Latest Technical Commentary from Carl Swenlin

[HenryTo]

FYI:

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/071130_bottom.html

[jchen0119]

Hi, Henry:

Thanks for your encouragement.

I read your commentary on safehaven.com about the reasons behind the DJIA neutral stance. It is very interesting food for thought.

Here is another guess at the market. The steep drop on Friday was accompanied by heavy volume, especially going into the close. So I expect the market to continue the sell-off on Monday morning, but then bounce back mid-day from lower Bollinger Band support (see S&P and Bank Index charts). Monday will probably mark a short-term low for a few days.

And I would like to see more heavy volume on Monday, as I believe it is a sign of a mini-washout.

Finally, June 13 keeps coming up in my date calculations. I have some guesses about its significance, but I am not that sure. So I look forward to the actions next week. I have a feeling it will be very dramatic and significant.

This whole (educated) guessing game is what keeps me interested in the market. The market is somewhat sensible once you see through the common misconceptions, but it is never fully predictable. This makes for a fascinating intellectual challenge.

Cheers

Jing

[rffrydr]

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQQ:$SPX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p82453124681
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

Jing, great call.

Here is the latest technical commentary courtesy of Carl Swenlin:

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/080606_3mark.html

[jchen0119]

The short-term correction has probably already started, with S&P 500 making higher high on Friday, and Dow making lower high. The daily MACD is also showing a small divergence for many indexes. The market is simply tied and ready to correct.

So I think we have already seen the short-term top and the correction will start in earnest early next week. I expect to see it bottom in 2-3 weeks.

Cheers

Jing

[HenryTo]

"Looking Bullish But Overbought":

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/080516_obought.html