Latest ECRI Weekly Leading Index Readings

[HenryTo]

For some reason, the ECRI doesn't publish weekly press releases anymore on its Weekly Leading Index readings - although one can still get access to the weekly readings via a (free) registration.

For the week ending June 17, 2005, the Weekly Leading Index level is at 133.4 - a growth rate of 0.2% from last year. I will try to update this thread every week from now on.

Hope everyone is having a great Sunday!

Henry

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 8/5/2011

WLI = 127.9
Annual ROC = 1.7%

Last week's WLI was revised to 128.2, while the annual ROC was unchanged.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WLI Slips

August 12, 2011

(Reuters) - A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slid to 127.9 in the week ended August 5 from 128.2 the previous week, originally reported at 128.3 percent.

The index's annualized growth rate slipped to 1.7 percent from 2.1 percent a week earlier.

The index comes after data released Friday showed plummeting consumer confidence but growth in retail sales, adding to the mix of economic uncertainty that has riled markets since the U.S. sovereign downgrade last week.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 7/29/2011

WLI = 128.3
Annual ROC = 2.1%

No revisions to last week's readings.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WLI Ticks Up

August 05, 2011

(Reuters) - A measure of future U.S. economic growth increased in the week ended July 29, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 128.3 that week from 127.6 the previous week.

The index's annualized growth rate edged up to 2.1 percent from 2.0 percent a week earlier.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 7/22/2011

WLI = 127.6
Annual ROC = 2.0%

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WLI Rises

July 29, 2011

(Reuters) - A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose slightly to a two-week high in the latest week while a gauge of annualized growth climbed to a four-week high, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 127.6 in the week ended July 22, the highest since July 8, from 127.4 the previous week, originally reported at 127.5 percent.

The index's annualized growth rate rose to 2.0 percent, the highest reading since June 24, from 1.6 percent a week earlier, which was revised from 1.7 percent.

The numbers came after data released Friday showed weaker than expected second quarter GDP growth and a sharp downward revising of first quarter growth, heightening fears of a prolonged economic downturn.

Consumer sentiment also fell in July, as U.S. politicians continue to wrangle over a deal to raise the debt ceiling before the federal government runs out of money to pay its bills on Tuesday, deepening concerns over potential shocks that could jeopardize the fragile recovery.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 7/15/2011

WLI = 127.4
Annual ROC = 1.6%

No revisions to the 7/8/2011 readings.

[dash]

Here's a nice summary of the US economy in slide format:http://modeledbehavior.com/2011/07/17/economic-update-slides/

The big questions remain: is the housing market stabilizing or even recovering? When will unemployment start to ramp down? Have US housholds repaired their balance sheets?

Housing starts continue to seriously lag household formation. Buffett has suggested recently that this imbalance will lead to a recovery in housing. True to form, he didn't say when exactly except that this was a 2012/2013 story not a long-term thing. Residential construction has fallen to a record low of 2% of GDP.

In terms of household balance sheets, I notice that a lot of the boost in bank's Q2 earnings (almost half for Citicorp) came from releasing reserves. Sounds like consumers are begining to be able to finance debt from disposable income. Personal income tax withholding is up 15% YoY.

So my answers to those questions are: yes, don't know, yes.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 7/8/2011

WLI = 128.4
Annual ROC = 1.7%

Last week's WLI was revised to 127.3 while the annual ROC was revised to 1.7%.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WLI Rises

July 15, 2011

(Reuters) - A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a six-week high, while the index's annualized growth rate remained at last week's 28-week low, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 128.4 in the week ended July 8, the highest since May 27, from 127.3 the previous week, originally reported at 127.6.

The index's annualized growth rate remained constant at 1.7 percent, where it has held for the last two weeks, though last week's figure was revised down from 1.8 percent.

The rate stands at its lowest point since Dec. 17, 2010.

The index rose as data released Friday revealed a two-month contraction in New York manufacturing through July, underscoring fears that the tepid pace of recovery may continue.

Other data out Friday revealed that U.S. core inflation had risen more than expected in June, decreasing the chance of a new monetary stimulus since the Federal Reserve's $600 billion bond-buying scheme ended last month.

[rffrydr]

Achutuan was on bloomberg today: he's focused on the Long Term Index. It comes without a stockmarket component and turned down before tsunami and arab spring--but not before our winter. He's looking for a sad second half. It also turned down before the weekly--which I'm not sure I get.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 7/1/2011

WLI = 127.6
Annual ROC = 1.8%

Last week's WLI was revised to 126.3 while the annual ROC was revised to 1.9%.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WLI Ticks Up

July 08, 2011

(Reuters) - A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, while an annualized growth gauge dropped to a 28-week low, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to a three-week high of 127.6 in the week ended July 1 from 126.3 the previous week, originally reported at 126.4.

The index's annualized growth rate fell to 1.8 percent, the lowest since Dec. 17, 2010, from 1.9 percent a week earlier, which was revised down from 2 percent.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 6/24/2011

WLI = 126.4
Annual ROC = 2.0%

No revisions to last week's readings.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WLI Drops

July 01, 2011

(Reuters) - A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell to a 29-week low in the latest week, while an annualized growth gauge dropped to a 27-week low, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 126.4 in the week ended June 24 from 127 the previous week. That is its lowest point since December 3, 2010.

The index's annualized growth rate also dropped, to 2 percent from 2.9 percent a week earlier, reaching its lowest point since December 17, 2010.

"With WLI growth experiencing a pronounced and pervasive decline for 10 straight weeks from its mid-April peak to a 27-week low, the economy is set for a sustained slowdown in growth," said ECRI's Co-founder Lakshman Achuthan.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 6/17/2011

WLI = 127.0
Annual ROC = 2.9%

Last week's WLI was revised to 127.7 while the annual ROC was revised to 3.6%.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WLI Falls
June 24, 2011

(Reuters) - A measure of future U.S. economic growth dropped slightly in the latest week, while an annualized growth gauge dropped to its slowest rate since December, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 127.0 in the week ended June 17 from a revised 127.7 the previous week, originally reported at 127.8.

The index's annualized growth rate fell to 2.9 percent from 3.6 percent a week earlier, which was revised from 3.7. It was the slowest rate since the week of December 3, 2010.

The lower score came as U.S. durable goods purchases rose more than expected in May, according to data released on Friday.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 6/10/2011

WLI = 127.8
Annual ROC = 3.7%

Last week's WLI was revised to 127.6, while the annual ROC was unchanged.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Soft-patch not a blip
Investors Business Daily
June 17, 2011

Federal Reserve head Ben Bernanke and many analysts say the economy will emerge from its current soft patch in the second half of the year as supply disruptions from Japan's disaster ease and energy prices fall.

But the Economic Cycle Research Institute, a respected independent forecaster, begs to differ.

ECRI's long leading indicator of global industrial growth suggests a slowdown has just begun. Also, the annualized growth rate of its leading U.S. index has fallen for seven straight weeks, pointing to weaker growth ahead,

"Our forecast goes directly against the popular view that growth will rebound in the second half after a brief soft patch," said ECRI managing director Lakshman Achuthan.

ECRI, which has a good record of detecting changes in the business cycle, isn't predicting a recession. But, Achuthan said, "This throttling back in global industrial production growth is a slowdown that will persist for at least a couple of quarters."

Furthermore, he added, "The slowdown is not contained in the industrial sector, but rather it is going to spread out into the broader economy."

Industrial output has slowed in the U.S., Europe and China vs. year-ago levels, raising worries about a sector that has fueled the global economic recovery.

The Philadelphia Fed's regional manufacturing index unexpectedly sank 11.6 points in June to -7.7, the worst reading since July 2009. That followed a negative reading in the New York Fed's regional gauge on Wednesday.

The Fed and other economists say it's all just a blip. Oil prices spiked on Mideast and North Africa unrest. Japan's March earthquake and tsunami crippled the world's No. 3 economy, leading to global parts shortages for cars, electronics and more.

But Japan's factories are reviving while energy prices have tumbled from May's peaks, giving consumers more money to spend.

That should offset fiscal tightening and the end of the Fed's $600 billion Treasury buying program.

IHS Global Insight sees a 3.5% growth pace in the second half, up sharply from the first half's estimated 1.9%. The Fed expects full-year growth of 3.1%-3.3%.

"We can debate about when growth picks up, but our view is that growth will pick up," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight.

Along with expected gains in consumer and business spending, the weak dollar should fuel exports, said Gus Faucher, a macroeconomist at Moody's Economy.com, which sees second-half growth of 4%.

However, the U.S. has topped 3.7% GDP growth just once in this recovery — Q4 2009's 5.1%.

"There's still a significant amount of pent-up demand out there," Faucher said.

Yet ECRI's long leading index of global industrial production — which tracks long-term drivers in some 20 countries — says otherwise. The indicator peaked at 0.7 in August 2010, predicting a slowdown in industrial activity starting this summer. The index stood at 0.1 in April, near the lowest since January 1980.

"The long leading index of global industrial production turned down well before events in Japan and the Middle East," Achuthan said. "The slowdown was baked in the cake."

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 6/3/2011

WLI = 127.7
Annual ROC = 4.1%

Last week's WLI was revised to 128.2, while the annual ROC was unchanged.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WLI Drops

June 10, 2011

(Reuters) - A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth fell to its lowest since late January, while its annualized growth rate also slowed to an 18-week low, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 127.7 in the week ended June 3 from 128.2 the previous week, originally reported at 128.3. The latest figure is the lowest since the week of Jan 21.

The index's annualized growth rate slowed to 4.1 percent, its lowest since the Jan 28 week, from 4.9 percent a week earlier.

[rffrydr]

The thing about flatlines is that imagination can carry them any direction:


_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 5/27/2011

WLI = 128.3
Annual ROC = 4.9%

Last week's WLI was revised to 128.4, while the annual ROC was unchanged.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WLI Ticks Down

June 03, 2011

(Reuters) - A measure of future U.S. economic growth weakened in the latest week to its lowest in four months, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged down to 128.3 in the week ended May 27 from a revised 128.4 the previous week, which was originally reported at 128.5. This brought the index to its lowest since the week of Jan. 21.

The index's annualized growth rate slid to its weakest since the week of Feb. 11, slowing to 4.9 percent from 5.0 percent a week earlier.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 5/20/2011

WLI = 128.5
Annual ROC = 5.0%

Last week's WLI was revised to 128.6, while the annual ROC was unchanged.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WLI Slips

May 27, 2011

(Reuters) - A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell slightly in the latest week, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 128.5 in the week ended May 20 from a revised 128.6 the previous week, originally reported at 128.7.

The index's annualized growth rate dropped to 5.0 percent from 5.3 percent a week earlier.