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John Mauldin's Latest Commentary Replies |
rffrydr
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 Posted: Wed Nov 16, 2011 7:15 pm Post subject: |
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Mauldin has the euro going down like the Titanic....or F. Scott Fitzgerald to be precise. Lotsa heroic struggle--then Davy Jones' locker.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vST6hVRj2A
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:58 am Post subject: |
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| HenryTo wrote: | Yes, if only he could reconcile his views on accelerating technology with his bearish views on the OECD economies - and then somehow integrate those together to come up with a timeline on how to invest, etc.
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Well he's done it: John Mauldin on the roaring 20's--then and later:
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/pdf/mwo082710.pdf
For all the interest in P/E ratios there's no discussion of when these are historically high/low....low inflation/high inflation. And obviously just what constitutes an "earning" in this mark-to-market platform world of ours is a topic for newsletters to come.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2010 4:48 pm Post subject: |
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Yes, if only he could reconcile his views on accelerating technology with his bearish views on the OECD economies - and then somehow integrate those together to come up with a timeline on how to invest, etc.
I am still of the opinion that the market (while it's currently upward biased) will be mired in a giant trading range for the next few years. Sometime in the 2012 to 2015 timeframe, I expect the next secular bull market to begin. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2010 8:46 am Post subject: |
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So finally some light in our maudlin Mr. Mauldin.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sat Mar 06, 2010 11:55 pm Post subject: |
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John Mauldin's notes on his 7-day session at the Singularity University. This is a must-read:
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/article.asp?id=mwo030610
| Quote: | The theme of the conference was accelerating technology. Things are going faster and faster. I had a thought. Our bodies can take only so much acceleration before we pass out. Will an increasingly fast world have the same effect on our minds? Is there a limit to how much change we can adapt to? Just a question; not sure of the answer.
Greg Papadopoulos, who is the Chief Technology Officer of Sun Microsystems, gave us his thoughts on the breakthroughs that are likely to happen and will change the world as we know it. New approaches to energy efficiency are on the horizon in 5-10 years. We will see a major breakthrough in memory, which will make the ability to remember (store) things really cheap. He speculated that there will be a new energy technology that will come out of left field to completely change the energy equation. By the way, this prediction showed up several times, from a variety of speakers. (I must admit that is also my personal prediction as well.) Greg thinks we will have silicon photonics by 2020 (think faster, more powerful computers). Quantum computing is way out there, but biocomputing may be here in the mid to late 2020s.
Steve Jurvetson, the #1 most influential geek (according to Wired, I think) simply blew us away. I would like to tie him to a chair for five hours and find out why he invested the billions of dollars in the scores of companies he has helped launch. He is focusing on clean tech, as is a lot of Silicon Valley. He sees 5,000 business plans a year. He talks about how we are soon in for Perpetual Future Shock. There are 6 x 10 to the 21 microbes in the ocean. There are microbes that only exist in certain parts of the ocean. We have only begun to explore the world. It is going to take a long time to switch to renewables. Maybe by 2030. He is blown away by how many incredible ideas there are. This is a guy who did his EE major at Stanford in 2.5 years and was #1 in his class. Intimidatingly smart. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:13 pm Post subject: |
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Going off the deep-end in Japan:
| Quote: | .... Yields on AAA German, French, US, and Canadian bonds will slither back down for a while in a fresh deflation scare. Exit strategies will go back into the deep freeze. Far from ending QE, the Fed will step up bond purchases. Bernanke will get religion again and ram down 10-year Treasury yields, quietly targeting 2.5pc. The funds will try to play the liquidity game yet again, piling into crude, gold, and Russian equities, but this time returns will be meagre. They will learn to respect secular deflation.
Weak sovereigns will buckle. The shocker will be Japan, our Weimar-in-waiting. This is the year when Tokyo finds it can no longer borrow at 1pc from a captive bond market, and when it must foot the bill for all those fiscal packages that seemed such a good idea at the time. Every auction of JGBs will be a news event as the public debt punches above 225pc of GDP. Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii will become as familiar as a rock star.
Once the dam breaks, debt service costs will tear the budget to pieces. The Bank of Japan will pull the emergency lever on QE. The country will flip from deflation to incipient hyperinflation. The yen will fall out of bed, outdoing China's yuan in the beggar-thy-neighbour race to the bottom. By then China too will be in a quandary. Wild credit growth can mask the weakness of its mercantilist export model for a while, but only at the price of an asset bubble. Beijing must hit the brakes this year, or store up serious trouble. It will make as big a hash of this as Western central banks did in 2007-2008. |
See "JAPAN" on how aging population is natural stabilizer in recessionary times and how much the debt is built in.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Nov 29, 2009 9:43 am Post subject: |
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Behold....a green shoot:
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/pdf/mwo112809.pdf
Thanksgiving usually offers up time for reflection. Mauldin powered through even with Dubai dragging at his feet. It took dispare to find the optimism. See "Paradox of Thrift" below.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 9:01 pm Post subject: |
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Mauldin believes we had a choice. 
The Present Contains All Possible Futures
Like teenagers, we as a US polity have made a number of bad choices over the past decade. We allowed banks to overleverage and, in the case of AIG (and others), sell what were essentially naked call options of credit default swaps, based on their firm balance sheets, far in excess of their net worth; and that put our entire financial system at risk. We gave mortgages to people who could not pay them, and did so in such large amounts that we again brought down the entire world financial system to the point that only with staggering amounts of taxpayer money was it brought back from the brink of Armageddon. We assumed that home prices were not in a bubble but were a permanent fixture of ever-rising value, and we borrowed against our homes to finance what seemed like the perfect lifestyle. We did not regulate the mortgage markets. We ran large and growing government deficits. We did not save enough. We allowed rating agencies to degrade their ratings to a point where they no longer meant anything. The list is much longer, but you get the idea.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 9:25 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Let me tell a personal story to illustrate the problem. In 1976 I was a young entrepreneur, working as a print broker. There was a severe paper shortage at the time. I borrowed $10,000 from my friendly personal banker and used it to buy traincar loads of paper. Things went well. I got a lot of business just because I had access to paper in my warehouse. But my bank ran into trouble and the regulators forced them to reduce their loan book. They cancelled any loan they could. I politely suggested that they stick to the terms of our agreement (otherwise known as telling them to go pound sand). When they realized that I did not intend to destroy my business to help their balance sheet, they called my mother (I swear this is true - I was 26 at the time) and told her they would ruin my credit if she did not pay the loan for me. They so worried her that she actually did so, and then told me afterwards. Maddening.
The point is that a bank or broker in a capital crisis will do what it feels it has to do to get back into balance. Relationships that you thought you had are gone with the wind. And with accountants and regulators requiring a much more vigorous mark-to-market on asset prices, banks are forced to reduce lending of all types. This is going to slow down the US economy. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat Jan 05, 2008 12:30 pm Post subject: |
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...the mismatch of labor surveys at turning points being key amoung them:
| Quote: | | There was a loss of 436,000 jobs in the household survey. Unemployment rose to 5%, up from 4.4% last February, and 4.7% last month. Writes Philippa Dunne from The Liscio Report: "Rises of that magnitude are rare; it's 1.6 standard deviations from the mean, and at the 92nd percentile of monthly changes since 1950. They're even rarer outside recessions; of the 55 rises of 0.3 point or more, just 18 have been in expansions, and most of those were either close to recessions or in jobless recoveries. In fact, the last time we saw a 0.3 point rise was in January 2001, two months before the official cycle peak. More than half the rise in unemployment came from permanent job losers." |
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HenryTo
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keppierce
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| Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2007 11:38 am Post subject: |
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| Why don't Congress and the banks change subprime loans over from tracking the Libor to tracking something closer to moves in the fed funds rate? Wouldn't this make cuts more effective in stemming the housing crisis? This would also be more fair to responsible homeowners. The Bush administration seems to be playing a political card with Paulson's subprime relief package, but I see it backfiring and hurting the secondary market for loans even more. |
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2007 11:08 am Post subject: |
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A pretty bearish commentary for this weekend. Also accompanies it with an analogy from a personal experience from his Thanksgiving dinner!
http://www.2000wave.com/article.asp?id=mwo113007
| Quote: | | This current credit crunch has the potential for growing into a full-blown credit crisis, the likes of which we have not seen in the modern world. It is not altogether clear that cutting rates at 25 basis points per meeting is going to do anything to help, if the cost of borrowing does not come down. We are in an entirely different type of crisis than we have ever seen. It is not for certain that the old tools, the fire sprinklers, if you will, will be enough. We may need to adapt to a new, interconnected world. |
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sat Nov 10, 2007 12:50 pm Post subject: |
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Latest commentary from Mr. Mauldin. This one discusses FASB 157, the current write-downs, the dollar, and the Euro-Yen Cross Rate - the latter of which have been discussed in this forum for nearly the past year now.
http://www.2000wave.com/article.asp?id=mwo110907 |
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2007 2:43 pm Post subject: |
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The commentary that rffrydr is referring to:
http://www.investorsinsight.com/otb_va.aspx?EditionID=611
I think there is an opportunty for a long-short fixed income, a relative value fund, or someone like Bill Gross whose funds are all tied to various benchmarks. For the individual investor, though, it is difficult to conclude that either the bond or the stock market is really in "panic mode" just yet, today's decline notwithstanding. |
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