JAPAN

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Mar 03, 2006 12:25 am Post subject: JAPAN

Core rate up .5%; 3 in a row:

"Mitsubishi UFJ Securities senior strategist Naomi Hasegawa said remarks this morning by Prime Minister Junichi Koizumi fueled conjecture that the central bank will soon end its present policy.

'[Changes in] consumer prices are coming in above zero and we are seeing signs of getting out of deflation,' Koizumi told a parliamentary committee.

His comments were his most positive yet on recent indications that the economy is winning its battle with falling consumer prices. Previously, Koizumi had insisted that it was too soon to say that the economy was coming out of deflation."

Bonds and stocks were short going in. End-of-day showed resiliency, (complaceny?)

Hey Henry, Devil's advocate: with Japanese debt at a Godzilla-sized 160% GDP on the worlds fastest aging population (and most afraid of foreign workers) do they have any choice BUT to reflate their way out? And politicians want a decade for "reforms."

An end to quantiative easing may be announced at the end of Japanese Fiscal Year--but this could take a long, long time to play out. Markets 1st "verdict."
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Sun Jan 29, 2012 10:27 am Post subject:

Japanese giving up on industry they once owned, LCD tv. This should be coming into effect about now:

http://www.electronicsweekly.com/Articles/31/08/2011/51775/hitachi-sony-toshiba-consolidate-lcd-operations.htm

If that's what "Innovation Network Corporation" is I don't want any more of it. After the autos, clearly writhing over Yen power (won/yen in particular)--but for "energy free" island amidst record energy prices there is something gained. If only the populace had something to do.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2012 12:57 pm Post subject:

.....with 40m in Tokyo alone, I can see why.

Meanwhile there seems to be no limit on Japan's role as world whipping boy--can't even win for loosing: Nomura marks the worst contrarian play on a real asset...of all time?

HenryTo · Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2012 11:25 pm Post subject:

Japan's population falls by most since WWII.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-02/japanese-population-drops-most-since-world-war-ii-after-quake.html

HenryTo · Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 1:26 pm Post subject:

OECD projects Japan's public debt to hit 230% of GDP by 2013.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/28/japan-economy-oecd-idUST9E7MA01120111128

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2011 2:36 am Post subject:

Rumors of yet another downgrade:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/s-p-says-may-be-right-it-s-closer-to-japan-downgrade-as-finances-worsen.html

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2011 7:57 am Post subject:

....As much as any banking story, that's the story of Nomura getting "the hell out" of japan. This pressure is across the board.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Tue Nov 22, 2011 11:33 pm Post subject:

Nomura deleveraging:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/982444d6-150d-11e1-b9b8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1eV8UD7Wh

HenryTo · Posted: Mon Nov 21, 2011 1:02 am Post subject:

Voices against the JGB getting (slightly) louder:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-21/japan-may-be-next-europe-ex-finance-chief.html

HenryTo · Posted: Sun Oct 30, 2011 9:11 pm Post subject:

Bank of Japan (finally) intervenes:
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Japan intervenes to tame high-flying yen ahead of G20

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan intervened to weaken the yen after the currency hit a record high against the dollar on Monday, saying it acted to counter speculative moves that did not reflect the health of the Japanese economy.

The dollar spiked after the intervention as much as 4 percent past 79 yen from around 75.65 yen. The dollar touched a record low of 75.31 yen earlier on Monday.

Finance Minister Jun Azumi said Tokyo stepped into the market for the second time in less than three months on its own at 10:25 a.m. local time (0125 GMT) and would continue to intervene until it was satisfied with the results.

"I have repeatedly said that we would take decisive steps against speculative moves in the market," Azumi told an ad-hoc news conference.
Azumi would not comment on the size of the intervention, but one trader said the authorities were intervening "quite persistently."

"My sense is that they might not quit very easily," a trader said. The trader added, however, that dollar/yen may start to become heavy at levels above 79 yen.

Tokyo's second foray into currency markets since its record 4.5 trillion yen selling intervention on August 4, follows weeks of warnings by government and central bank officials that their patience with the currency's strength was wearing thin.

Even though the yen's exchange rate when measured against a trade-weighted basket of currencies and adjusted for inflation is not far from its 30-year average, it has been trading at much stronger levels against the dollar than one assumed by Japanese exporters in their earnings projections.

Last Thursday, acting in part out of concern that the yen's impact on corporate profits could derail Japan's recovery from the March earthquake and tsunami, the Bank of Japan eased its monetary policy by boosting government bond purchases.

But the easing failed to take the pressure off the yen, which continued to climb against the U.S. dollar -- underpinned by investors seeking relative safety in the currency from the European debt crisis.

Yunosuke Ikeda, senior FX strategist at Nomura Securities, said last week's central bank easing and Monday's intervention could be an effective combination.

"It was very good timing. The BOJ has prepared the ground by easing last week. Speculators' yen-buying position has piled up, and intervention is most effective in such cases," Ikeda said.

"This will likely be one-off intervention, but I think the government wants to stop the yen's strength, which is out of sync with gradually improving global economic fundamentals.

"The dollar/yen will unlikely fall back to the record low hit earlier today for some time."

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and Azumi will head to the Group of 20 summit in Cannes, France later this week and Tokyo has been keen to win its international partners' understanding for its problems with the yen.

Azumi said that while Monday's intervention was a solo act he was in a continuous contact with his international partners.

"I have been frequently in contact (with other countries) ... I have always conveyed Japan's stance and interests at senior official levels," he said.
Since September 2010, Japan has now intervened three times on its own and once jointly with other G7 rich nations to weaken the yen. But the effects of past intervention have proved fleeting in the face of steady demand from nervous investors seeking highly liquid and relatively safe assets such as Japanese government bonds.

This has been a source of deepening frustration for Japanese officials, who argue that a yen rally is one problem too many for a nation grappling with a nuclear crisis, a $250 billion post-quake rebuilding effort and ballooning debt.

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Oct 28, 2011 6:28 am Post subject:

"Japanification" of America becoming "institutionalized":

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-27/inside-deutsche-bank-debate-rages-over-america-sliding-into-japan-malaise.html

My answer below but presumably this is something considered worse than the New Normal.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Oct 24, 2011 12:18 pm Post subject:

I'm not alway contrarian: until this gets back to summer balance steer clear of Japan:

http://www.x-rates.com/d/KRW/JPY/graph120.html

With no demographics at its back I'd say that holds for small cap as well.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-20/japan-shipyards-said-to-demand-lower-steel-prices-warn-of-cuts.html
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Oct 14, 2011 7:47 am Post subject:

Those JGB yields adjusted for yen strength give a different picture. Yen is slowly KILLING autos, despite heavy native advantages. Toyota putting squeeze on suppliers and shifting production, honda hasn't had a new driveline in six years! Mazda is stranded and Nissan just plain getting out. Electronics will no doubt not do as badly--but they're starting to like the iPhone over there....another killer app?

Still can't believe the G7 didn't do an intervention two months ago--if only for the sake of doing SOMETHING.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Wed Oct 12, 2011 7:24 pm Post subject:

BCA on the Japanese economy and JGB yields:

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20111011.GIF

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 9:40 am Post subject:

There are advantages owning in the land of cross ownership:

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts?s=%5EGSPC#symbol=^gspc;range=6m;compare=cat+tm;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:16 am Post subject:

Credit Henry for the calling the transitoriness of the easing. But this could be a perfect setup for G7 unified intervention just like the good ol' days. No, not the best course but it's a direct one, free of politicians, in world desperate for leadership. Swiss have shown the way. C'mon team.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!