Latest ECRI Weekly Leading Index Readings

[lmrhoades]

Henry...
Are you still comfortable with the market at this time based on these readings, has this already been priced in?
_________________
LMR

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 2/22/2008:

WLI = 132.4
Annual ROC = -9.6%

Last week's WLI was revised to 132.2 and -9.2%. No revision to the annual ROC. ECRI asserts that despite the latest uptick, there is still a real danger of the US entering a recession.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 2/29/2008:

WLI = 132.6
Annual ROC = -10.5%

Last week's readings were revised to 131.4 and -10.6%, respectively. ECRI says that readings remain "in recession territory."

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 3/7/2008:

WLI = 132.2
Annual ROC = -10.4%

Last week's WLI was revised to 132.5. No changes to the annual ROC. Again says that these readings remain "in recession territory."

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 3/14/2008:

WLI = 130.8
Annual ROC = -10.4%

Last week's WLI was revised to 132.1. No change to the annual ROC. Says now the readings are now "unambiguously" giving out recessionary signals.

[HenryTo]

More on ECRI's latest call:

http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1480/

[rffrydr]

The Real Money free subscription pays off: Lakshman in the act, blaming it all on the FED's tardiness ("bungling"), explaining that years of talking down the economy had left inventory tightness a magic button to recovery. Why didn't they just press it?! Why don't they????

http://www.thestreet.com/s/bernanke-botched-it-says-critic/video/strategysession/10409432.html?puc=_htmlrmm#10409432

To wit, yesterday's Durables. After years it gets easy to lean one way--even as a contrarian. Of course, if it was a matter of manufacturing we would have had our "recession" over and done with. Recession is what more than a few bulls are praying for right now.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 3/21/2008:

WLI = 131.8
Annual ROC = -10.0%

No change to last week's WLI. The annual ROC, however, was revised to -10.2%.

[rffrydr]

The once outsourced Indian analysts who have come back to us as consultants bring with them a rigour and intelligence that is hard to match. From this springs a confidence that, like a good computer program, belies common sense.

Anirvan Banerji puts the ECRI apology in writing: again it's all about inventories with them witch they mistakenly use to account for the "foolish early recession calls" of last year, when oil spikes, housing peaks and yeild curves seemed irrelevant. Although they credit this feeling in the dollar rate for maintaining their precious lean inventories. It wasn't inventories that made that happen. And as the Durables showed last week, inventories can be as much a lagging as leading indicator.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 3/28/2008:

WLI = 129.9
Annual ROC = -10.7%

Last week's WLI was revised to 131.7. No change to the annual ROC, however.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 4/4/2008:

WLI = 131.9
Annual ROC = -10.7%

Last week's WLI was revised to 129.8. while the annual ROC was revised to -10.8%.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 4/11/2008:

WLI = 132.0
Annual ROC = -10.2%

No revision to last week's WLI, but annual ROC was revised to -10.9%.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 4/18/2008:

WLI = 132.1
Annual ROC = -9.7%

Annual ROC surges to 11-week high but indicator still remains "deep in recession territory."

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 4/25/2008:

WLI = 131.9
Annual ROC = -8.7%

Last week's WLI remains unchanged, although the annual ROC was revised to -9.8%.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 5/2/2008:

WLI = 133.5
Annual ROC = -8.0%

Last week's WLI was revised to 131.8. No revision to the annual ROC, however.