Latest ECRI Weekly Leading Index Readings

[HenryTo]

For some reason, the ECRI doesn't publish weekly press releases anymore on its Weekly Leading Index readings - although one can still get access to the weekly readings via a (free) registration.

For the week ending June 17, 2005, the Weekly Leading Index level is at 133.4 - a growth rate of 0.2% from last year. I will try to update this thread every week from now on.

Hope everyone is having a great Sunday!

Henry

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 10/14/2011

WLI = 120.4
Annual ROC = -10.1%

Last week's WLI was revised to 120.0, while the annual ROC was revised to -9.7%.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WLI Rises

A measure of future U.S. economic growth was little changed in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate fell to its lowest level in more than a year, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index inched up to 120.4 in the week ended Oct 14 from 120.0 the week before. That was originally reported as 120.2.

The index's annualized growth rate sagged to minus 10.1 percent from minus 9.7 percent. It was the lowest level since late July 2010.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 10/7/2011

WLI = 120.2
Annual ROC = -9.6%

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WLI Falls

A measure of future U.S. economic growth dipped in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate fell to its lowest level in more than a year, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged down to 120.2 in the week ended Oct 7 from a revised 120.5 the previous week. That was originally reported as 121.2.

The index's annualized growth rate sagged to minus 9.6 percent from minus 8.7 percent a week earlier. It was the lowest level since early September 2010.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 9/30/2011

WLI = 120.5
Annual ROC = -8.7%

Last week's WLI was revised to 121.3, while the annual ROC was revised to -7.7%.

[rffrydr]

Hussman bites hook line and....sinker:

http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc111003.htm

Cash and precious metals stocks, hunh...how's that working out for ya?

Just try and put that $2.3 T balance sheet through a New York court. We're still doing Lehman--and it had no depositors.

Lesson from '08: Math can be so dumb.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

Surprise!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CESIG10:IND
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[smile]

[HenryTo]

That would be correct, Bill. Although I'm not sure the % component of the S&P 500 in the ECRI WLI. Following are the latest readings.

For the week ending 9/23/2011

WLI = 121.9
Annual ROC = -7.2%

Last week's readings were unchanged.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WLI Falls

A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week, and the annualized growth rate also slowed, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 121.9 in the week ended Sept. 23 from 122.2 the previous week.

The index's annualized growth rate decelerated to minus 7.2 percent from minus 6.7 percent a week earlier.

[rffrydr]

Here he is in no unequivocal terms declaring "the recession," today.

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/News/Surveillance/vEVSaoh5P.qM.mp3

As if it ever wasn't a recession. I continue to call it the best of all possible depressions--but, will admit, starting to doubt myself. Though europe is not yet through I WAY underestimated where it would be right now.

It is now overdetermined by multiple indicators of his. Achutan was wrong in '08 (and did a clever shuffle before it was too late); learning from that he wisely stood against his own index which was wrong summer '10, and he's finally gonna be called out here, on his big call. The main double-dip is in business sentiment (probably loosing the faith in their blessed Republicans as much as anything else). What does worry me is the confidence surveys showing public giving up on the future. That's downright un-american. But that can certainly drag us down (note that gambling was down last quarter).

Housing is our built-in boom/bust, and at this point we can't get hurt falling out of the bottom floor. And if official unemployment approaches his double-digits debt will start exploding. Either way we walk out standing up.

Below that article is this one:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-30/toyota-honda-rebound-ignites-call-of-what-recession-in-u-s-sales-cars.html

If it is 1937 we should be weeks away from a brief buy window. I'm sticking to Aug 8 lows, but the break of that low by the many materials stocks, which I have not been bullish, and china stocks (which I've been bearish since 2008); and volatility in tech, certainly has me on the spot.

Bring it on
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[nodoodahs]

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 9/16/2011

WLI = 122.2
Annual ROC = -6.7%

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WLI Slips

The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s weekly index of leading economic indicators is still, you guessed it, pointing in the wrong direction.

The ECRI’s index ticked lower yet again last week, the institute said today, and the four-week rolling average fell to -6.7%, the worst rate of decline in nearly a year.

The index is still not signaling a recession — it has fallen much further than this in past recessions, and even fell more than during last year’s double-dip scare, when growth actually held up OK.

But it continues to defy any expectations of a quick economic rebound in the near future. And it could be pointing to more declines for the stock market.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 9/9/2011

WLI = 122.8
Annual ROC = -6.1%

Last week's WLI was revised to 123.5, while the annual ROC was revised to -5.1%.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 9/2/2011

WLI = 123.0
Annual ROC = -6.2%

Last week's WLI was revised to 122.4, while the annual ROC was revised to -4.4%.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WLI Ticks Up, but Growth Weakens

A measure of future U.S. economic growth ticked higher in the latest week, but the annualized growth rate fell to its lowest level in nearly a year, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 123.0 in the week ended Sept 2 from 122.4 the previous week. That was originally reported as 122.5.

It was a three-week high for the leading index. But the index's annualized growth rate tumbled to its lowest level since late October 2010, falling to minus 6.2 percent from minus 4.4 percent a week earlier.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 8/26/2011

WLI = 122.5
Annual ROC = -4.3%

Last week's WLI was revised to 122.7, while the annual ROC was unchanged.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WLI Slips

A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate tumbled to its lowest level since November, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index eased to 122.5 in the week ended Aug 26 from 122.7 the previous week. That was originally reported as 122.8 percent.

The index's annualized growth rate fell to minus 4.3 percent from minus 2.1 percent, hitting its lowest level since early November 2010.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 8/19/2011

WLI = 122.8
Annual ROC = -2.1%

Last week's WLI was revised to 123.8, while the annual ROC was unchanged.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WLI Falls

August 26, 2011

(Reuters) - A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week, and the growth rate weakened on an annualized basis, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 122.8 in the week ended August 19 from 123.8 the previous week. The previous week's figure was originally reported as 123.9.

The index's annualized growth rate sank to -2.1 percent from -0.1 percent a week earlier.

It was the lowest growth rate since the week of November 26, 2010, according to ECRI.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending 8/12/2011

WLI = 123.9
Annual ROC = -0.1%

Last week's WLI was revised to 127.6, while the annual ROC was revised to 1.5%.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WLI Drops

August 19, 2011

(Reuters) - A measure of future U.S. economic growth sank to a 41-week low in the latest week and its growth gauge turned negative for the first time in 35 weeks, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index dropped to 123.9 in the week ended August 12, from 127.6 the previous week, originally reported at 127.9 percent. That is its lowest reading since October 29, 2010.

The index's annualized growth rate fell to -0.1 percent, its lowest since December 10, 2010, from 1.5 percent a week earlier, which was revised from 1.7 percent.

The index comes a day after data revealed factory activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region slumped to a recession low in August, prompting U.S. bond yields to drop and deepening concerns over a drawn-out U.S. economic slowdown.