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Leading Indicators for San Diego County Replies |
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11260
Location: Los Angeles, California
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HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11260
Location: Los Angeles, California
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 Posted: Thu Oct 30, 2008 9:03 am Post subject: |
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Latest Leading Indicators (September) Update for San Diego County. Monthly decline smallest May 2007, although the October decline should be larger given the dismal performance of stock prices over the last month:
http://home.sandiego.edu/~agin/usdlei/lei08sep.htm |
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texfly101
Senior Poster
Joined: 22 Oct 2007
Posts: 118
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 11:38 am Post subject: |
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We just recently refinanced our home and I was surprised at how easily it went. I was prepared for a significant set of problems, extra documentation, and most importantly, a drop in the appraised value. None of that occurred. My rate was good, the terms acceptable, I was surprised at the appraisal not dropping and we closed within a week's time. If it hadn't been for me following the news, I wouldn't have known that there was a crisis in the lending industry. I'm not saying that its not real, just that my fears weren't realized. I wonder how many people stayed out of the housing market just because of that with the commensurate drop in permits, loans, etc.
I looked up FDR's 1933 Inaugural Address for the following quote
"So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself -- nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance."
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HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11260
Location: Los Angeles, California
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 8:40 am Post subject: |
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Latest Leading Indicators Update for San Diego County. Interestingly, building permits are heading up:
http://home.sandiego.edu/~agin/usdlei/lei08aug.htm
| Quote: | | September 30, 2008 -- The University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County fell 0.6 percent in August. For the tenth straight month, local consumer confidence was the most negative component. Also down considerably were initial claims for unemployment insurance, help wanted advertising, and the outlook for the national economy. These were offset somewhat by large gains in building permits and local stock prices. Although August's drop was the 28th in 29 months for the USD Index, it was the smallest monthly decline since May 2007. |
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Suomodo
Veteran Poster
Joined: 21 Mar 2008
Posts: 195
Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
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| Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 4:22 pm Post subject: |
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It will take min 6 months for the broad market to realize the correction is over or approaching an end... just like it did not recognize the downturn and its impact ...
Together with infrastructure projects the construction industry can start looking for new future...
Time to buy homebuilders, construction companies ? Those I have in my portfolio show clear bottoming patterns ...we ll see after reporting Q2, Q3 ..it can be however still too premature to add? |
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HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11260
Location: Los Angeles, California
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HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11260
Location: Los Angeles, California
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HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11260
Location: Los Angeles, California
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HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11260
Location: Los Angeles, California
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HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11260
Location: Los Angeles, California
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 11:51 pm Post subject: |
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Latest March 2008 update:
http://home.sandiego.edu/~agin/usdlei/lei08mar.htm
| Quote: | | The University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County fell 1.4 percent in March. The six components were split evenly, but sharp drops in three of the components - - building permits, consumer confidence, and help wanted advertising - - overwhelmed the much smaller gains in initial claims for unemployment insurance, local stock prices, and the outlook for the national economy. March's drop was the six consecutive significant decline in the Index, which has now fallen in 23 of the last 24 months. |
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rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16445
Location: Sunny California
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| Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 9:24 pm Post subject: |
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This was one of the first markets to break. The concentrated falloff in jobs last fall are RE concentrated, as is the region. And stats have truely changed:
| Quote: | | .... wanted advertising continued to fall, as employers become cautious in the face of a slowing economy. Due to structural changes in the help wanted advertising market, this component will now only consider Monster.com's measure of online advertising. |
Yet there is a large influence from priviliged mexico. A test of the EEM?
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