Latest ECRI Weekly Leading Index Readings

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 1/4/2008:

WLI = 136.6
Annual ROC = -6.7% (the weakest reading since the November 16, 2001 reading)

No revision to last week's WLI, but the annual ROC was revised to -6.3%.

[index investor]

Henry,
I know what the WLI is, but what is the annual ROC?
Thanks.

Charles
_________________
charles leary

[HenryTo]

Hi Charles, please scroll back to me post on November 23, 2007.

http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/latest-ecri-weekly-leading-index-readings-t591,start,165.html

Best,
Henry

[index investor]

Henry

Thanks.

Charles
_________________
charles leary

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 1/11/2008:

WLI = 137.4
Annual ROC = -6.5%

Last week's WLI was revised to 136.2, while the annual ROC was revised to -7.1%. The latest uptick could simply be just noise - at this point, the US economy remains hugely vulnerable to a recession.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 1/18/2008:

WLI = 135.8
Annual ROC = -6.0%

No revisions to last week's readings.

ECRI still not calling for a recession yet. Says that the U.S. economy is now very vulnerable but there is still a window of opportunity (although it is measured in weeks, and not months) for fiscal stimulus to cushion this fall and turn it into a soft landing.

There are other off-setting positive factors as well, such as the record low inventory-to-sales ratio (which means that the manufacturing sector won't have much inventory to work off, unlikes during past business cycles), as well as a very weak U.S. dollar, which has led and is still leading to higher U.S. exports.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 1/25/2008:

WLI = 131.1
Annual ROC = -7.1%

Last week's WLI was revised to 135.7. No revisions to last week's annual ROC reading. Quoting ECRI: "The window of opportunity to avert a U.S. recession is about to slam shut."

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 2/1/2008:

WLI = 133.5
Annual ROC = -7.9%

No revisions to last week's readings. According to ECRI, time is now running out the U.S. economy - the fiscal stimulus will need to reach U.S. consumers ASAP in order to avert an economic recession.

[rffrydr]

Looks like he fought his own indicator all the way down. --A not uncommon action for "system traders."
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[nodoodahs]

_________________
He was wearing my Harvard tie. Can you believe it? My Harvard tie. Like oh, sure, HE went to Harvard.

[HenryTo]

ECRI on Bloomberg video. Highly recommended, especially towards the end:

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vnGBf0UMp

[dknoester]

"ECRI's leading U.S. index rose 2.4 points to 133.5 in the week ended Feb. 1. But the growth rate fell to -7.9%, the lowest since the 2001 recession.:

http://www.investors.com/editorial/IBDArticles.asp?artsec=5&issue=20080208

DK

[nodoodahs]

A nice flukey little feature of the rolling-year metric. You'll find similar data points when looking at simple moving averages, because every point is considered TWICE - once when it's added, and once when it's taken out.

A good argument for a lag method (exponential moving average) or percentage-based MACD based on them. I swear, I'm liking that PPO more every year.
_________________
He was wearing my Harvard tie. Can you believe it? My Harvard tie. Like oh, sure, HE went to Harvard.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 2/8/2008:

WLI = 133.4
Annual ROC = -9.1%

No revisions to last week's readings. According to ECRI, this reading is now flashing a recession signal.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 2/15/2008:

WLI = 132.3
Annual ROC = -10.2%

Last week's readings were revised to 133.1 and -9.2%, respectively. ECRI asserts that we are now "on the verge of a recession."