Latest ECRI Weekly Leading Index Readings

[HenryTo]

For some reason, the ECRI doesn't publish weekly press releases anymore on its Weekly Leading Index readings - although one can still get access to the weekly readings via a (free) registration.

For the week ending June 17, 2005, the Weekly Leading Index level is at 133.4 - a growth rate of 0.2% from last year. I will try to update this thread every week from now on.

Hope everyone is having a great Sunday!

Henry

[rffrydr]

Looks like he fought his own indicator all the way down. --A not uncommon action for "system traders."
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 2/1/2008:

WLI = 133.5
Annual ROC = -7.9%

No revisions to last week's readings. According to ECRI, time is now running out the U.S. economy - the fiscal stimulus will need to reach U.S. consumers ASAP in order to avert an economic recession.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 1/25/2008:

WLI = 131.1
Annual ROC = -7.1%

Last week's WLI was revised to 135.7. No revisions to last week's annual ROC reading. Quoting ECRI: "The window of opportunity to avert a U.S. recession is about to slam shut."

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 1/18/2008:

WLI = 135.8
Annual ROC = -6.0%

No revisions to last week's readings.

ECRI still not calling for a recession yet. Says that the U.S. economy is now very vulnerable but there is still a window of opportunity (although it is measured in weeks, and not months) for fiscal stimulus to cushion this fall and turn it into a soft landing.

There are other off-setting positive factors as well, such as the record low inventory-to-sales ratio (which means that the manufacturing sector won't have much inventory to work off, unlikes during past business cycles), as well as a very weak U.S. dollar, which has led and is still leading to higher U.S. exports.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 1/11/2008:

WLI = 137.4
Annual ROC = -6.5%

Last week's WLI was revised to 136.2, while the annual ROC was revised to -7.1%. The latest uptick could simply be just noise - at this point, the US economy remains hugely vulnerable to a recession.

[index investor]

Henry

Thanks.

Charles
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charles leary

[HenryTo]

Hi Charles, please scroll back to me post on November 23, 2007.

http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/latest-ecri-weekly-leading-index-readings-t591,start,165.html

Best,
Henry

[index investor]

Henry,
I know what the WLI is, but what is the annual ROC?
Thanks.

Charles
_________________
charles leary

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 1/4/2008:

WLI = 136.6
Annual ROC = -6.7% (the weakest reading since the November 16, 2001 reading)

No revision to last week's WLI, but the annual ROC was revised to -6.3%.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 12/28/2007:

WLI = 135.1
Annual ROC = -6.2% (the weakest reading since the November 16, 2001 reading)

Last week's WLI was revised to 135.0. No change to the annual ROC.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 12/21/2007:

WLI = 135.2
Annual ROC = -5.2% (the lowest reading since the November 1, 2002 reading)

No revisions to last week's readings.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 12/14/2007:

WLI = 136.2
Annual ROC = -4.8% (the lowest reading since the November 1, 2002 reading)

Last week's readings were revised to 137.9 and -3.9%, respectively.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 12/7/2007:

WLI = 138.0
Annual ROC = -3.8% (the lowest reading since the November 15, 2002 reading)

Last week's readings were revised to 138.2 and -3.2%, respectively.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 11/30/2007:

WLI = 138.7
Annual ROC = -2.7% (the lowest reading since the November 22, 2002 reading)

Last week's readings were revised to 136.9 and -2.2%, respectively.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 11/23/2007:

WLI = 138.1
Annual ROC = -1.8% (the lowest reading since the March 14, 2003 reading)

Last week's WLI was revised to 139.1. No revision to the annual ROC, however.