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rffrydr
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 Posted: Fri Mar 03, 2006 12:25 am Post subject: JAPAN |
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Core rate up .5%; 3 in a row:
"Mitsubishi UFJ Securities senior strategist Naomi Hasegawa said remarks this morning by Prime Minister Junichi Koizumi fueled conjecture that the central bank will soon end its present policy.
'[Changes in] consumer prices are coming in above zero and we are seeing signs of getting out of deflation,' Koizumi told a parliamentary committee.
His comments were his most positive yet on recent indications that the economy is winning its battle with falling consumer prices. Previously, Koizumi had insisted that it was too soon to say that the economy was coming out of deflation."
Bonds and stocks were short going in. End-of-day showed resiliency, (complaceny?)
Hey Henry, Devil's advocate: with Japanese debt at a Godzilla-sized 160% GDP on the worlds fastest aging population (and most afraid of foreign workers) do they have any choice BUT to reflate their way out? And politicians want a decade for "reforms."
An end to quantiative easing may be announced at the end of Japanese Fiscal Year--but this could take a long, long time to play out. Markets 1st "verdict."
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Jan 02, 2011 6:55 pm Post subject: |
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It's happening:
| Quote: | | Inside the compound's windowless factories, an army of (yes, yellow) robots works 24/7. "On a factory floor as big as a football field you might see four people. It's basically just robots reproducing themselves," says Morten Paulsen, an analyst at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. |
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_49/b4206044280596.htm
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HenryTo
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sat Jan 01, 2011 1:17 pm Post subject: |
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How far can the Japanese model sustain itself? No surprise that the Japanese is the leader in robotic technology.
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Japan population shrinks by record in 2010
TOKYO – Japan's population fell by a record amount last year as the number of deaths climbed to an all-time high in the quickly aging country, the government said Saturday.
Japan faces a looming demographic squeeze. Baby boomers are moving toward retirement, with fewer workers and taxpayers to replace them. The Japanese boast among the highest life expectancies in the world but have extremely low birth rates.
Japan logged 1.19 million deaths in 2010 — the biggest number since 1947 when the health ministry's annual records began. The number of births was nearly flat at 1.07 million.
As a result, Japan contracted by 123,000 people, which was the most ever and represents the fourth consecutive year of population decline. The top causes of death were cancer, heart disease and stroke, the ministry said.
Japanese aged 65 and older make up about a quarter of Japan's current population. The government projects that by 2050, that figure will climb to 40 percent.
Like in other advanced countries, young people are waiting to get married and choosing to have fewer children because of careers and lifestyle issues.
Saturday's report showed 706,000 marriages registered last year — the fewest since 1954 and a sign that birth rates are unlikely to jump dramatically anytime soon.
Japan's total population stood at 125.77 million as of October, according to the ministry. |
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HenryTo
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diesel
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| Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2010 4:56 am Post subject: |
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You would think by now they would learn that they are pushing on a string with monetary policy.... Just send in the clowns I say....
Whatever happened to stock flow consistent macro models?
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat Oct 16, 2010 6:36 pm Post subject: |
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For those who wanna wallow in it, move to japan--and live in a "micro-house":
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/17/world/asia/17japan.html?_r=1&hp
Funny study in opposites: china vs. japan, one is the 800lb gorilla and one is the 90lb weakling--yet the economies are the same, if that!
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Tue Oct 05, 2010 7:33 pm Post subject: |
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Bridgewater on the BoJ's purchases:
| Quote: | | Tuesday's BoJ announcement that they would pursue more quantitative easing and extend their asset purchases wasn't a big deal in itself, but contributed to the widening recognition that developed world central bankers will pursue another round of quantitative easing. This followed on Monday's comments by Chairman Bernanke that "economic conditions provide little scope for reducing deficits," and that "premature fiscal tightening could put the recovery at risk," and Tuesday's references by non-voting Fed member Charles Evans that "more large scale asset purchases, namely Treasuries... would have a beneficial effect..." but "much more accommodation than that is probably what's called for." The impact of the BoJ's new announcement will be minimal, as the amount was not that significant - 5 trillion yen, or 1% of GDP, - and will only include purchases of commercial paper and other short-term assets. The market response was much more pronounced and occurred mainly during US hours, and was more indicative of an expansion of dollar liquidity. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Oct 05, 2010 8:33 am Post subject: |
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Another door to open with the abandonment of the "bank-note rule":
I | Quote: | | n other words, the real significance of today’s news is that BoJ’s purchase of long term government bonds will treated differently from the bonds purchased within the ceiling of banknotes in circulation.. |
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/10/05/360756/boj-says-bye-bye-bank-note-rule/
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Mon Oct 04, 2010 11:18 pm Post subject: |
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Bank of Japan steps up its asset purchases. Yen not reacting much, however. The BoJ needs to try harder--much harder:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-05/boj-steps-up-asset-purchases-cuts-key-rate-to-0-0-1-to-revive-economy.html
| Quote: | By Mayumi Otsuma - Oct 4, 2010 9:51 PM PT
The Bank of Japan pledged to expand its balance sheet by 5 trillion yen ($60 billion), aiming to shore up the nation’s slowing economic recovery.
The central bank will create a 5 trillion yen fund to buy government bonds and other assets, it said in a statement released today in Tokyo. It also lowered the benchmark interest rate to a range of zero percent to 0.1 percent from the previous 0.1 percent target.
U.S. and U.K. central bankers are also debating expansions of their balance sheets as developed nations struggle to sustain recoveries from the deepest postwar recession. The yen tumbled after the announcement.
“The Japanese economy is becoming fragile and warrants drastic monetary easing measures by the central bank,” Seiji Shiraishi, chief economist at HSBC Securities, who predicted a rate cut at today’s meeting, said before the BOJ announcement.
The central bank kept its credit program for banks at 30 trillion yen, and its target for monthly purchases of government bonds at 1.8 trillion yen. |
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Fri Oct 01, 2010 11:30 pm Post subject: |
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Japan readies its 4.6 trillion Yen supplementary budget; discloses US$25 billion in Yen intervention for the month ending September 28, and signals further interventions if the Yen continues to appreciate:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11450130
| Quote: | 1 October 2010 Last updated at 03:07 ET
Japan readies new stimulus moves as economy flags
The Japanese parliament is to debate a supplementary budget expected to contain a further 4.6tn yen ($55bn, £35bn) of stimulus measures.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is expected to announce next week further quantitative easing - debt purchases aimed at increasing the money supply.
The moves come as new data shows the economy continues to suffer.
Core consumer prices fell 1% in August, while industrial production fell a surprise 0.3% and car sales fell 4.1%.
However, there were also some positives in a raft of new data released this week.
Unemployment fell unexpectedly to 5.1% in August, from 5.2% a month earlier.
And household spending rose faster than expected, up 1.7% versus a year earlier, compared with an expected 1.4%.
Suffering exporters
At the heart of Japan's woes is the strong yen, which has gained almost 50% in value against the dollar since mid-2007.
The continuing appreciation of the currency is undermining the competitiveness of Japanese exporters.
Data on Monday showed that exports slowed sharply in August.
The Japanese government intervened in the currency markets in mid-September, buying a reported $25bn and selling yen.
The action briefly achieved its aim of weakening the currency. But recently the yen has again neared its 15-year high of 82.88 yen to the dollar.
"We will take decisive steps from now on as well," said Japan's Prime Minister Naoto Kan, indicating his willingness to make further interventions.
Liquidity trap
The strong yen has also cheapened imports, helping to sustain Japan's persistent deflation. Consumer prices have now fallen for 18 consecutive months.
Japan has been stuck for the last 20 years in what economists call a "liquidity trap" - falling prices, interest rates stuck at zero, but savings rates remaining stubbornly high.
The Bank of Japan is under pressure to take further steps to ease monetary conditions.
Interest rates are already at 0.1%, and cannot be cut further, so the central bank must use unconventional tools such as quantitative easing - buying up Japanese debt.
Mr Kan also wants the Bank of Japan to act, as this may take the pressure off the yen.
Much of the recent yen strength is actually to do with dollar weakness - the US has also cut rates virtually to zero and faces the risk of sinking into a liquidity trap just like Japan.
With the US Federal Reserve hinting at a new round of quantitative easing, the prime minister wants his own central bank to respond in kind.
The Bank of Japan's next policy meeting is on 4-5 October.
Borrowing limits
Despite the additional spending measures in the supplementary budget, Mr Kan has made clear that Japan must cut its budget deficit in the medium term.
Japanese government debt has risen to about twice the size of its economy during the last two decades of poor growth.
"If the current fiscal situation is left alone, it will be unsustainable at some point," said the prime minister before the budget debate.
Mr Kan lost an upper house election in July because of his plan to raise sales tax, and has now called on opposition parties to co-operate over tax reforms.
However, despite the call to action over the budget deficit, the government has had no difficulty financing itself.
Thanks to the high savings of Japanese households, Tokyo can borrow for 30 years at less than 2% interest. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Sep 28, 2010 4:37 pm Post subject: |
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Rare earths
Published: September 28 2010 09:33 | Last updated: September 28 2010 15:32
| Quote: | You can almost hear the yelps from day traders. In the four days since reports emerged of restricted rare-earth shipments between China and Japan, shares in Hong Kong-listed China Rare Earth Holdings have leapt almost 40 per cent. Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare Earth, the Shanghai-listed behemoth satisfying two-fifths of world demand, is now up 156 per cent year-to-date, against a benchmark down by a fifth.
It has taken a falling-out over a fisherman for markets to appreciate the full implications of China’s control over the market for metallic elements used in smartphones, hybrid cars and precision weapons. China doesn’t have a particularly strong grip on rare-earth reserves; its 36m tonnes are only slightly more than the US (13m) and the former Soviet Republics (19m) put together. But after three decades of investment in upstream mining and downstream processing, steadily driving global competitors out of business, what it does have is 97 per cent of last year’s 124,000-tonne production. China has repeatedly toyed with export tariffs and quota cuts since 2006. Now, with an outright infringement of sales to its biggest customer, resource-poor Japan, it appears to be going one step further. |
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