NUE, Canadian Dollar--will hold short these for a awhile.