Latest ECRI Weekly Leading Index Readings

[HenryTo]

For some reason, the ECRI doesn't publish weekly press releases anymore on its Weekly Leading Index readings - although one can still get access to the weekly readings via a (free) registration.

For the week ending June 17, 2005, the Weekly Leading Index level is at 133.4 - a growth rate of 0.2% from last year. I will try to update this thread every week from now on.

Hope everyone is having a great Sunday!

Henry

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 10/9/2009

WLI = 128.1
Annual ROC = 27.9%

Last week's WLI was revised to 129.1, while the annual ROC was revised to 27.4%.

US Recovery Poised to Trounce Any ObstaclesReuters
October 16, 2009

(Reuters) - A weekly index of future U.S.economic growth edged down in the latest week, but its yearly growth rate rose to a new record high that further suggests signs of a tapering recession, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 128.1 in the week to Oct. 9 from an upwardly revised 129.1 the previous week, which was originally reported as 128.3.

But the index's yearly growth rate climbed to a fresh all-time high of 27.9 percent from 27.4 percent the prior week, which was revised higher from an original 26.1 percent.

The group's data has posted annualized economic growth at record high rates since September. Earlier this year, the growth rate was struggling to dig itself out of deeply negative territory.

"Such a pronounced, pervasive and persistent upswing in the WLI and its components assures that this economic recovery can overcome any obstacles in the months ahead," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan.

The report's yearly growth gains are in step with U.S. industrial production figures released earlier on Friday that suggest the third quarter closed out with surprisingly strong economic growth.

"IP numbers are very much in line with our April forecast that recession would end over the summer," said Achuthan, who has said chances of a double-dip recession are highly unlikely.

This week's index dipped largely due to weaker housing activity, Achuthan said. The growth rate is derived from a four-week moving average, and occasionally moves inversely to the weekly index level.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 10/2/2009

WLI = 128.3
Annual ROC = 26.1%

No revision to last week's WLI, although the annual ROC was revised to 25.0%.

Weekly Leading Index growth at new record high
Reuters
October 09, 2009

(Reuters) - NEW YORK, - As the U.S. economy rebounds from a long-running recession, a weekly leading index of future growth released on Friday showed the annualized growth rate hitting a record high.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 128.3 in the week to Oct. 2 from 127.1 the prior week.

The index's yearly growth rate rose to new all-time high of 26.1 percent in the latest reading, from a revised 25.0 percent the prior week.

"With WLI (Weekly Leading Index) growth rocketing to a new record high, the economic recovery will prove to be far more resilient in coming months than most believe possible," said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI's managing director.

"The risk of a double dip (recession) is very low," Achuthan added.

The index was pushed up by stronger housing activity, he said.

Follow up story...

RECORD STRENGTH? YOU HEARD RIGHT...

NEW YORK, - With the economy still mired in a rut and consumer confidence struggling to rebound, the words “record high” are not something we hear very often (unless, perhaps, in reference to the job market). Which makes the surge in the growth rate of the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s Weekly Leading Indicator, the WLI, all the more impressive. “Rocketing is the word,” said Achuthan in an email.

Contrarian calls are nothing new for ECRI. Back in late 2000, when most Wall Street economists were looking for continued growth in the coming year, ECRI was a lone voice in predicting an imminent recession. Time proved them correct. In a recent presentation, managing editor Lakshman Achuthan makes a pretty convincing case for his firm’s recent forecasting record.

Now, with many economists saying a “new normal” of weak consumption and tepid growth is upon us, the folks are ECRI say wrong again:

“Given the growing strength in ECRI’s objective leading indexes, the odds are rising that at least the early stage of this economic recovery will be the strongest since the early 1980s.”

Needless to say, the group does not believe a double-dip is in the cards.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 9/25/2009:

WLI = 127.1
Annual ROC = 25.1%

Last week's WLI was revised to 127.9, while the annual ROC remains unchanged.

Economic Recovery Far From FragileReuters
October 02, 2009

(Reuters) - An index of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week, but its yearly growth rate climbed to a new record high, indicating a smooth recovery in the near-term, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 127.1 in the week to Sept. 25 from an upwardly revised 127.9 the prior week, which was originally reported as 127.8.

Last week's figure marked a 60-week high.

The index's yearly growth rate rose to new all-time high of 25.1 percent in the latest reading from 24.3 percent the prior week.

"With WLI growth rising to yet another record high, the economic recovery is highly unlikely to falter in the next few months," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan.

Achuthan recently told Reuters that unease over rising unemployment, debt-laden consumers, and fears of a dip in economic growth are typical of recessionary times, and do not necessarily signal roadblocks to recovery.

Last week, Achuthan said current data shows that economic recovery is "far from fragile."

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 9/18/2009:

WLI = 127.8
Annual ROC = 24.3%

Last week's WLI was revised to 126.1, while the annual ROC remains unchanged.

U.S. Economic Recovery is 'Far from Fragile'Reuters
September 25, 2009

(Reuters) - A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth climbed higher in the latest week, while its yearly growth rate reached a new all-time high, reaffirming projections of a brisk, uninterrupted recovery.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to a 60-week high of 127.8 in the week to Sept. 18 from an downwardly revised 126.1 the previous week, which was originally reported as 126.2.

It was the highest WLI reading since July 25, 2008, when it also stood at 127.8.

The index's yearly growth rate rose to a fresh record high of 24.3 percent from last week's high of 22.9 percent.

Last week, ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan told Reuters that the group expects an "unstoppable" recovery with "no relevant roadblocks." Fears over mounting unemployment, debt-laden consumers, and dips in recovery are typical of recessionary times, he said.

"With WLI growth climbing to a fresh record high, the economic recovery is far from fragile," Achuthan said on Friday.

The index rose in the latest week because of stronger housing activity, ECRI said.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 9/11/2009:

WLI = 126.2
Annual ROC = 22.9%

Last week's WLI was revised to 126.0, while the annual ROC was revised to 22.5%.

WLI Growth at Record High
Reuters
September 18, 2009

(Reuters) - A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth rose to a level last seen one year ago, while its annual growth rate hit a fresh record high, feeding hopes of a recovery immune to looming economic threats.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 126.2 in the week to Sept. 11 from an upwardly revised 126.0 the prior week, a figure ECRI originally reported as 125.4.

It was the group's highest index reading since Aug. 29, 2008, when it was 126.3.

The index's annualized growth rate ticked up to a fresh record high of 22.9 percent from an upwardly revised high of 22.5 percent, which was originally reported as 21.3 .

Such a concerted move among all of the index's components suggest an "unstoppable" recovery ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan told Reuters.

Achuthan has recently said that a double-dip recession is highly unlikely, and that an economic turnaround will be stronger than many analysts project.

"We have never wavered on our call precisely because at this stage of the cycle there are no relevant roadblocks," Achuthan said, adding that concerns over mounting unemployment, debt-laden consumers, and dips in a recovery are typical of recessionary times.

"Variations of these fears have existed at this stage of the last 20 business cycle recoveries spanning over a century."

Such a rise in ECRI's WLI growth to a record high "confirms that in the coming months, the economic recovery will surprise a cautious consensus," Achuthan said.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 9/4/2009:

WLI = 125.4
Annual ROC = 21.3%

Last week's WLI was revised to 124.6, while the annual ROC remains unchanged.

U.S. Econ Recovery to be Vigorous Despite Consensus
Reuters
September 11, 2009

(Reuters) - A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth hit a year-high in the latest week, sending its yearly growth rate to an all-time high that points to a more vigorous recovery than consensus has shown.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 125.4 in the week to Sept. 4 from a revised 124.6 the prior week, which was originally reported at 124.7.

It was the highest WLI reading since Sept. 5, 2008, when it stood at 126.0.

The index's annualized growth rate surged to a record high of 21.3 percent from 20.8 the previous week.

"The rise in WLI growth to a record high reinforces our earlier forecast that at least the early stage of the current economic recovery will be more vigorous than the last two," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan.

Achuthan recently told Reuters that a double-dip recession is highly unlikely, and that the United States is poised for a far stronger recovery than many are projecting.

"We expect non-manufacturing employment -- which is where 91 percent of us work -- to be positive by year end," Achuthan said.

"We are talking about recovery that includes jobs growth in the non-manufacturing sector, and we are talking about a recovery that includes increases in consumer spending. So, in spite of the fact that many people look at this recession as being unprecedented and unlike any other, what we're seeing in our indexes is that there are a lot of similarities to previous recessions and recoveries," he added.

This week's index was pushed higher largely to stronger housing activity, according to ECRI.

[rffrydr]

Surprise! Economic indicator Index:


_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 8/28/2009:

WLI = 124.7
Annual ROC = 20.8%

Last week's WLI was revised to 124.3, while the annual ROC remains unchanged.

US Poised for Stronger Recovery than Expected
Reuters
September 04, 2009

(Reuters) - A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, while its yearly growth rate surged to a 38-year high that suggests the recovery is on track.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 124.7 in the week to August 28 from a downwardly revised 124.3 in the previous week, originally reported as 124.4.

The index's annualized growth rate rose to 20.8 percent from 19.6 percent a week earlier. The latest reading was the index's highest yearly growth rate since the week to May 21, 1971, when it stood at 21.3 percent.

"With WLI growth rising to a new 38-year high, U.S. economic growth is poised for a stronger snap-back than most expect," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan.

The index was pulled higher this week by stronger housing activity, he said.

ECRI has predicted that the longest U.S. recession in more than a half-century will end before the summer is out.

Last week, Achuthan said a double-dip recession in the fourth quarter is "out of the question."

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 8/21/2009:

WLI = 124.4
Annual ROC = 19.6%

Last week's WLI was revised to 124.9, while the annual ROC was revised to 17.4%.

WLI: No Double Dip
Reuters
August 28, 2009

ECRI note: All leading indexes are not created equal.

Please recall the mood in April when nobody was seeing a recovery ahead, including the Conference Board Leading Index, which was still falling.

In contrast, in April ECRI was predicting that the recession would end by summer. Please find today's story on the latest Weekly Leading Index update below.


(Reuters) - A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week, though its yearly growth rate surged to a 38-year high that suggests chances of a double-dip recession are slim.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index for the week to Aug. 21 fell to 124.4 from a downwardly revised 124.9 the prior week, which was originally reported at 125.0.

But the index's annualized growth rate soared to a 38-year high of 19.6 percent from a downwardly revised 17.4 percent the prior week, a number which was originally 17.5 percent.

It was the WLI's highest yearly growth rate reading since the week to May 28, 1971, when it stood at 20.5 percent.

"With WLI growth continuing to surge through late summer, a double dip back into recession in the fourth quarter is simply out of the question," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan, reinstating the group's recent warning to ignore negative analyst projections.

He added that the index was pulled down this week due to higher interest rates.

Achuthan has recently projected that the recovery is moving at a stronger pace than any the United States has seen since the early 1980s.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 8/14/2009:

WLI = 125.0
Annual ROC = 17.5%

Last week's WLI was revised to 124.4, while the annual ROC was revised to 14.3%.

Though Analysts Clash, Firm U.S. Recovery at Hand
Reuters
August 21, 2009

(Reuters) - A gauge of future economic growth made steady gains in the latest week, sending its yearly growth rate to a fresh 26-year high and suggesting a strong recovery is already in motion, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to nearly a year-high of 125.0 in the week to Aug. 14 from an upwardly revised 124.4 the prior week, which ECRI originally reported at 123.9.

The index's annualized growth rate ticked up to 17.5 percent after hitting a 26-year high of 14.3 percent last week, which was also revised higher from 13.4 percent.

It was the highest yearly growth rate the index has seen since the week to July 29, 1983, when it was 17.8 percent.

"It is high time to break from the herd of pessimistic analysts, who will continue to bemoan economic weakness long after the Great Recession is history," said Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director at ECRI.

Achuthan told Reuters last week that he expects the recovery to take hold at a stronger pace than any the U.S. has seen since the early 1980s.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 8/7/2009:

WLI = 123.9
Annual ROC = 13.4%

Last week's WLI was revised to 121.7, while the annual ROC was revised to 10.4%.

WLI Growth at 26-Year High
Reuters
August 14, 2009

(Reuters) - A U.S. future economic growth gauge rose in the latest week, as its yearly growth rate surged to a 26-year high, suggesting that recovery will commence at the briskest pace in decades, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to a 47-week high of 123.9 in the week to Aug. 7 from a downwardly revised 121.7 the prior week, which was originally reported at 121.8.

Meanwhile, the index's annualized growth rate leapt to a 26-year high of 13.4 percent from last week's five-year high of 10.4 percent, which ECRI originally reported at 10.5 percent.

It was the index's highest yearly growth rate reading since the week to Aug. 26, 1983, when it stood at 13.9 percent.

"With WLI growth surging, the odds are rising that the early stage of this economic recovery will be stronger than any since the early 1980s," said Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director at ECRI.

Achuthan recently told Reuters that the national recovery would be stronger than many expect, though signs of such strong growth will not be apparent until sometime next year.

"Next year, looking back you'll see that GDP, industrial production, sales, and even non-manufacturing jobs growth -- where 91 percent of Americans work -- began rising as recovery took hold," Achuthan said.

[rffrydr]

Achuthan is back in business:

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/News/Surveillance/vdYOhK8tQkU4.mp3
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 7/31/2009:

WLI = 121.8
Annual ROC = 10.5%

Last week's WLI was revised to 119.5. No revision to last week's annual ROC.

WLI Growth Soars Into Double-Digits
Reuters
August 07, 2009

(Reuters) - A measure of future U.S. economic growth crept higher in the latest week, while its yearly growth rate advanced to another five-year high, reaffirming projections of a strong, near-term recovery, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 121.8 in the week ended July 31 from a downwardly revised 119.5 the week prior, which was originally reported at 119.6.

The index's annualized growth rate reached a fresh five-year high of 10.5 percent from 8.8 percent the previous week.

It was the highest yearly growth reading since the week ended March 19, 2004, when it stood at 11.0 percent.

"With WLI growth soaring into the double-digit range, prospects for U.S. economic growth have brightened significantly," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan.

Achuthan told Reuters last week that the recovery is poised to be "stronger than many expect."

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 7/24/2009:

WLI = 119.6
Annual ROC = 8.8%

Last week's WLI was revised to 118.3. No revision to last week's annual ROC.

Weekly Leading Index Jumps
Reuters
July 31, 2009

(Reuters) - A measure of future U.S. economic growth climbed higher in the latest week while its yearly growth rate hit a fresh five-year high, signaling a stronger recovery than originally forecast, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 119.6 in the week ended July 24 from a downwardly revised 118.3 the previous week, which was originally reported at 118.4.

The index's annualized growth rate continued to soar, reaching a new five-year high of 8.8 percent from 7.7 percent the prior week.

It was the highest yearly growth reading since the week to Oct. 3, 2008 when it was 8.9 percent.

ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan has said the recession is already beginning to wane, and that increased stimulus from Washington is not necessary for economic growth.

"Not only is the U.S. recession set to end this summer, but the recovery is apt to be stronger than many expect."

The weekly index rose in the latest week due to firmer housing activity, said Achuthan.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 7/17/2009:

WLI = 118.4
Annual ROC = 7.7%

No revisions to last week's readings.

Following is the accompanying Reuters story:

WLI Growth at Fresh 5-year High
Reuters
July 24, 2009

(Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth edged higher in the latest week, while its measure of annual growth continued to stride at five-year highs, feeding hopes that a smooth recovery is due this year, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 118.4 in the week to July 17 from 118.1 the previous week.

The index's annualized growth rate jumped to a fresh five-year high of 7.7 percent from 7.0 percent one week ago.

It was the index's highest yearly growth rate reading since the week ended May 7, 2004, when it stood at 7.8 percent.

"With WLI growth climbing to a new five-year high, it is reaffirming that the end of recession is at hand and that the U.S. economy is poised for recovery in short order," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The weekly index rose due to higher stock and commodity prices, said Achuthan.