Latest ECRI Weekly Leading Index Readings

[HenryTo]

For some reason, the ECRI doesn't publish weekly press releases anymore on its Weekly Leading Index readings - although one can still get access to the weekly readings via a (free) registration.

For the week ending June 17, 2005, the Weekly Leading Index level is at 133.4 - a growth rate of 0.2% from last year. I will try to update this thread every week from now on.

Hope everyone is having a great Sunday!

Henry

[HenryTo]

Readers can access the free weekly readings from this link. Please note that one needs to register (it is free) if you haven't already done so:

http://www.businesscycle.com/free_data/index.php

For the week ending June 24th, the growth rate for the Weekly Leading Index is 0.8% - corresponding to a reading of 133.7.

The corresponding monthly index at the end of May is growing at a rate of 0.1%

[professor_56]

Hello, Henry and everyone else. I'm obviously a newbie and proud of it.
I have followed the ECRI's WLI for several months and find it useful. For others who may be interested, here is an article on the WLI's hisorical record.

http://www.edwardjones.com/cgi/getData.cgi?file=/pdf/eu_v12_n2.pdf

[HenryTo]

Thanks for the link, and welcome! Great and brief rundown on the historical track record of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index. A great indicator to keep track of going forward - although my guess is that the WLI will continue to decline in the weeks ahead given that our global diffusion index is also continuing its downtrend.

Henry

[professor_56]

Hi Henry,
I thought that the WLI Growth Rate was headed to a recession indication a few weeks ago. It did go slightly below zero (reported on June 10), but has since pulled back each week to its current level of .8%. I also miss the news commentary that used to accompany the Friday release of the data.

Please enlighten me about the Global Diffusion Index. Thanks.
Bill (professor_56)

[HenryTo]

Bill,

Yes, the weekly commentary was great - I guess now that they have the ECRI Light for individual investors, they do not think it is appropriate anymore to publish the free weekly commentaries. That and most probably the fact that they have a good-enough subscriber base as well.

Bill, our Global Diffusion Index is constructed using leading indicators data from the 23 OECD countries. Please see our May 30th commentary for more details:

http://www.marketthoughts.com/z20050530.html

We also did another update in our June 12th commentary:

http://www.marketthoughts.com/z20050612.html

Best,

Henry

[professor_56]

Henry,
Thanks for the GDI links. Meanwhile, the WLI press release with some comment is back. The Reuters link is below:

www.businesscycle.com/showstory.php?storyID=863

The growth rate rose again this week, to 1.4%.

Bill

[HenryTo]

Thanks, Bill, for the link!

Just been reading some of their older stuff - am trying to find the specific components on the index. From memory, I believe they have seven components, but I only found six, namely: the Mortgage Bankers Association's home purchase index, money supply, stock prices, initial jobless claims, corporate yield spreads (inverted), and corporate bond quality spreads.

Any takers out there as to what the seventh component is?

Hope everyone is having a good weekend.

Henry

[professor_56]

Hi, Henry
According to HypoVereinsbank's research division, the seven components are initial jobless claims, mortgage applications, money supply M2, an industrial materials price index, stock prices, corporate bond yields, and the spread between Treasuries and corporate bonds.

Have a great weekend.
Bill

[HenryTo]

Again, readers can access the free weekly readings from this link:

http://www.businesscycle.com/free_data/index.php

For the week ending July 8th, the growth rate for the Weekly Leading Index is 1.2% - corresponding to a reading of 133.5.

The corresponding monthly index at the end of June is growing at a rate of 0.9% - an increase from 0.1% at the end of May.

[HenryTo]

For the week ending July 15th, the growth rate for the Weekly Leading Index is 1.6% - corresponding to a reading of 134.7 - an increase from a growth rate of 1.2% from last week.

[HenryTo]

Hello folks,

For the week ending July 22th, the growth rate for the Weekly Leading Index is 1.7% - corresponding to a reading of 134.5 - an increase from a growth rate of 1.6% from last week (although the absolute reading of the Weekly Leading Index is slightly lower - decreasing from 134.7 to 134.5).

This still signals weaker economic growth ahead.

Henry

[HenryTo]

Dear all,

I apologize for not posting this last Friday. Please note there will be a new reading that is scheduled for release tomorrow.

For the week ending July 29th, the growth rate for the Weekly Leading Index rose slightly from 1.7% to 1.8% - corresponding to a reading of 134.9 - an increase from a reading of 134.5 from the week prior.

The monthly WLI for the period ending July is at a level of 133.7 - corresponding to a growth rate of 1.8% as well.

The growth rate for the Future Inflation Gauge for the end of July is 1.2% - suggesting that inflation is still projected to remain very tame in the months ahead.

Best,

Henry

[HenryTo]

Big jump in the ECRI's Weekly Leading Index this week - from a growth rate of 1.8% last Friday to a growth rate of 2.6% in the latest report. The absolute level is now at 135.6.

More thoughts in a later post.

Best to all,

Henry

[HenryTo]

A significant jump in the ECRI's Weekly Leading Index this week - from a growth rate of 2.6% last Friday to a growth rate of 3.0% in the latest report. The absolute level is again at 135.6.

3% signals pretty good growth going forward - especially in light of:

1) High oil and natural gas prices
2) A continuing hike in the Fed Funds rate
3) A slowdown in the real estate industry (which directly and indirectly accounted for more than 40% of all job growth since the end of the 2001 recession)

Best to all,

Henry