Look what the dollar is doing this morning

HenryTo

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=DX&o=&a=D&z=610x300&d=medium&b=CANDLE&st=

Hope I haven't jinxed myself here - the U.S. Dollar Index is trying to pierce the early February and mid-April resistance as we speak.

Henry

HenryTo · Posted: Thu May 12, 2005 10:37 am Post subject: CRB

In the spirit of things, the CRB Index declined below 300 today. Guys, I will provide a more detail response sometime this weekend - still very painfully studying for the actuarial exam here. Sad

Also, just FYI, Jim Rogers has a very short intervew in the latest issue of "Active Trader" - discussing his longer-term bullish views on commodities and his own commodities index fund.

nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 2408

Hey Pete, I posted on the administration's reasons for a weak dollar policy and its impacts over here:
http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=400
I'd be interested in your thoughts on that subject, as well as a longer-term strategy for trading the dollar vs the euro, posted here:
http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=394

The Euro has two things going for it:
1. It's not the dollar.
2. It has the best chance, of any current fiat currency, of replacing the dollar as the official pricing currency for international exchange of oil.

If the world switches to "petro-euros" from "petro-dollars" - even a moderate if not complete switch - the dollar will have a correction (conniption?)

pete richardson · Posted: Thu May 12, 2005 8:05 am Post subject:

US Dollar Needs To Stay Low

The GWB Admin. does not want a stronger US $, and I do not blame them. The Euro is overvalued (pig with lipstick), so traders would like to reverse positions and ride an improvement in US trade / current Account
data. But, the US can ill afford another such run-up. A bit more of a rally in $USD is ok, but it would not surprise me if Snow and / or Greenspan
offer cautionary words or if the media is "tipped" that foeign central banks
might use a rally to lighten US$ holdings. As I see it, the $ needs to stay low for a long time.

nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 2408

Yesterday's strength relative to 90 DMA is 1.018. If it's any consolation, that's mildly bullish for the dollar over the next 90 days.