| Author |
Latest Technical Commentary from Carl Swenlin Replies |
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16939
Location: Sunny California
|
 Posted: Mon May 21, 2012 10:17 am Post subject: |
 |
|
Why should we repeat the last two instances? Things aren't as bad as then and we had those selloffs to get it into our heads. We just saw some "handicapping" going into G8--they HAD to get the message. And they did: I heard the word "eurobond" whispered 
Apple taking us out ofthe hole--as it should. Indeed this little devil is probably behind the SP not trading down to 200dma. Trap. JPM downgraded, drops stock purchase program and is trading up. 3 1/2% yield with a balance sheet stronger than most countries will keep a bid under it. 5 good down waves; CAT made a lower low just inside BB and upside gap besides; and they're buying crude.
If it weren't for FB we wouldn't be able to smoke out shorts. A german counter-offensive into Greek elections of course dumbs this all down.
{edit} Do we really need to see this again? | Quote: | | ...Six-straight negative days for the S&P 500, yet there were just three trading sessions in the past month with losses greater than 1%. How quickly we forgot the volatility of last August/September, when the index closed up or down more than 1% in nearly 2/3 of the 44 trading days. Included in that two-month stretch were 18 days of moves that were plus or minus at least 2%. I'm not relishing a return to that type of environment, just putting the current environment into perspective. |
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11740
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16939
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Sat Oct 08, 2011 9:25 pm Post subject: |
|
|
That happened to be the EXACT low for corp bonds...which is what mattered. Plenty of "leaders" bottomed right then at end of OCT '08 and we continued the 10 years unabated Nov-Jan rally. Goldman Sachs, ATT, took off never to be seen down there again. Even High Yield and corp RE bottomed on that extreme sentiment. I bought then  The rest was just killing time. 
This is the problem with tech analysis: if we get a drop like he highlights, BERK will be selling for less than cash on book!
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11740
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16939
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Sun Apr 17, 2011 6:06 am Post subject: |
|
|
"Normal" is not the word that I'd keep on the tip of my tongue this cycle--to be topped out at FedFunds under 1% would be an "achievement." Hard to stand against the hard numbers though. What we might be "due" this summer however is a good one--for a change. 
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11740
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11740
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11740
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Sat Nov 20, 2010 8:37 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Carl Swenlin on cyclical bull vs. secular bull markets:
http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2010/11/secular-status.html
| Quote: | Finally, the market has entered another sideways trading range, which has lasted about 10 years so far. In that time there have been two bloody cyclical bear markets (down about 50% each) and one cyclical bull that drove prices up about 100%. We are currently in another cyclical bull market, seemingly headed back to the top of the trading range. Some are calling the last 10 years a secular bear market. I am inclined to call it a consolidation, but it certainly has heaped a lot of pain on some investing styles, so I won't argue the point.
Where we go from here is a matter of speculation. It appears to me that prices can continue back up to the top of the trading range, completing the bull market with another gain of about 100%. Perhaps it can continue to rally well above the top of the range in the beginning stages of another secular bull market, or, others have suggested, it may continue sideways for another decade or so, cycling through a series of cyclical bull and bear markets. Last, but not least, there is the possibility that prices will drop below the range and enter a devastating secular decline.
My best guess, and it is just a guess, is that the market will continue sideways for several more years -- the pattern has been set. I don't have a guess as to which way the trading range will eventually resolve, but I don't really need to guess. Our mechanical timing models should keep us aligned with the trend no matter which way it goes. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16939
Location: Sunny California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11740
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2010 2:12 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Carl Swenlin registers a new long-term buy signal but doesn't express too much confidence in it:
http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2010/09/new-long-term-buy-signal.html
| Quote: | Today another long-term buy signal was generated when the S&P 500 Index 50-EMA crossed up through the 200-EMA. Normally, we have high confidence in these signals, but, unfortunately, the long-term model has generated four, count 'em, four "long-term" signals in less than three months. On the chart below the red arrows mark the sell signals and the green arrows the buy signals. Prices have entered a trading range and, as you can see, they move just far enough in one direction to trigger a signal, then they reverse and go just far enough in the opposite direction to trigger the reverse signal.
This is not typical of how the model usually works, but any mechanical model will eventually run into rough patches where peculiar price movement defeats them. This is one of those times, and as long as the 50-EMA keeps making these shallow cuts back and forth, our confidence in the signals will not be robust.
The chart below shows a three-year time frame, and the first two signals (sell in January 2008; buy in August 2009) are what we would classify as normal.
Bottom Line: The question now is how much faith do we put in this new buy signal. Since it is a buy signal, I would say that it gives the bulls a slight advantage, but my confidence will really blossom when prices break through the overhead resistance at about 1130 that has stopped progress three times since June. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11740
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2010 12:59 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Carl Swenlin on the usefulness of the amount of Rydex bull/bear assets/cash flows as a sentiment indicator, and why it maybe useful again despite the increasing popularity of ETFs as trading vehicles:
http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2010/08/rydex-asset-analysis.html
| Quote: | I recently noticed that assets have been flowing back into the Rydex group since the 2009 low, so I took a look at what was going on with Rydex cash flows. (Note that cumulative cash flow differs from total assets in that it shows total dollars flowing in/out of a fund, not simply the current value of fund assets.) The chart below shows that money has indeed been moving into bear funds durning the rally that began in 2009; whereas, flow into bull funds has been tentative -- making new highs, then dropping back to the 2007/2008 base. Incredibly, there was virtually no outflow from bull funds during the 2007/2008 bear market. Note that the bull fund outflow from the April top took the Bull+Sector index to a low not seen since the 2000/2002 bear market.
Looking at the raw readings we can detect the tentative nature of the bulls that has plagued this bull market, and it is obvious that the bears have been progressively more aggressive. Next we need to do the Ratio calculation.
The Ratio helps us identify points at which bullish or bearish sentiment have reached extremes that could result in price reversals. When we look at the Rydex Cash Flow Ratio below, we can see a trading range that has persisted since 2003. There are only two instances where the top of the range has been reached, and each resulted in a correction the most recent being the most severe. The bottom of the range was encountered numerous times, and each time there was a rally. Most notable is that the recent rally has so far been one of the smallest.
I have also marked the bottom of a smaller trading range that formed during the recent bull market. The Ratio blew through the bottom of that range during the current correction, and the most recent Ratio top suggests that it could prove to be a new benchmark for overbought.
Bottom Line: Upon closer inspection, I believe that the proliferation of ETFs has not adversely affected the usefulness of the Rydex Ratios. The most difficult problem to solve when using them is to provide a context within which to identify levels where sentiment is too extreme in one direction or the other. The range of the last seven years looks like something we could rely upon in the future; however, we also need to be alert for the formation of more narrow ranges that may be useful during shorter time frames. For now I think there is the potential for a Ratio range between the July low and the August top. I will be looking for price tops at the top of that range, and for rallies at the bottom. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11740
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Tue May 04, 2010 10:32 pm Post subject: |
|
|
FYI
| Quote: | | Last week on the S&P 500 chart I pointed out a small head and shoulders formation that has formed over the last three weeks. Today the neckline of the pattern was violated on expanding volume, giving us a minimum downside target of about 1140 -- this is a distance equal to the measure from the top of the head to the neckline. It is, again, a minimum downside target. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16939
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Mon Apr 19, 2010 9:21 am Post subject: |
|
|
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11740
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Sun Apr 18, 2010 11:41 pm Post subject: |
|
|
"Breakout fails":
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/100416_cspot.html
| Quote: | | I do have concerns when I look at the weekly chart. Prices are at the top of an ascending wedge formation, and a correction back to the rising trend line seems the most likely next move. Could be that today's decline was the beginning of that correction. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11740
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Sun Apr 11, 2010 12:26 am Post subject: |
|
|
Carl Swenlin asserts that the U.S. healthcare sector is looking "toppy":
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/100409_cspot.html
Note that this negative divergence has also been confirmed by the negative divergences in the healthcare sector A/D line and the A/D volume line. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Please log in to view without the ad banners |
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Statistics
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
