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Leading Indicators for San Diego County Replies |
HenryTo
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Joined: 06 Aug 2004
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Location: Los Angeles, California
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HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11262
Location: Los Angeles, California
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 Posted: Tue Dec 21, 2010 10:57 am Post subject: |
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San Diego's leading economic indicators finally rise after a four-month stagnation.
http://home.sandiego.edu/~agin/usdlei/lei10nov.htm
| Quote: | | November’s gain marked the 20th consecutive month where the USD Index has either increased or remained unchanged. The outlook then remains unchanged from that of recent months: Slow to moderate growth is expected in the local economy for at least most of 2011. A key development occurred in the local labor market in November, when nonfarm wage and salary employment increased by 100 compared to the same month in 2009. While the gain was tiny, it was the first time since the downturn began in April 2008 that the year-over-year employment comparison was positive. The forecast for 2010 is for a gain of 10,000 to 15,000 jobs, with healthcare, business and professional services, leisure and hospitality, and construction to be the biggest gainers. Manufacturing and government are the sectors to remain under the most pressure. |
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HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11262
Location: Los Angeles, California
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HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11262
Location: Los Angeles, California
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| Posted: Fri Feb 26, 2010 6:01 pm Post subject: |
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San Diego's leading economic indicators now up ten months in a row:
http://home.sandiego.edu/~agin/usdlei/lei10jan.htm
| Quote: | | There is no change in the previously reported outlook for the local economy. A bottom in terms of economic activity is likely in the first half of 2010, if it hasn’t already occurred. Unlike the national economy, where the Gross Domestic Product is reported quarterly as a gauge of the strength of the economy, the only measures that come out frequently at the local level are the employment and unemployment numbers. The problem is that employment is typically a lagging indicator, as firms usually wait until they are sure that a recovery has taken hold before they make the big commitment to add permanent staff. The situation will probably be more difficult in this recovery as many firms took steps to be much more efficient and are unlikely to hire back as many employees as they let go during the downturn. |
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HenryTo
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Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11262
Location: Los Angeles, California
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| Posted: Thu Feb 11, 2010 2:04 pm Post subject: |
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San Diego's leading economic indicators still looking pretty good:
http://home.sandiego.edu/~agin/usdlei/lei09dec.htm
| Quote: | | With December’s advance in the USD Index, the outlook continues to be positive for the local economy. There are signs of recovery in some sectors of the economy, such as housing, where prices are up more the eight percent from the low and where there has been a pickup in sales. Continued strength is expected in the housing market due to low interest rates, federal incentives for first-time and even move-up buyers, and the rebounding economy. On the downside, there is likely to be another wave of foreclosures as adjustable rate mortgages readjust and job losses take their toll. Still, a gain in the single digit percentage range is expected for 2010. |
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HenryTo
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Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11262
Location: Los Angeles, California
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| Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2009 8:34 am Post subject: |
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Leading indicators for San Diego County gain (its strongest yet) for the sixth consecutive month:
http://home.sandiego.edu/~agin/usdlei/lei09sep.htm
| Quote: | | September's gain was the sixth straight monthly increase in the USD Index and its strongest increase since it turned positive in April. The outlook continues to be for the local economy to remain weak for the rest of 2009 but to hit a bottom in the first half of 2010. This is in terms of jobs and employment, which typically is a lagging indicator. Economic activity may already be picking up, but businesses tend to be cautious in terms of hiring new workers until they are sure that a recovery has taken hold. As a result, the local unemployment rate is expected to approach and may top the 11 percent mark before improving. |
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HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11262
Location: Los Angeles, California
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HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11262
Location: Los Angeles, California
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HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11262
Location: Los Angeles, California
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| Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2009 8:38 am Post subject: |
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Third consecutive monthly gain after 24 straight down months:
http://home.sandiego.edu/~agin/usdlei/lei09jun.htm
| Quote: | | July 28, 2009 -- The University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.4 percent in June. The recent pattern of a sharp rise in consumer confidence supported by solid advances in building permits, local stock prices, and the outlook for the national economy pushed the USD Index to its third gain in a row after being down the previous 24 months. The positive news is tempered somewhat by the fact that initial claims for unemployment insurance and help wanted advertising both continue to be sharply negative. |
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HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11262
Location: Los Angeles, California
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| Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2009 11:37 pm Post subject: |
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Second consecutive monthly gain after 24 straight down months:
http://home.sandiego.edu/~agin/usdlei/lei09may.htm
| Quote: | | The University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.3 percent in May. Another strong gain in local consumer confidence powered the USD Index to its second consecutive gain after 24 straight down months. Also supporting the advance were sharp increases in local stock prices and the outlook for the national economy, along with a smaller rise in building permits. On the downside, the labor market variables continue to plunge, with both initial claims for unemployment insurance and help wanted advertising sharply negative. |
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HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11262
Location: Los Angeles, California
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| Posted: Thu May 28, 2009 7:00 am Post subject: |
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Light at the end of the tunnel - San Diego's leading indicator up for the first time in 24 months:
http://home.sandiego.edu/~agin/usdlei/lei09apr.htm
| Quote: | | May 28, 2009 -- The University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.2 percent in April. A sharp reversal in local consumer confidence, supported by solid gains in building permits, local stock prices, and the outlook for the national economy, allowed the USD Index to break a string of 24 consecutive monthly declines. April also marked the first time since March 2007 that more components were up than down. Not all the news was positive, as initial claims for unemployment insurance and help wanted advertising were both down sharply. |
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HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11262
Location: Los Angeles, California
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| Posted: Mon May 18, 2009 5:31 pm Post subject: |
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UCLA Anderson Forecast releases its latest economic outlook for San Diego County:
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20090515005050&newsLang=en
| Quote: | The UCLA Anderson Forecast today released its annual economic forecast for San Diego County. The Forecast states the official end month for the national recession is likely to be early in the second half of 2009, and the worst of the problems for San Diego will then be over. The unemployment rate for the nation and San Diego is likely to continue to elevate until growth becomes strong enough to absorb new entrants into the labor market.
“As the U.S. and California economies continue to contract, San Diego’s unemployment rate will grow to 10.3% in 2009. The deterioration in the local economy is led by growing layoffs in non-residential construction, manufacturing and retail jobs,” said Jerry Nickelsburg, senior economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast. “But there is light at the end of the tunnel. A forecast turnaround in the U.S. and California economies later this year should begin the recovery process in San Diego by the end of the year.”
Because 2009 will be a rough year for California, which has larger intrinsic problems than the nation, the San Diego County economy will remain weak. The commercial real estate markets have softened along with the labor markets, and more problems with refinancing this year could weaken the office market even further. |
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HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11262
Location: Los Angeles, California
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HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11262
Location: Los Angeles, California
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| Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2009 10:15 am Post subject: |
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Latest leading (February 2009) indicators for San Diego County. Readings make a new low:
http://home.sandiego.edu/~agin/usdlei/lei09feb.htm
| Quote: | | March 26, 2009 -- The University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County fell 2.0 percent in February. Four of the six components in the Index -- building permits, initial claims for unemployment insurance, consumer confidence, and help wanted advertising -- were sharply negative during month, and a fifth -- the outlook for the national economy -- was down moderately. The only positive component was local stock prices, and it was up only slightly. February’s decline was the largest one month drop ever in the USD Index, and marked its 34th decrease in 35 months. |
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HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11262
Location: Los Angeles, California
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| Posted: Fri Dec 19, 2008 11:39 pm Post subject: |
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Latest leading (November) indicators for San Diego County. Second largest monthly decline ever:
http://home.sandiego.edu/~agin/usdlei/lei08nov.htm
| Quote: | | The University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County fell 1.9 percent in November. This was the second largest drop ever in the Index, topped only by October’s drop of 2.3 percent. Every component was down, and with the exception of the outlook for the national economy, they were all down significantly, as defined by a more than one percent change for the month. With November’s drop, the USD Index has now fallen in 31 of the last 32 months. |
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