JAPAN

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Mar 03, 2006 12:25 am Post subject: JAPAN

Core rate up .5%; 3 in a row:

"Mitsubishi UFJ Securities senior strategist Naomi Hasegawa said remarks this morning by Prime Minister Junichi Koizumi fueled conjecture that the central bank will soon end its present policy.

'[Changes in] consumer prices are coming in above zero and we are seeing signs of getting out of deflation,' Koizumi told a parliamentary committee.

His comments were his most positive yet on recent indications that the economy is winning its battle with falling consumer prices. Previously, Koizumi had insisted that it was too soon to say that the economy was coming out of deflation."

Bonds and stocks were short going in. End-of-day showed resiliency, (complaceny?)

Hey Henry, Devil's advocate: with Japanese debt at a Godzilla-sized 160% GDP on the worlds fastest aging population (and most afraid of foreign workers) do they have any choice BUT to reflate their way out? And politicians want a decade for "reforms."

An end to quantiative easing may be announced at the end of Japanese Fiscal Year--but this could take a long, long time to play out. Markets 1st "verdict."
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 8:23 am Post subject:

No sooner said:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ft/060904/fto090420060731296008.html?.v=1

I hadn't realized the short was a record.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Sat Sep 02, 2006 9:05 pm Post subject:

Gimme that Yen-based mortgage! Also has missed any lift recently from new Yuan highs.

But there is also the mid-year repat which starts next week. Alot of August is traditional front-running in thin markets. One thing I've learned over time regarding the currency markets is, come hell or high water, nothing gets in the way of a vacatiion on the Portugese coast!

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Sep 02, 2006 11:26 am Post subject:

If the following projections do ultimately turn out to be true, then the Yen could head much lower as there is still not much incentive to hedge the dollar against the Yen at this point:

http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2266

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Sep 02, 2006 11:19 am Post subject:

sjwohio,

Traditionally, August has always been a good month for Yen - as in 12 out of the last 15 years (with the exception of 1995, 1996, 1997, and 2006), the Yen has always gone up during August. The logical explanation is this: The Japanese holds over $600 billion Treasuries. The coupon on these Treasuries is paid during August and when this coupon is repatriated back to Japan, Japanese investors will have to exchange the coupons in dollars back to the Yen - thus causing the Yen to rise in August.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=JY&o=&a=W&z=800x550&d=medium&b=CANDLE&st=

The fact that the Yen did not rise during this August is very important - although we are not sure on what the implications are just yet. The most likely scenario is that the Yen is in a big bear market, and will thus continue to decline for the foreseeable future. Assuming the Yen topped out in the beginning of 2005 and if we follow the timeline of the last Yen bear market (from 1995 to 1998 - coincidentally, the Yen also declined during August from 1995 to 1997), then the Yen decline could last another 12 to 18 months...

sjwohio · Posted: Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:40 am Post subject: Japan Carry Trade

Japan carry trade back on?? It's the question being discussed on CNBC.
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SJW

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Aug 30, 2006 7:19 am Post subject:

Retail Sales DOWN. With expectations UP.

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/overnight-briefing-far-east-timezone/2006-08-30.html

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:55 am Post subject:

Now the Germans are starting to squeal. --Still, Japan only 5% of BMW sales.

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?view=CN&storyID=2006-08-28T130703Z_01_L28839029_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-EUROPE-YEN.XML&rpc=66&type=qcna

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Aug 15, 2006 7:28 am Post subject:

Japan is back--the downside:

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2006-08-15T122344Z_01_T137766_RTRUKOC_0_US-JAPAN-SHRINE.xml&WTmodLoc=Home-C5-worldNews-3

Always felt economic resurgence would go hand-in-hand with national self-pride. Now we have the disputed natgas fields in Japanese waters claimed by china. Prospects of a Pan-Asian currency moving on the dollar are slim-to-none for this very, very cultural reason.

Yuan getting banged last couple days. Last stats may have been set up for "managed slowdown" with new US Treasury Sec.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Sat Aug 12, 2006 8:27 am Post subject:

"....If this assessment is correct, international bond investors putting their money in Japan are taking on the currency risk of yen assets, without the reward of investing in a market that diverges significantly from dollar-denominated bonds."

http://biz.yahoo.com/ft/060810/fto081020061609163713.html?.v=1

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Aug 11, 2006 11:33 am Post subject:

Yen taking a huge hit today. Japan continues to be a significant deflationary force on the world economy, but few know it yet. Everyone is focusing on China right now.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=JYU06

Once auto prices start getting slashed again, it will become much clearer to the general population.

Henry

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Aug 08, 2006 7:07 am Post subject:

Fed? What Fed? Bank lending increases best in 10 years:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/bafcd6cc-26ba-11db-81f8-0000779e2340.html

Glad I added a little to my Nikkei on yesterday's oil scare.

rffrydr · Posted: Sun Jul 30, 2006 3:37 pm Post subject:

Another week like this, H. and we'll be at your "spillover" point:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a7.kUOpUArF4&refer=news

Japanese inflation at .8--fifteenmonth high.

rffrydr · Posted: Sun Jul 23, 2006 9:55 pm Post subject:

Currency review in FT while debating extent of "new" carry mentions this mortgage is available now in North America.

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Jul 20, 2006 12:16 am Post subject:

I have seen a study where it predicts a lowering of the maximum rate from 29.2% to 23% could shave as much as 0.36% off of GDP. A further cut to 20% could significantly slow down Japan's economy.

http://japan.seekingalpha.com/article/13720

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2006 7:42 am Post subject:

BOJ injected 1Trillion Y last night and is not using the word "inflation" anymore.

The carry is dead...long live the carry!