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rffrydr
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 Posted: Sun May 13, 2012 12:48 pm Post subject: |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun May 06, 2012 9:16 am Post subject: |
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It's the auto shutdown from '09, more than weather, that's blowing the stats.
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HenryTo
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Location: Los Angeles, California
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| Posted: Sat May 05, 2012 5:31 am Post subject: |
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Bridgewater on the latest jobs report.
| Quote: | | Friday’s employment report suggests that the pace of improvement in labor markets from depressed levels has slowed considerably over the last couple of months. The pace of slowing may be somewhat overstated, as we may now be seeing the negative flip side of the boost to employment from the earlier weather-related distortions, but at least some slowing in labor markets is consistent with the moderation in US growth since March. Despite April’s weakness, employment growth rates of around 1% a year are still about 0.5% faster than growth in the working-age population, so they should over time reduce the slack in labor markets. As a comparison, this pace of improvement is roughly in line with the recovery in labor markets during the last expansion from 2004-2007. Of course, given the much higher level of unemployment, this pace of improvement would still mean that it would take many years for labor markets to normalize. |
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2012 10:19 am Post subject: |
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One of the few dedicated economists out there on the Wall St. clock, Maury Harris. Underscored the bank lending going on during last summer's "depression" and, here, the quality/quantity divide in understated jobs:
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/News/Surveillance/vWRLmlb8zHks.mp3
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Fri Apr 06, 2012 10:31 pm Post subject: |
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Bridgewater on the latest jobs report.
| Quote: | | Friday’s employment report was mediocre, but most evidence still points to healthy employment contributing to the ongoing expansion. Even with the weaker number in March, payroll growth rates have been strong over the last few months, and most other employment-related stats are also showing continued strength. In fact, employment growth rates had been stronger than underlying demand and production growth rates, so some moderation is not necessarily an indication of a broader slowing. Some of the earlier strength and subsequent moderation in employment growth may also be weather-related and technical in nature. With employment growth likely still strong and little evidence of a broader slowdown in US growth, the existing slack is still being used up, even if the pace is a bit slower than earlier in the year. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2012 7:02 pm Post subject: |
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R. Brusca on jobs and complexities of demographics and structural change:
http://robertbrusca.blogspot.com/2012/03/job-growth-is-it-enough-too-much.html
| Quote: | ...The story of labor force participation rates is being re-written and not just in this cycle. Since 1990 there has been a gradual increase in the tendency for labor force participation rates to drop. In 1990 it was just the young and adult men along with all teens. The teen plus adult men’s rate and the adult men’s rate have steadily been shrinking. But the decline for adult men is accelerating in the business cycle. So is the decline for teen and adult men. The teen and adult women rate has been slowing and is now shrinking at an ever faster pace since 1973. Adult women continue to see their participation rate rise, but the pace of that increase has slowed, and slowed sharply. In an all-inclusive time-series format the adult women’s rate is down from its peak.
So there are several kinds of forces that are in play. There are a number of category-specific longer term trends that are in play. But it is also true that some of these effects are intensifying over the most recent cycles.... |
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:54 pm Post subject: |
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Looks like we're about "due"! Of course it's that platform economy keeping those profit margins up high which provides the potential for a rush of hiring--all we need is a good scare 
Going in to today's jobs number was an almost consensus idea that Dec. jobs, flattered as they were by Xmas couriers, might have even been outright "rigged" by the government--this flowed naturally from the "truth" that GDP was all govt. doing; and all that was going to become all she wrote.
All big change begins with a lie. All great building is a bluff (Amazon earnings 1999 to get tacky). And it is this very anger at being cheated, this hostility of being forced to live the lie, that they will "cover" all the way up.
And then they'll xxx all the way to the credit union. 
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HenryTo
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Tue Jan 31, 2012 1:46 pm Post subject: |
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The current big US exports: Higher education (accepting foreign Asian students in lieu of domestic Asian Americans); and selling US Green Cards for $500,000 a pop.  |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Jan 31, 2012 5:05 am Post subject: |
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Don't forget when you talk savings in America you're talking home-and-hearth. In the Gelded Age we had MEW...now, we have 12mo foreclosures and jingle mail
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Tue Jan 31, 2012 12:06 am Post subject: |
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Bridgewater on US income growth (or the lack thereof).
| Quote: | | For the last two years, households have generally increased their spending faster than their incomes by reducing their savings rates. The December income and spending report was a break from this pattern, as spending growth rates weakened, income growth rates improved, and the savings rate ticked higher. Spending growth rates can’t outpace income growth rates indefinitely, and despite the uptick in December, income growth rates remain weak. While payroll growth is now above average, wage growth has continued to weaken. The share of national income that workers are receiving through compensation is at secular lows due to a combination of cyclical factors such as high unemployment rates and secular factors that have been in place for many years such as increasing competition from workers in emerging markets. The share of national income going to corporate profits is at secular highs, but companies are retaining a significant share of profits (i.e. they are saving), so this money is not flowing back to the economy. In addition, fiscal pressures remain a drag on income growth due to the weakness in direct government spending, lower transfers, and rising taxes. Incomes may improve very gradually as cyclical conditions recover and the pace of fiscal cuts slows, so healthy growth rates will likely continue to require additional declines in household savings. |
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
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