Latest ECRI Weekly Leading Index Readings

HenryTo

For some reason, the ECRI doesn't publish weekly press releases anymore on its Weekly Leading Index readings - although one can still get access to the weekly readings via a (free) registration.

For the week ending June 17, 2005, the Weekly Leading Index level is at 133.4 - a growth rate of 0.2% from last year. I will try to update this thread every week from now on.

Hope everyone is having a great Sunday!

Henry

rffrydr · Posted: Sat Mar 29, 2008 8:14 am Post subject:

The once outsourced Indian analysts who have come back to us as consultants bring with them a rigour and intelligence that is hard to match. From this springs a confidence that, like a good computer program, belies common sense.

Anirvan Banerji puts the ECRI apology in writing: again it's all about inventories with them witch they mistakenly use to account for the "foolish early recession calls" of last year, when oil spikes, housing peaks and yeild curves seemed irrelevant. Although they credit this feeling in the dollar rate for maintaining their precious lean inventories. It wasn't inventories that made that happen. And as the Durables showed last week, inventories can be as much a lagging as leading indicator.

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 10:16 pm Post subject:

For the week ending 3/21/2008:

WLI = 131.8
Annual ROC = -10.0%

No change to last week's WLI. The annual ROC, however, was revised to -10.2%.

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 12:23 am Post subject:

The Real Money free subscription pays off: Lakshman in the act, blaming it all on the FED's tardiness ("bungling"), explaining that years of talking down the economy had left inventory tightness a magic button to recovery. Why didn't they just press it?! Why don't they????

http://www.thestreet.com/s/bernanke-botched-it-says-critic/video/strategysession/10409432.html?puc=_htmlrmm#10409432

To wit, yesterday's Durables. After years it gets easy to lean one way--even as a contrarian. Of course, if it was a matter of manufacturing we would have had our "recession" over and done with. Recession is what more than a few bulls are praying for right now.
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HenryTo · Posted: Sat Mar 22, 2008 11:59 am Post subject:

More on ECRI's latest call:

http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1480/

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Mar 22, 2008 11:56 am Post subject:

For the week ending 3/14/2008:

WLI = 130.8
Annual ROC = -10.4%

Last week's WLI was revised to 132.1. No change to the annual ROC. Says now the readings are now "unambiguously" giving out recessionary signals.

HenryTo · Posted: Sun Mar 16, 2008 11:11 am Post subject:

For the week ending 3/7/2008:

WLI = 132.2
Annual ROC = -10.4%

Last week's WLI was revised to 132.5. No changes to the annual ROC. Again says that these readings remain "in recession territory."

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Mar 08, 2008 7:16 pm Post subject:

For the week ending 2/29/2008:

WLI = 132.6
Annual ROC = -10.5%

Last week's readings were revised to 131.4 and -10.6%, respectively. ECRI says that readings remain "in recession territory."

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Feb 29, 2008 12:30 pm Post subject:

For the week ending 2/22/2008:

WLI = 132.4
Annual ROC = -9.6%

Last week's WLI was revised to 132.2 and -9.2%. No revision to the annual ROC. ECRI asserts that despite the latest uptick, there is still a real danger of the US entering a recession.

lmrhoades · Senior Poster Joined: 17 Jan 2008 Posts: 112

Henry...
Are you still comfortable with the market at this time based on these readings, has this already been priced in?
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LMR

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Feb 22, 2008 10:51 am Post subject:

For the week ending 2/15/2008:

WLI = 132.3
Annual ROC = -10.2%

Last week's readings were revised to 133.1 and -9.2%, respectively. ECRI asserts that we are now "on the verge of a recession."

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 9:33 am Post subject:

For the week ending 2/8/2008:

WLI = 133.4
Annual ROC = -9.1%

No revisions to last week's readings. According to ECRI, this reading is now flashing a recession signal.

nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 2408

A nice flukey little feature of the rolling-year metric. You'll find similar data points when looking at simple moving averages, because every point is considered TWICE - once when it's added, and once when it's taken out.

A good argument for a lag method (exponential moving average) or percentage-based MACD based on them. I swear, I'm liking that PPO more every year.
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I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

dknoester

"ECRI's leading U.S. index rose 2.4 points to 133.5 in the week ended Feb. 1. But the growth rate fell to -7.9%, the lowest since the 2001 recession.:

http://www.investors.com/editorial/IBDArticles.asp?artsec=5&issue=20080208

DK

HenryTo · Posted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 6:18 pm Post subject:

ECRI on Bloomberg video. Highly recommended, especially towards the end:

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vnGBf0UMp

nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 2408

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I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.