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Latest ECRI Weekly Leading Index Readings
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Author Latest ECRI Weekly Leading Index Readings
HenryTo
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2005 9:25 am    Post subject: Latest ECRI Weekly Leading Index Readings Reply with quote

For some reason, the ECRI doesn't publish weekly press releases anymore on its Weekly Leading Index readings - although one can still get access to the weekly readings via a (free) registration.

For the week ending June 17, 2005, the Weekly Leading Index level is at 133.4 - a growth rate of 0.2% from last year. I will try to update this thread every week from now on.

Hope everyone is having a great Sunday!

Henry

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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 12:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

For the week ending 1/6/2012.

WLI = 121.2
Annual ROC = -8.4%

No revisions to last week's readings.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WLI Rises

A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up in the latest week, though the annualized growth rate eased, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 121.2 in the week ended Jan 6 from 120.2 the previous week.

The index's annualized growth rate slipped to minus 8.4 percent from minus 8.2 percent a week earlier.
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 07, 2012 11:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oops, spoke too soon. For the week ending 12/30/2011.

WLI = 120.2
Annual ROC = -8.2%

Last week's WLI was revised to 120.7, while the annual ROC was unchanged.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WLI Falls

A gauge of future economic activity in the U.S. fell last week, according to the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

The ECRI’s leading index for the week ending Dec. 30 fell to 120.2 from 120.7 in the previous week. The growth rate, which is designed to minimize monthly fluctuations, fell 8.2 percent.


Last edited by HenryTo on Sun Jan 15, 2012 12:05 am; edited 1 time in total
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 5:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, looking for the second derivative (the change in the change) to go decisively positive this week. No US recession here.
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 8:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's a "minus" 7.6%....little "slip" there, Master H.? What might you be really thinking?
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 12:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

For the week ending 12/23/2011. Looking for this indicator to reverse and start moving up this week.

WLI = 120.9
Annual ROC = -7.6%

No revisions to last week's readings.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Weekly Leading Index Falls

A gauge of future economic activity in the U.S. fell last week, according to the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

The ECRI’s leading index for the week ending Dec. 23 fell to 120.9 from 121.3 in the previous week.

The growth rate, which is designed to minimize monthly fluctuations, fell to 7.6 percent.
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 26, 2011 7:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For the week ending 12/16/2011

WLI = 121.3
Annual ROC = -7.7%

No revisions to last week's readings.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WLI Ticks Down

A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged lower in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate also sagged, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 121.3 in the week ended Dec 16 from 122.3 the previous week.

The index's annualized growth rate dipped to minus 7.7 percent from minus 7.5 percent a week earlier.
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 16, 2011 5:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For the week ending 12/9/2011

WLI = 122.3
Annual ROC = -7.5%

Last week's WLI was revised to 122.4, while the annual ROC was revised to -7.7%.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WLI Little Changed

A measure of future U.S. economic growth was little changed in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate improved modestly, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index dipped to 122.3 in the week ended Dec 9 from 122.4 the previous week. That was originally reported as 122.5.

The index's annualized growth rate improved to minus 7.5 percent from minus 7.7 percent a week earlier.
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 09, 2011 9:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For the week ending 12/2/2011

WLI = 122.5
Annual ROC = -7.6%

Last week's WLI was revised to 120.8, while the annual ROC was revised unchanged.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WLI Rises

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, as did the growth rate on an annualized basis, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 122.5 in the week ended December 2 from a revised 120.8 the previous week. It was originally reported at 120.9.

The index's annualized growth rate rose to minus 7.6 percent from minus 7.8 percent a week earlier.
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 02, 2011 12:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For the week ending 11/25/2011

WLI = 120.9
Annual ROC = -7.8%

Last week's WLI was revised to 122.2, while the annual ROC was revised to -7.4%.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WLI Falls

A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index dropped to 120.9 in the week ended Nov 25 from a revised 122.2 the previous week, originally reported at 122.3.

The index's annualized growth rate worsened to minus 7.8 percent from minus 7.4 percent a week earlier, which was revised from minus 7.3.
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 25, 2011 4:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For the week ending 11/18/2011

WLI = 122.3
Annual ROC = -7.3%

Last week's WLI was revised to 122.0, while the annual ROC was revised to -7.8%.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WLI Ticks Up

A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate continued to improve from low levels, a research group said on Wednesday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 122.3 in the week ended Nov 18 from 122.0 the previous week. That was originally reported as 122.1.

The index's annualized growth rate gained to minus 7.3 percent from minus 7.8 percent a week earlier, its fourth week of gains.
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 18, 2011 9:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For the week ending 11/11/2011

WLI = 121.8
Annual ROC = -7.9%

No revisions to last week's readings.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WLI Falls

A measure of future U.S. economic growth was little changed in the latest week, but the annualized growth rate continued to improve, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index inched down to 122.1 in the week ended Nov 11 from 122.3 the previous week.

The index's annualized growth rate gained to minus 7.8 percent from minus 8.5 percent a week earlier.
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 11, 2011 3:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For the week ending 11/4/2011

WLI = 122.3
Annual ROC = -8.5%

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WLI Rises

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to an eight-week high in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate also improved, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index inched up to 122.3 in the week ended Nov 4 from 122.1 the week before.

The index's annualized growth rate gained to minus 8.5 percent from minus 9.4 percent a week earlier.
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 11, 2011 3:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For the week ending 10/28/2011

WLI = 122.4
Annual ROC = -9.4%

Last week's WLI was revised to 121.2, while the annual ROC was revised to -10.1%.
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smile
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 29, 2011 4:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

smile wrote:
rffrydr wrote:
Here he is in no unequivocal terms declaring "the recession," today.

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/News/Surveillance/vEVSaoh5P.qM.mp3

Achutan was wrong in '08 (and did a clever shuffle before it was too late); learning from that he wisely stood against his own index which was wrong summer '10, and he's finally gonna be called out here, on his big call. The main double-dip is in business sentiment (probably loosing the faith in their blessed Republicans as much as anything else). What does worry me is the confidence surveys showing public giving up on the future. That's downright un-american. But that can certainly drag us down (note that gambling was down last quarter).

Housing is our built-in boom/bust, and at this point we can't get hurt falling out of the bottom floor. And if official unemployment approaches his double-digits debt will start exploding. Either way we walk out standing up.

If it is 1937 we should be weeks away from a brief buy window. I'm sticking to Aug 8 lows, but the break of that low by the many materials stocks, which I have not been bullish, and china stocks (which I've been bearish since 2008); and volatility in tech, certainly has me on the spot.

Bring it on Twisted Evil


________________

I'm with you dog,

I think he will be wrong on this call - his own indicators are skewed by what is going on in the stock market - which is the uncertainty surrounding Euromess. I'm sticking with the Geithner/Cramer interview script where we got the hint - take it or leave it - privately the big guns are banking and standing behind the Eurozone and will not see a Lehman type failure happen on their watch - in this case substitute Lehman with the PIIGS - They will come up with their own version of TARP - it may be a little messy getting there with 17+ voting

will a structured default occur - I can't answer that but if the bazooka they take out via EFSF is not levered up properly it could happen.

Remove the above Euromess - and ECRI's indicators will flip - eventually Wall Street climbs the wall of worry anyway - after maybe testing the rffrydr bottom at 1100 - which if we break could be quite nasty - the test could come as early as Monday.

Besides the Bernanke is on record saying he will step in just like for QE2 if the d word (deflation) appears. I'm no fan of QE2 but it served its purpose till the unintended consequences blew us up.

+ Acuthen even states in that interview that what he is attempting to predict does not coincide with the standard definition of a recession - so what's his point - no consecutive 2 qtrs of neg. gdp growth but it will feel worse than a recession - ??????????

++ plus looking at the 2nd derivative of ECRI growth the numbers this year are not as bad as last year from April '10 till Nov '10 when the ECRI #s flipped and went pos. - We have QE2 lite still in effect and the twist operation - if politicians can put aside their nonsense and structure policy to let those responsibly and consistently paying their mortgage on time and needing a refi - but can't because they are underwater. End game is strengthening balance sheets. Perry is stupid - implying an integrity issue where there is none. Hope the Repubs can see thru that losers BS. if not they deserve what they get.

+++ heard Kudlow this evening say he has a source that said something to the effect of the fix in in to more than cover the mess in Euromess.

- on the minus side looking ahead to 12/21/2012 the end of the Mayan "Long Count" calendar - who cares about a measly 2 qtr slowdown Smile


========

I'm waiting on Lakshman Achutan to say he was wrong about US tipping into recession. No big deal no one is perfect. In fact if he does say I would have more respect for him not less.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 28, 2011 10:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For the week ending 10/21/2011

WLI = 121.3
Annual ROC = -10.0%

No revisions to last week's readings.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WLI Rises

A measure of future U.S. economic growth picked up in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate rose for the first time in three months, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index gained to 121.3 in the week ended Oct 21 from 120.4 the previous week.

The index's annualized growth rate inched up to minus 10.0 percent from minus 10.1 percent a week earlier.
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