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John Hussman's Latest Replies |
rffrydr
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 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 3:15 pm Post subject: |
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....Oops:
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120123.htm
Struggling mightily...as (literally) with ECRI. For all the "fundamentalism" this kind of analysis proclaims, it remains prisoner to the same kind of volatility as the chart readers. In extremes, "indicies" will only confuse.
You've got to find your quality behind the quantity. "800" wasn't it. My guess is he is forgetting just how much a "bond" so many stocks have become--and just how "productive" slashing jobs and capex can be.
Hussman has been blessed holding McDonalds heavily for the last decade (and managed to monetize NTFLX). You can see why "do no harm" is his first instinct. But now he's got a "hedged fund" so let's see if that doesn't free him up a little--I doubt it.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 8:21 am Post subject: |
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Crash!
Now S&P at 800 for a 10% expected return on "duration" analysis.
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc111212.htm
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Aug 15, 2011 9:32 pm Post subject: |
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"Real Value" at SP 950 which implies 8% for 10years on very beary Hussman while we dream on with frail PE earnings:
http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc110815.htm
But has exited all treasuries and like. There's a trader here after all.
Long reflection on Shumpeter and "credit creation." A "good" loan is not just a loan repaid.
So, what does Hussman risk? Being wrong-ended twice?? No discussion of debt re. re-constituted europe, capital flight back into US....or, even china.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat Feb 12, 2011 9:07 am Post subject: |
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It takes quite a shakeup to shakedown the certainties of mathematics but here it is: behold a "reformed and reinvigorated" Hussman Fund:
| Quote: | | The basic approach falls into the class of what are called "ensemble methods." Our investment positions continue to be driven by our most reliable measures of valuation, market action, sentiment, yield pressures and other variables, but rather than applying a single model over the full span of history, we can proliferate multiple models and evaluate them over numerous samples of history. In that way, we can measure not only risk (the spread between individual returns and the average outcome), but also uncertainty (the possibility that any particular model or view about the world is incorrect). Suppose we look at present market conditions. The more uniform the conclusions are about expected returns, regardless of how we slice the data, the more confidence we can have about investment exposure. In contrast, the wider the dispersion of conclusions about expected returns, the greater uncertainty there is, and the smaller the proportional exposure. In an environment where we remain skeptical that the underlying economic difficulties have vanished, I believe that this is our best response. |
Got caught in the FED/Healthcare (you thought you could hide from finance) "pincers" of 2010 and looking for a flat decade:
| Quote: | | It is crucial to understand that the valuations we observe today are nothing like the valuations of early 2009. At the trough, our estimates of 10-year prospective returns exceeded 10% annually (though our concern at the time was that we could not rule out the sort of sustained follow-through we've seen in other crises). At present, we estimate that the 10-year prospective total return for the S&P 500 is just 3.2% annually. The Shiller P/E is currently about 24. |
But has been long Netflix--which cures a lot of ills. And shows Mr. Hussman is not immune to dreaming.
Sees the economy very fragile and subject to a coming inflation:
| Code: | | So while the surface activity of the U.S. economy has observably improved, it is in the context of an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields market that is vulnerable to abrupt losses, a global financial system that remains subject to strains from sovereign default, a housing market where one-in-seven mortgages is delinquent or in foreclosure, and nearly one-in-four is already underwater with a huge overhang of unliquidated foreclosure inventory still in the pipeline, and a domestic financial system that lacks transparency and may still be slouching toward insolvency. The U.S. economy is progressing on the surface, but it remains a house built on a ledge of ice. |
Failed Policy:
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110124.htm
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Mar 17, 2010 5:42 pm Post subject: |
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I'm sure he'd defend his "sharpe ratio" and many slumbering nights against our dance with the devil. Going against him is his divine stroke of luck being long McDonalds for reasons having nothing to do with its huge RE induced rally. He also threw away much in pocketbook as well as soul loading up on call options--just in case. Record low volatility notwithstanding. I expect to make this same "mistake."
It's ironic that he's currently preaching the end of the yield-curve and crunch-echo it will engender. What kind of bear is that? Ah...so many have foundered on earnings ratios.
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nodoodahs
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| Posted: Wed Mar 17, 2010 3:39 pm Post subject: |
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Hussman's HSGFX return is now behind that of the SPY for the periods:
1 year
2 year annualized
5-7 year annualized
Hussman's HSGFX return is now ahead of the SPY for the periods:
3-4 year annualized
8+ year annualized to inception
If one had simply bought and sold the SPY on 50dma and 200dma crossovers, one would have outperformed Hussman's fund, returning 7.8% annualized since its inception, whereas HSGFX returned 6.6% annualized.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Aug 07, 2009 2:06 pm Post subject: |
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Getting into the act with Health Care....and using Apple to pay for it:
http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=63805
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Apr 08, 2009 9:00 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | With regard to the economy, there is quite a bit of optimism that the recent market advance represents a forward-looking call that the economy will recover in the second half of the year. Indeed, some analysts have noted that year-over-year consumer spending has only declined very slightly, hailing this as evidence that economic concerns are overblown. The difficulty is that consumer spending has never declined on a year-over-year basis, except in this downturn, so that slight decline is actually the worst showing for consumer spending in the available data. Likewise, capacity utilization has plunged to levels seen only in 1974 and 1982, both which were accompanied by far deeper valuation extremes than at present.
I recognize that given the depth of the recent decline, it seems as if stocks must be at once-in-a-lifetime valuations. Unfortunately, this is an artifact of the previous level of overvaluation. The depth of a bear market often has a loose relationship with the extent of the prior bull market (and particularly with the level of valuation of the prior bull), but there is very little relationship between the depth of a bear market and the subsequent bull.
If we assume that the long-term fundamentals of the economy have not been affected in any meaningful way by this economic downturn, then stocks are most likely priced to deliver long-term returns between 9-11% annually over the coming decade, with outlier possibilities of as much as 14% if the market ends the coming decade at historically overvalued levels, and as little as 4% if the market ends the coming decade at historically undervalued levels. Far from being once-in-a-lifetime values, prospective 10-year returns on the S&P 500 are not far from their historical norms here. Stocks are about fairly valued.
The only way that stocks could be considered extremely undervalued here is if we assume that the record profit margins of 2007 (based on record corporate leverage) are the norm, and will be quickly recovered. While we never rule out the potential for surprising strength or weakness in the markets or the economy, the assumption that profit margins will permanently recover to 2007 levels is equivalent to assuming that the past 18 months simply did not happen. |
Mauldin's guest:
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2009/04/06/fighting-recklessness-with-recklessness.aspx
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nodoodahs
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| Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2007 6:30 am Post subject: |
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Another one? I mean, in addition to the one he's been looking for, for years now?
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diesel
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nodoodahs
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| Posted: Wed Apr 25, 2007 12:44 pm Post subject: |
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Retail must either do less, but do it well; or build their own data sources from scratch; or pay up for the professional grade data.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Apr 25, 2007 11:37 am Post subject: |
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That's why to beat the professionals Retail needs to take a step BACK.
That any of us mere mortals can buy our way closer to the market is myth. Did anyone notice how much "real time" quotes lagged the market back in Feb.?
Clearly the US markets are now a subset of global investment. How the mighty have fallen. Two years ago it was grain. Remains to be seen about that economy thing.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Wed Apr 25, 2007 11:27 am Post subject: |
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It will be nice to get a McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index on the Shanghai Composite. For $20 a month, Decisionpoint provides a lot of great stuff but really it is the barebones minimum for anyone who is speculating on index futures or the global markets nowadays.
As always, the professionals will be one step ahead of the retail investor... |
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