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Jim Rogers Replies |
HenryTo
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rffrydr
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 Posted: Tue Dec 07, 2010 1:23 pm Post subject: |
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Europe bust:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40556407
I'll buy that.
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HenryTo
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diesel
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| Posted: Mon Mar 22, 2010 3:18 pm Post subject: |
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Jim Rogers starting to put some shorts out.... CNBC
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Jan 20, 2010 10:05 am Post subject: |
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Buffett today: "I've never been more optimistic on future of the United States."
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Jan 20, 2010 9:23 am Post subject: |
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Own SP, own china ( Anyone on the Parker Hannifin (PH - commentary - Trade Now) call Tuesday knows that the good numbers -- and they were very good -- were driven by Asia. In fact, that was really the only strong area for this worldwide manufacturer of heavy industrial parts, save life science.)--but general plan playing out so far:
| Quote: | | ...At the same time, a few weeks ago everyone seemed to agree that the best risk to take was emerging markets: where economic growth is the most visible, as is the excess liquidity growth, thanks to functioning banking systems and exchange rate policies that sometimes force local central banks to print aggressively. Yet, so far this year, the Brazilian Real is down against the US$, Chinese and HK equities are in negative territory, the best performing Asian (and global!) major market is Japan, while the second best performing is the S&P 500. |
GaveK's recent commentary.
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diesel
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| Posted: Wed Jan 20, 2010 12:30 am Post subject: |
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I cant say I share your enthusiasm to that degree although I concede I am not net short either.
I think we will see a shift back into the JPY being the source of the carry going forward which should be supportive of the dollar but I don't expect much of an improvement of the economic situation in the US for now.
China is my preferred hedge at the moment but prefer to play that indirectly via the rogers story....
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 4:44 pm Post subject: |
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| diesel wrote: | | .... your peak civilization bear case? Is there anything you are bullish on? |
Don't mistake me, Diesel, my man: I'd say 2007 was a trough in terms of our civilization. --a "peak" in the financial abstraction we called living. We are embarking upon a brave new path and I'm bullish on america. For the first time since the heady nineties (which were themselves another form of "escape"--a second life) we are going to take some risks--as individuals, as a country. I'm "bullish on america," Diesel. Merrill who?
Likewise all the new entrants to the market economy for whom an economic contraction is perhaps least suffering they've ever faced. This includes much of eastern europe, ireland, chile, and, down the road, india, vietnam....and further still, dare I say it, deepest darkest africa.
I'm short nothing. I'd never short Brasil. I'm looking at Russia and select china wonders and say, in terms of the world economy, that if this global property bust hadn't come along we'd have had to invent it. No, it's not the "pause that refreshes" but it certainly will allow for the long lag in the buildout the world needs.
China will not lapse into revolution and Russia will not launch. But the times of the ten-largest banks, largest company, world's tallest building, monopoly gas supplies and soccer-team playthings will fade with the era. And homes will again become places to live and raise a family---for a long, long time.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 4:18 pm Post subject: |
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Mexico and the SP 
| Quote: | Howard Simons
Chinese Real Estate
1/19/2010 12:49 PM EST
Sham, rising prices per se are not a warning sign of impending doom in this or any other situation. We would need to know the population change in Shanghai, the income changes, the supply of homes and the loss, if any, of existing home supplies to commercial construction and state expropriation, etc.
In addition, while interest rates in China may be low, did they lead to the sort of exotic mortgage structures and lack of credit assessments we saw here? Is there a word in Chinese for "option ARM?"
What are the investment alternatives available to the newly-liquid Chinese citizenry? Outside of stocks and real estate, can they diversify out of the country, and are they discouraged from doing so via a combination of capital controls and the undervalued yuan?
Some of these questions are rhetorical. Official moves to tighten credit have mentioned real estate speculation specifically. Has Bernanke's mea non culpa regarding the role of interest rates on capital asset prices been translated into Chinese, and if so, what was lost in translation? |
Poor Howard, he needs only look at 'em at night. Like cars, the best assets go...unused. But we've seen this cycle before.
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diesel
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| Posted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 3:34 pm Post subject: |
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So let me get this straight.... The US, Eurozone, Japan and now China have peaked i.e. your peak civilization bear case? Is there anything you are bullish on?
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 3:24 pm Post subject: |
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That is one thing in common the china story has with the much ballyhooed japan model, business is flocking to learn the language. Hope Jimmy's kids remember how to throw a baseball after learning those 100,000 character sets 
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HenryTo
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goldbug
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| Posted: Sat Jul 04, 2009 9:46 pm Post subject: There is a gotcha that Jim overlooks for the next few years. |
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Prechter explains why deflation is going to win before inflation becomes a reality:
http://www.tradingstocks.net/html/inflation_deflation_credit_bub.html
Most of the debt in the world is denominated in US dollars. Credit has been expanding since many decades having the effect of currency inflation. When the time comes for the debt to be paid, it will create demand for US dollars. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Jun 17, 2009 7:58 am Post subject: |
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If they build it they will come. The BRIC: This abstraction of a Goldman huckster has become a reality with this week's gathering in Russia. Missing from the communique was any mention of that great yoke on their collective necks, the US dollar.
Indeed, contrary to Jimmy's tireless prognostications for the past 10 years, the dollar-denominated debt of these "emerging" worlds has in fact outperformed their own:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aMTB3dIph.3k
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