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rffrydr
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 Posted: Fri Jul 07, 2006 8:57 am Post subject: JOBS JOBS JOBS |
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We got goldilocks...and down. Retail looses again, minus 7000. BOJ, ECB and China all tightening within the month--all in the context of 3M guiding lower.
Hourly earnings keep getting underestimated and tracking inflation--which is moving higher. Is this where it begins? see "stagflation" below.
RUT:SPX continues to pay. Brave souls who want a little leverage and sell the emini futures at 1.65 SP/ 1 Russell ratio. --or keep the .65 short. shhh
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Mar 28, 2010 10:17 pm Post subject: |
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Crazy, hunh? I just wouldn't be short now, or through the spring. If you're pessimistic buy the eurodollar intereste rate forward on the (a) third month's of job gains. If you're optimistic....well, you're in.
I think we withstand this "tightening mood" again. Doubt we can handle three. A rising curve is alright--in parallel. Autos blow through no matter.
Otherwise use rate scares to get into some laggards, CMRE, big banks, gas plays, mexico, highly collaterized regionals, pinan farina, some mortgage instruments.... and watch out for a disconnect with china.
I'd looking for some world separation, Port. and China notwithstanding. The un-hyped world bonds might be better if you gotta be there. Still lot o'money in A corporates and German Bonds looking for greener pastures. If China's holding back treasury purchases that's all they can do...hold back.
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diesel
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| Posted: Sun Mar 28, 2010 4:21 am Post subject: |
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I'm as confused as ever but count me in going forward... Ive got my US dollars and stocks ready for the Masters "April" setback followed by your buy in May and go away... If only it could be this easy...
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat Mar 27, 2010 7:40 pm Post subject: |
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So next friday stands to be quite a mark-up. What will be the reaction? Disbelief is to be expected--it defines turns, even late ones. It probably won't change many opinions and, I'm guessing the Census component will draw plenty of ridicule. This will continue into the summer as "we have to wait for the government to get out of the way to see what's real." Sound familiar? That's practically a top-ten song by now. --And it's true.
And it's false. While ideological economists entangle themselves in untangling this knot the public's depression will concede something, even if only to the spring. More so after the bad bad winter. Three months of 200K+ and Business's bottomless well of labor will suddenly look shallow. And like all great "lies" the prophecy will be self-fulfilling.
Do we rally.....no, then, yes...then maybe no....then yes. Rate's will be pressed but this should create buys in the FFnds curve (it comes naturally leveraged). Financials will be most confused---but then, of course rally. Of course. China's weakness will exacerbate (yes, we still set their money policy) and we'll enjoy a period of reversed de-coupling.
The question will become whether the world's realized new efficiencies and basic goods production that will allow steady growth. Shop local will be an operative metaphor (proctectionism some may call it) A savings culture here should do the trick. Perhaps we have seen Peak Surplus?
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat Mar 20, 2010 7:36 am Post subject: |
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Look for the new permanent temporary worker to emerge from this cycle in light of healthcare rigidities, "reform" or no, combined with a tempered globalized outlook. 2 and 20hrs vs. 1 and 40hrs with the computer as the "middleman." Of course that trend is already here but we'll soon be referring to this new normal. --That is until DNA mapping and complete privacy breakdowns undermines the very notion of "insurance" and forces a national medical policy.
A couple of implications of this are a disconnect between the jobs numbers and retail sales; and the rise of medical tourism--mexico, thailand. And, importantly for the market, the first real embrace of risk since the 1990's.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2010 8:24 am Post subject: |
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The Manpower Global Survey released this week:
| Quote: | · The Manpower survey shows employers in 27 of 36 countries and territories expect some positive hiring activity in the second quarter, while those in eight are reporting negative hiring expectations - an improvement in comparison to the 18 countries and territories reporting negative outlooks last year at this time. Employers in 23 countries and territories are reporting stronger year-over-year outlooks, with those in India, Brazil, Taiwan, Peru, Costa Rica, Australia and Singapore noting the strongest job prospects. Hiring plans are weakest in Italy, Spain and Ireland. Employers in Panama were surveyed for the first time this quarter and report upbeat hiring plans for the next three months.
· In the Asia Pacific region, hiring plans are strongest in India and Taiwan, with Taiwanese employers reporting their strongest hiring plans since the Manpower survey began there in 2005. With the exception of Japan, where employers again report the region's only negative Net Employment Outlook, hiring expectations are considerably stronger compared to a year ago in all countries and territories. Job prospects also improve quarter-over-quarter in five countries and territories.
· "Manpower India is indicating strong demand in the Telecom sector as new players are entering the market, resulting in wage arbitrage and forcing employers to offer more incentives to retain top talent," said Joerres. "The notable strength in the Taiwan market is being fueled by strong demand in the Finance/Insurance/Real Estate sector, where nearly half of all employers surveyed expect to add staff in the quarter ahead. At the same time, job prospects continue to strengthen in China, particularly in the Services sector where employers are reporting the strongest hiring intentions in nearly three years."
· Of the 18 countries surveyed in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region, hiring expectations are mixed with employers in 10 countries reporting positive hiring activity for the quarter ahead. Compared to three months ago, hiring plans improved in eight EMEA countries and in eight where year-over-year comparisons can be made. Hiring activity in the region is expected to be strongest in Poland, South Africa, Norway and Sweden and weakest in Italy and Spain.
· "We're not yet seeing signs that the European labor market has turned the corner, but the good news is most employers intend to keep hiring at the same pace or above compared to three months ago," said Joerres. "Hiring expectations among Europe's Manufacturing employers have improved in 11 countries from last quarter, most notably in Poland where 25 percent of employers say they will add to their payrolls. Meanwhile, German job seekers can expect fewer opportunities in the quarter ahead, particularly in the Construction sector where 16 percent of employers tell us they will cut staff in the next three months."
· Of the 10 countries surveyed in the Americas region, hiring plans are stronger in comparison to one year ago in all countries where year-over-year data is available and stronger in six countries quarter-over-quarter. Regional hiring plans are again strongest in Brazil, Costa Rica and Peru. At the same time, hiring expectations from U.S. employers remain relatively stable from three months ago but are stronger than those reported in the second quarter of 2009.
· "The outlook continues to slowly improve in the Americas region. U.S. employers are still hesitant to hire for permanent positions, but for five consecutive months we have seen positive signals in temporary staffing data and that's a good sign that demand is slowly picking up," said Joerres. "Optimism in Brazil is due in part to strength in the Finance/Insurance/Real Estate sector, while the national Outlook in Mexico, where 24 percent of employers say they will hire, is bolstered by demand in the Mining sector."
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Mar 10, 2010 4:56 pm Post subject: |
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We are deeper into this...and nearer to "the end" than most realize.
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