Lehman (LEH)

[rffrydr]

The most mortgage exposed investment bank brings cheers before the Fed Cut:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/63bda490-6534-11dc-bf89-0000779fd2ac.html

[HenryTo]

LMR,

Anything is possible in these kind of markets - where investors are in "liquidation mode" and will sell anything to get into cash. S&P 500 futures are down 40 points as we speak. More importantly, it depends on what happens to the "big fry", AIG, and others like WaMu and Merrill Lynch. The former is now trying to raise $10 billion by tomorrow morning while Merrill is tying the knot with Bank of America. I expect the Fed to adopt an easing bias if not outright cut by 25 bps to 50 bps this Tuesday.

On the other side of the coin, the good thing now is that the CEOs of investment banks and others are now recognizing the urgent need to get this crisis solved once and for all - no matter what the dilution/costs are to the current Board and shareholders. The will help restore the integrity of the US financial system sooner rather than latter.

Best regards,

Henry

[lmrhoades]

Henry or others...
What happens if Lehman goes bankrupt and the fed does not cut this week?
Are we looking at a potential 1000pt or more drop in the DOW?
_________________
LMR

[HenryTo]

Wall Street prepares for a possible bankruptcy filing by Lehman:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeWvsWPyOd1c&refer=home

[HenryTo]

From the WSJ:
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BREAKING NEWS:
Barclays claims to be walking away from a Lehman deal but could return, sources familiar with the situation say. The current deal structure would require a Barclays shareholder vote. Government reluctance to provide funding remains a deal hurdle. More details to come.

[HenryTo]

Barclays pulls out of talks to buy Lehman:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZvzZVTCUEKs&refer=home

[rffrydr]

Now....it's getting done:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/09/14/15838/lehman-its-okay-bobs-on-the-case/
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

Insider's insider thought LEH bought six months--some of the valuations tossed around. Looks to shed 5000 jobs...starting from the top. Ave. tenure of partner said to be 4 years.

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/Economics/On_Economy/v5gMVPyLrEHw.mp3


Analyst Hintz Doesn't Expect Lehman `Funding Meltdown' 18:00 9/11/2008 Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Brad Hintz, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein &
Co., talks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene about Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s plan to sell a majority stake in its asset-management unit, spin off
real-estate holdings and cut
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f3586ede-80ca-11dd-82dd-000077b07658.html

[HenryTo]

US Government to help divvy up the pieces and broker a sale of Lehman:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/11/AR2008091102580.html?hpid%3Dtopnews&sub=new

[HenryTo]

Rumors of a buyout by Goldman are false, according to this article:
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Goldman Sachs is not buying Lehman: sources
Thursday September 11, 1:01 pm ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS - News) is not pursuing an acquisition of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE:LEH - News), reflecting concerns that integrating two large investment banks would be too disruptive, sources familiar with the situation said on Thursday.

As Lehman stock plunged 37 percent to a new low of $4.52 a share, there was market speculation that Goldman, the largest and strongest securities firm on Wall Street, would step in and acquire its struggling rival.

While reporting a third-quarter loss and a series of restructuring moves, Lehman on Wednesday also announced it was "examining all strategic alternatives to maximize shareholder value." Some analysts and investors interpreted the remark as meaning the Lehman was looking to sell the firm.

Goldman declined to comment, citing its policy on market speculation. Lehman declined to make an immediate comment.

[HenryTo]

Also need to get back to a model when investment bankers offered advice and only take risk at the IPO stage. Diversification into asset management, prime brokerage, etc, continues to make sense but the "hedge fund model" has blown up in their faces. Lehman and other banks cannot compete with HFs (read private partnerships) with their 2/20 fee structure. It makes no sense for the best HF managers to stay at Lehman or even Goldman.

No doubt the private equity investors are having a field day today. Note that TPG has over $30 billion in cold hard cash:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alaxZ3VB7A8o&refer=home

[rffrydr]

Despite the markets dim view LEH perhaps offers the template: hive off a bank. We need to go back to fundamentals, back when banks were banks--and held to maturity. "Mark to market" has proven too high an aspiration for our markets, who never were and never will be "free and fair."

2yrs duration does alot of cleanup for everyone involved.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

Lehman bet in March that the Fed's PDCF would solve its liquidity problems - and lost the bet. It now has one last chance to save itself - and it better hurry up.
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Lehman must convince Wall Street it can deliver
Thursday September 11, 12:05 am ET
By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer
After unveiling its rescue plan, troubled investment bank Lehman Brothers now must deliver

NEW YORK (AP) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. has presented its rescue plan, now it has to convince Wall Street it can make good on its promises.

On Wednesday, the 158-year-old investment bank outlined a blueprint to sell off its well-respected investment management unit and spin off its commercial real estate assets. The strategy is part of a last-ditch effort to rescue the investment bank from bad bets on real estate-related holdings that have already laid low other storied Wall Street firms.

Lehman Chief Executive xxx Fuld, 62, the longest serving CEO on Wall Street, also said the firm would examine all other options -- including a sale of the company he joined right out of college.

For investors, the strategy seemed long on hope, short on details and raised questions about timing and execution, analysts said. Investors had hoped to see a solid plan in place to offset almost $6.5 billion of losses during the past two quarters.

Lehman's shares fell 54 cents, or about 7 percent, to $7.25 on Wednesday. They shed 4.5 percent more in after hours trading, after dropping about 45 percent on Tuesday.

Wall Street's uncertainty also showed up Wednesday in the cost for insuring Lehman's debt against default. The insurance, known as credit default swaps, rose to 6.10 percentage points from 4.75 percentage points after Lehman rolled out its strategy. Those insurance costs are now greater than those of former rival Bear Stearns shortly before was rescued by a Federal Reserve-backed plan in March.

The nation's fourth-largest investment bank plans to sell a 55 percent stake in its investment management division, which includes its prized Neuberger Berman asset management unit. Lehman said it is in advanced talks with several bidders, but refused to give a timeline about when a deal would take place.

Investors were discouraged that no buyer had been named. Lehman began pitching a deal to private-equity firms two months ago. Analysts believe the sale could fetch about $3 billion.

"This is agonizing for shareholders," said Mark Williams, a professor of finance at Boston University School of Management. "Fuld was supposed to have a war room started in March, when Bear Stearns nearly collapsed, to solve these problems, and at this point he has failed miserably."

Arrayed against the plan: The current financial crisis shows no sign of ending soon, credit conditions remain tight and big acquisitions are rare. Big institutional investors -- like state-owned sovereign wealth funds and private-equity firms -- aren't as willing to make major investments.

If all else fails, Fuld left open the option of selling the company.

"We remain committed to examining all strategic alternatives to maximize shareholder value," Fuld said on a conference call.

Further, the firm is also taking a big bet that a spin off of its commercial real estate assets will get a strong market reception in early 2009. The new entity will be called Real Estate Investments Global, and will be run by independent management.

Williams said he believes Fuld now has a limited amount of time, perhaps until Monday, to unveil a bona fide deal or run the risk of shares tumbling even further. And, he said, that could lead to a worst-case scenario where rumors about the company cause anxious trading partners to pull business -- a scenario that felled Bear Stearns six months ago.

Wall Street remains skittish about financial stocks since a run on Bear Stearns caused the U.S. government to orchestrate its sale to JPMorgan Chase & Co. in March. Lehman, the biggest U.S. underwriter of mortgage-backed securities, was automatically scrutinized.

Global banks have lost more than $300 billion from write-downs since the housing slump evolved into a full-blown credit crunch.

Unlike Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers has access to funds from the Federal Reserve through the central bank's discount window. The government has allowed investment banks to borrow money to cover short-term needs, an ability that only commercial banks had in the past. The borrowing could buy Lehman some time while it works out its restructuring.

Fuld also is one of the most respected and popular bankers on Wall Street. He led his firm back from major capital shortages during the financial crisis in 1998. Analysts said he inspires confidence that he can reinvent the bank despite one of the worst economic climates since the Depression.

"Every other major Wall Street bank was trying to duplicate the Lehman model that Fuld created," said Brad Hintz, an analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein and a former Lehman chief financial officer. "He is extremely well liked and respected inside and outside the firm."

Hintz said he is confident the company has enough capital or that Fuld "would be selling his office furniture on eBay if he had to." He said his former boss has no intention of giving up the helm, and that the plan will keep Lehman in business.

"They are getting rid of the risk positions and keeping the company together because xxx Fuld knows his franchise is good," Hintz said. "They just wound back the clock by about ten years to a time when they were mainly a fixed income shop, and they were profitable back then. The management is strong, and their mission is to rebuild."

[Suomodo]

Lehman can tap Fed lending facilities .. and Korea needs US a lot ... even GS can save the day

If Lehman is fixed by the next Fed meeting on tuesday and bottoms hold we get a relief for a couple of weeks...

[HenryTo]

The KDB situation is still in flux:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atjLt8nvUSKY&refer=home