Latest ECRI Weekly Leading Index Readings

[HenryTo]

For some reason, the ECRI doesn't publish weekly press releases anymore on its Weekly Leading Index readings - although one can still get access to the weekly readings via a (free) registration.

For the week ending June 17, 2005, the Weekly Leading Index level is at 133.4 - a growth rate of 0.2% from last year. I will try to update this thread every week from now on.

Hope everyone is having a great Sunday!

Henry

[dash]

Annual ROC readings have progressed steadily from the mid-3s in early March. I had a quick look through the data presented here, which only go as far back as August 2005, and we haven't had any numbers in the 6s until very recently.

[HenryTo]

Week ending 6/8/2007:

WLI = 143.8
Annual ROC = 6.9%

Last week's readings were revised to 143.2 and 6.7%, respectively.

[HenryTo]

Week ending 6/1/2007:

WLI = 142.9
Annual ROC = 6.3%

Last week's WLI reading was revised to 142.5.

[HenryTo]

Week ending 5/25/2007:

WLI = 142.4
Annual ROC = 6.3%

No revisions to last week's numbers.

[HenryTo]

Week ending 5/18/2007:

WLI = 142.4
Annual ROC = 6.4%

Last week's WLI was again revised to 142.6, but this revision did not change the Annual ROC.

[HenryTo]

Week ending 5/11/2007:

WLI = 142.7
Annual ROC = 6.1%

Last week's WLI was revised to 142.6, but this revision did not change the Annual ROC.

[HenryTo]

Week ending 5/4/2007:

WLI = 142.7
Annual ROC = 5.2%

No revision to last week's numbers.

[HenryTo]

Week ending 4/27/2007:

WLI = 142.4
Annual ROC = 4.4%

Last week's numbers were revised to 141.1 and 3.6%, respectively.

[HenryTo]

Week ending 4/20/2007:

WLI = 141.6
Annual ROC = 4.0%

Last week's numbers were not revised. The weak 1Q GDP number is a most probably a reflection of the weak ECRI numbers during August to early September of last year. Assuming that the ECRI numbers will continue to "work" going forward, we should see a rebound in the 2Q GDP numbers (the stock market is certainly discounting such a "reacceleration" scenario).

[HenryTo]

Week ending 4/13/2007:

WLI = 140.4
Annual ROC = 3.6%

Last week's numbers were revised to 140.3 and 3.6%, respectively.

[HenryTo]

Week ending 4/6/2007:

WLI = 140.6
Annual ROC = 3.8%

Last week's WLI number was revised to 140.2. No revision was made to the annual ROC.

[HenryTo]

Week ending 3/30/2007:

WLI = 140.3
Annual ROC = 3.9%

Last week's numbers were revised to 140.5 and 4.0%, respectively.

[rffrydr]

...Yes, though those categories are being blurred (to the extreme in the IBM/India article) and I'm still with Roach on the under-representation of manufacturing--it's my So. Cal. location bias. And the politco he's featured with does well to underscore the big (global) picture.

I also suspected (and posted) those summer cuts would be taken back but am still bearish going into Christmas. This is tied to credit contraction basis the slow burn in Assets. Office property hasn't yet begun. Start looking to places like South Carolina to be on more corporate letter-heads.

For better or worse this is still a quantitative model and judging him on his social skills he's a quant guy. That means he's been burned by human frailty sometime before and doesn't trust his own nature--revealed in his last minute freudian-slip of a "hunch" on the real estate market.

Something inside is telling him that Real Estate HAS to alright--and the cycle will trump "dislocations."

Others, myself included, exaggerate a point to say the opposite: Real Estate (Real Assets) ARE the cycle.

Another question: what good is ten-months warning in a bubble? How much do you loose trying to save 20%? --As a businessman.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[dash]

[rffrydr]

Achuthan interview on Payrolls and the "false" recession posted on Bloomberg.com today.

Note his comments on Globalization.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!